4 ms·

Damn, you must have made billions on the stock market since you already knew in January what was gonna happen.

by folli 7y ago

ajross 7y ago
Why are people like this? Everyone knew more testing (the subject at hand) was needed. The second the first case was detected in the US (January 22) there was instant coverage of the inability of people in Seattle to get tests. And there were no tests. And there remained no tests. And only now, as the US clusters have started to spread out of control, are we seeing a significant acceleration in test availability (c.f. the linked article, about quick approval for a new test mechanism). And we know this wasn't impossible, because many nations (South Korea, Taiwan, Japan) got this right and managed extensive testing. Why are people resistant to this argument? We. Fucked. Up. It's maybe not productive to argue about recriminations at this point, but if so it's even worse to try to excuse it away or pretend that it didn't happen. It was a terrible mistake, and right now it looks like lots of people are going to die because of it.
- briffle 7y ago
  The State of Oregon lab can process 80 samples a day. Every person gets at least 2 samples taken. They are waiting on >150 samples to be tested...
AriaMinaei 7y ago
> you must have made billions on the stock market Shorting the market in January and February would've been more of a bet on government inaction than a bet on any inherent characteristics of the virus. Many predicted large epidemics in multiple countries, but the CDC/FDA testing fiasco, or the lackluster response in EU wasn't easy to predict. I agree with OP that "everyone should stop pretending that 'no one could have known'". The probability of having a large epidemic in each country was significant, definitely above 2%. That number alone would've warranted ramping up production of test kits and sanitary supplies, building fever clinics, doing emergency drills, and setting up some data sharing infrastructure between healthcare providers. Most developed countries didn't do any of that.
8note 7y ago
Not everyone is living for the profits
SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
Billions is a high ask; almost nobody has the kinds of capital needed to do that, and even for those that do, a highly levered bet that hundreds of thousands of people are going to die is pretty slimy. Lots of people (including me) did sell substantial amounts of stock before mid-February to ensure we have money available.
- esoterica 7y ago
  If you sold before February you were also betting that people were going to die. What makes your actions less slimy?
  - leetcrew 7y ago
    I guess you're getting downvoted because of your tone, but I think you're essentially right. selling off a bunch of stock in expectation of a looming crisis is a choice that leaves your buyers holding the bag when it strikes. it's not fundamentally different than using leverage, options, or whatever exotic investment tool you fancy. people ascribe an arbitrary moral difference between selling to prevent losses and more active investing to seek a profit. in both cases people are making a bet on the outcome of an uncertain event. some will win and some will lose. regardless, moves made by a small private investor don't really matter in the grand scheme of things. just don't panic sell.

Damn, you must have made billions on the stock market since you already knew in January what was gonna happen.

by folli 7y ago

Damn, you must have made billions on the stock market since you already knew in January what was gonna happen.

Why are people like this? Everyone knew more testing (the subject at hand) was needed. The second the first case was detected in the US (January 22) there was instant coverage of the inability of people in Seattle to get tests. And there were no tests. And there remained no tests. And only now, as the US clusters have started to spread out of control, are we seeing a significant acceleration in test availability (c.f. the linked article, about quick approval for a new test mechanism). And we know this wasn't impossible, because many nations (South Korea, Taiwan, Japan) got this right and managed extensive testing. Why are people resistant to this argument? We. Fucked. Up. It's maybe not productive to argue about recriminations at this point, but if so it's even worse to try to excuse it away or pretend that it didn't happen. It was a terrible mistake, and right now it looks like lots of people are going to die because of it.

briffle 7y ago
The State of Oregon lab can process 80 samples a day. Every person gets at least 2 samples taken. They are waiting on >150 samples to be tested...

AriaMinaei 7y ago

> you must have made billions on the stock market Shorting the market in January and February would've been more of a bet on government inaction than a bet on any inherent characteristics of the virus. Many predicted large epidemics in multiple countries, but the CDC/FDA testing fiasco, or the lackluster response in EU wasn't easy to predict. I agree with OP that "everyone should stop pretending that 'no one could have known'". The probability of having a large epidemic in each country was significant, definitely above 2%. That number alone would've warranted ramping up production of test kits and sanitary supplies, building fever clinics, doing emergency drills, and setting up some data sharing infrastructure between healthcare providers. Most developed countries didn't do any of that.

8note 7y ago

Not everyone is living for the profits

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago

Billions is a high ask; almost nobody has the kinds of capital needed to do that, and even for those that do, a highly levered bet that hundreds of thousands of people are going to die is pretty slimy. Lots of people (including me) did sell substantial amounts of stock before mid-February to ensure we have money available.

esoterica 7y ago
If you sold before February you were also betting that people were going to die. What makes your actions less slimy?
- leetcrew 7y ago
  I guess you're getting downvoted because of your tone, but I think you're essentially right. selling off a bunch of stock in expectation of a looming crisis is a choice that leaves your buyers holding the bag when it strikes. it's not fundamentally different than using leverage, options, or whatever exotic investment tool you fancy. people ascribe an arbitrary moral difference between selling to prevent losses and more active investing to seek a profit. in both cases people are making a bet on the outcome of an uncertain event. some will win and some will lose. regardless, moves made by a small private investor don't really matter in the grand scheme of things. just don't panic sell.