6 ms·

If the UK really goes through with the "infect 60% of its own population to get herd immunity" strategy, every other country is going to ban travel from there.

by Leary 7y ago

If the UK really goes through with the "infect 60% of its own population to get herd immunity" strategy, every other country is going to ban travel from there. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-...

johneth 7y ago
Just to counter that point: https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821515526897664 https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/123882151552689766... (this is a thread, click the tweet to expand)
- TheOtherHobbes 7y ago
  I honestly have no idea what that Tweet is trying to say. The UK government explicitly used the phrase "herd immunity" in a press conference, so that seems to be an explicit objective - even though the mutability of the virus is not yet known. The rest seems like babble. No, closing schools for two weeks will not make the problem go away - but it will buy time, to try and set up revised working and living arrangements for everyone. So what is the point of doing almost nothing? I'm not seeing any other country looking at the UK and saying "Oh, I wish we'd thought of that."
  - johneth 7y ago
    > I honestly have no idea what that Tweet is trying to say. It's a thread (click the tweet). > The UK government explicitly used the phrase "herd immunity" in a press conference, so that seems to be an explicit objective - even though the mutability of the virus is not yet known. Did you watch the full press conference, where the phrase 'herd immunity' was described in context with the main objective, namely to ensure the NHS can cope with demand over the next several months. If you haven't, I'd recommend you do; they're uncut on YouTube. They explain their strategy better than I could here.
sadfklsjlkjwt 7y ago
Never before has a country consented to group suicide on the scale the British are doing at the moment. I hope every other country isolates us fast. The epidemic will be terrifying in the UK.
- tallyhotallyho 7y ago
  You are evoking the rhetorical excellence of Churchill to make the least Chuchillian statement ever. The epidemic will be mildly inconvenient and relatively insignificant. Some people will die, because the virus is already here. Your hysteria is pointless.
  - sadfklsjlkjwt 7y ago
    If a conservative 20% of 70 million people get a disease where a conservative 10% need to be in intensive care (NB people who need intensive care tend to need 3 weeks treatment) that is 0.2x0.1x70,000,000 = 1.4 million intensive care beds. My parents will be some of those that need the beds. They won't get them. They will die. In the nicest most civil way I am asking you to think about your words and actions and how they might impact others. If you want to express your lack of care for the lives of our loved ones to people you meet in real life you should be very careful how you do so.
    - tallyhotallyho 7y ago
      You are continuing with pushing your hysteria. You are making up figures, even making up the population figures. Your emotional posturing and worthier-than-thou attitude is grating, I'm caring for my father that has cardiovascular issues, he is the most at risk one could be. He seems relaxed.
  - TheOtherHobbes 7y ago
    You clearly haven't done the math. The UK's population is 66 million. According to the government's own estimates at least 60% will become infected, and the final case fatality rate will be around 1%. Hysteria over 400,000 extra deaths may well be pointless, but white hot fury over this pointless and partially avoidable loss of life is hardly misplaced. Never mind that a significant proportion of survivors - who will outnumber the deaths by some non-trivial multiple - will be left with permanent lung damage.

by Leary 7y ago

johneth 7y ago

Just to counter that point: https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821515526897664 https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/123882151552689766... (this is a thread, click the tweet to expand)

TheOtherHobbes 7y ago
I honestly have no idea what that Tweet is trying to say. The UK government explicitly used the phrase "herd immunity" in a press conference, so that seems to be an explicit objective - even though the mutability of the virus is not yet known. The rest seems like babble. No, closing schools for two weeks will not make the problem go away - but it will buy time, to try and set up revised working and living arrangements for everyone. So what is the point of doing almost nothing? I'm not seeing any other country looking at the UK and saying "Oh, I wish we'd thought of that."
- johneth 7y ago
  > I honestly have no idea what that Tweet is trying to say. It's a thread (click the tweet). > The UK government explicitly used the phrase "herd immunity" in a press conference, so that seems to be an explicit objective - even though the mutability of the virus is not yet known. Did you watch the full press conference, where the phrase 'herd immunity' was described in context with the main objective, namely to ensure the NHS can cope with demand over the next several months. If you haven't, I'd recommend you do; they're uncut on YouTube. They explain their strategy better than I could here.

sadfklsjlkjwt 7y ago

Never before has a country consented to group suicide on the scale the British are doing at the moment. I hope every other country isolates us fast. The epidemic will be terrifying in the UK.

tallyhotallyho 7y ago
You are evoking the rhetorical excellence of Churchill to make the least Chuchillian statement ever. The epidemic will be mildly inconvenient and relatively insignificant. Some people will die, because the virus is already here. Your hysteria is pointless.
- sadfklsjlkjwt 7y ago
  If a conservative 20% of 70 million people get a disease where a conservative 10% need to be in intensive care (NB people who need intensive care tend to need 3 weeks treatment) that is 0.2x0.1x70,000,000 = 1.4 million intensive care beds. My parents will be some of those that need the beds. They won't get them. They will die. In the nicest most civil way I am asking you to think about your words and actions and how they might impact others. If you want to express your lack of care for the lives of our loved ones to people you meet in real life you should be very careful how you do so.
  - tallyhotallyho 7y ago
    You are continuing with pushing your hysteria. You are making up figures, even making up the population figures. Your emotional posturing and worthier-than-thou attitude is grating, I'm caring for my father that has cardiovascular issues, he is the most at risk one could be. He seems relaxed.
- TheOtherHobbes 7y ago
  You clearly haven't done the math. The UK's population is 66 million. According to the government's own estimates at least 60% will become infected, and the final case fatality rate will be around 1%. Hysteria over 400,000 extra deaths may well be pointless, but white hot fury over this pointless and partially avoidable loss of life is hardly misplaced. Never mind that a significant proportion of survivors - who will outnumber the deaths by some non-trivial multiple - will be left with permanent lung damage.