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That seems to be the strategy of tons of countries (although in most case they do not publicly state it that clearly yet, or at least they focus their narrative
by temac 7y ago
That seems to be the strategy of tons of countries (although in most case they do not publicly state it that clearly yet, or at least they focus their narrative on something else) and I'm wondering if there is another reasonable one now that it is so much widespread, and given the characteristics of the virus. It is reasonable to expect there are tons of "healthy" carriers, at least largely healthy enough so they don't change much and go on with their life (except now with maybe slightly less social contacts, but I'm not sure this has any threshold effect except in Chinese like approaches). Also we have clusters in places we previously thought cleared in previous phases, so we just are not good enough to contain, and unwilling to even do hard quarantines anyway.
So can this virus be stopped before herd immunity by just quarantining the whole world for a few weeks? Maybe, but will we be willing or even able to actually do that? Doubtful -- if we actually attempt that, the side effects might be worse. Plus the whole world must participate -- it likely won't happen.
So that the kind of consideration that are likely discussed, and models run to determine the likely outcome of diverse scenario.
The death toll will be high.
- matwood 7y ago> I'm wondering if there is another reasonable one now that it is so much widespread Everyone keeps saying there are many more people infected than is known. If true, is there really any other option than accepting many will become infected until herd immunity kicks in? I'm also not sure quarantines can really work with this virus. The fact the large majority of cases are mild, makes the virus incredibly easy to spread. It remains to be seen if China can keep the virus at bay while they remove the quarantine.