5 ms·

> South Korea has since reported 67 deaths out of nearly 8,000 confirmed cases, after testing more than 222,000 people. In contrast, Italy has had 1,016 deaths

by rb808 7y ago

> South Korea has since reported 67 deaths out of nearly 8,000 confirmed cases, after testing more than 222,000 people. In contrast, Italy has had 1,016 deaths and identified more than 15,000 cases after carrying out more than 73,000 tests on an unspecified number of people. Surely the testing is a huge factor. Test more people you'll find more people infected, so the fatality rate will get smaller. If you're like the US and test very few you get the huge fatality rates we saw in Washington. If you could quickly and accurately test everyone in the country today we would know how to isolate and the whole thing would be over very soon. Not having a reliable test makes this whole problem as bad as it is.

js2 7y ago
Singapore is probably doing as best as any country could hope to. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/12/814522489/singapore-wins-praise-for-its-covid-19-strategy-the-u-s-does-not https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/12/8145224... Also, as an American, I'm embarrassed by my country's response and by how my president addresses the nation. PM Lee shows how you talk to your country: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mYs1Uyx3c8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mYs1Uyx3c8 His original address five weeks prior: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dExr76Wckr8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dExr76Wckr8
- blululu 7y ago
  I would be proud to vote for someone like this.
  - mx24 7y ago
    Let’s not get carried away in our praise of Singapore’s leaders. Singapore is an authoritarian state and Lee is a part of the ruling family.
    - quaquaqua1 7y ago
      For all those interested in how Singapore can possibly be a duality of "sometimes good sometimes bad", just look at how Singapore treats its Malay population as second class citizens. For example, if a Singaporean Malay marries a Malaysian Malay, there is still a large chance their Permanent Residency application will be denied. This usually doesn't happen to someone who marries Han Chinese, of which Singapore is 70%.
- AlchemistCamp 7y ago
  Singapore has been competent, but Taiwan's response has been more impressive. It's very close to the hot zone, millions of people travel to and from mainland China every year, it has roughly the population of Australia living on 10% of the land Japan has, the WHO refuses any cooperation, and yet there have been under 50 cases and no local transmission. Not only that, but as a democratic state, Taiwan's control measures have been remarkably measured. I'd credit two factors: 1) Imposing travel limits three weeks before China even admitted there was an outbreak. After SARS, the TW government had a plan for this epidemic and a healthy skepticism for both official news and the WHO. 2) Taiwan has a relatively high trust society. People generally trust the local CDC and make a genuine effort to take preventative measures, even those primarily for the safety of others. A phone alert is generally all that's needed as a quarantine reminder for those exposed.
  - dmix 7y ago
    > TW government had a plan for this epidemic and a healthy skepticism for both official news and the WHO. Which is notable that the US CDC seems to be following WHO closer than anyone, at least early on...
  - woutr_be 7y ago
    > After SARS, the TW government had a plan for this epidemic and a healthy skepticism for both official news and the WHO. That's not surprising, since the WHO doesn't recognise Taiwan as an independent country and refuses to help them, I'm glad they were able to take their own successful measurements.
  - billfruit 7y ago
    China reported Covid19 to WHO on 31 Dec 2019, do you say that travel curbs were put in Taiwan in early December?
    - kijin 7y ago
      I think the parent is referring to when China officially, publicly admitted the problem, which was three weeks after it notified the WHO. Taiwan implemented more stringent inspection requirements for people arriving from the Wuhan area as soon as China notified WHO, on 31 Dec 2019.
- stevenwoo 7y ago
  JAMA article about Taiwan - they made changes after SARS to have a faster response and what they did worked to contain the spread even though there is a large flow of people to/from China. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689
- powerapple 7y ago
  Being a small country definitely helps in situation like this, it is not likely US as a big country can be as effective as Singapore. What do you want the government to do? lock down cities with troops?
pascalxus 7y ago
i don't understand how knowing that you have the virus makes it less likely that you will die from it. There's no cure right? and at this point, anyone with a flu or cold will assume they have it and act accordingly, right?
- snewman 7y ago
  It doesn't change the actual odds, it changes the perceived / measured odds. Imagine 100 people contract the virus, 10 develop serious symptoms, and one dies. In country A, with widespread testing, 40 of the 100 are identified. The visible statistics are 40 cases, one death, death rate of 2.5%. In country B, with poor testing, only the 10 with serious symptoms are identified. The visible statistics are 10 cases, one death, death rate of 10%. Again, this is about the reported statistics, not the underlying truth of the disease.
  - pmoriarty 7y ago
    It also changes how people react and what they do. Right now I see so many people carrying on their life as usual, because they think there aren't many infected people around them. That impression is a consequence of the lack of testing. It's likely that there are quite a few people around them who are sick and spreading this disease, and if more people realized that they'd act differently. Resources and isolation measures are also directed to places where there are a lot of known infections, but if those infections are undetected very little gets done about them. The relative lack of testing is a nightmare in the making.
  - trianglem 7y ago
    So based on that Italy’s true infected count is 15 times what they’re reporting or closer to 225,000 cases.
    - dboreham 7y ago
      There was a Dr from John's Hopkins on CNBC tonight who said he estimated there are 250k-500k infected people in the US right now.
Goladus 7y ago
Edit: If you're saying that the "reported" death rate "appears" lower based on reported statistics, then yes testing more people can make it seem like the actual death rate is lower. Otherwise: > 67 deaths out of nearly 8,000 cases > 1,016 deaths and identified more than 15,000 > Surely the testing is a huge factor. No, you can not be sure at all, especially since it is well-known that hospitals have limited capacity to treat pneumonia (ventilators and doctors trained to use them). Get sick when hospital has no capacity to treat you, and you're more likely to die. Death rate will increase very rapidly when rates of infection pass a certain point. Testing is important, yes, but the real important part is slowing the transmission rate to a manageable level. > If you could quickly and accurately test everyone in the country today we would know how to isolate and the whole thing would be over very soon. Only if you can do it more-or-less completely. Otherwise, you're actually prolonging the problem. The reason we want to slow the transmission of the virus is to keep life-threatening cases at a reasonably low rate.
joe_the_user 7y ago
Surely the testing is a huge factor. Test more people you'll find more people infected, so the fatality rate will get smaller. If you're like the US and test very few you get the huge fatality rates we saw in Washington. Uh, yes, South Korea testing lots of people shows the overall fatality rate given a functioning medical system. It also allows much better isolation, understanding of the progression of the disease, stopping that progression and so-forth. So sure, the Korea rates don't prove Korea has magic dust that cures the problem but shows the Korean model is effective.
Camillo 7y ago
If testing were a huge factor, we'd expect to see a disaster in Japan, which is doing _very_ little testing. Instead, it seems to be doing even better than South Korea. I think the masks are more likely to be having an impact.
malandrew 7y ago
> If you're like the US and test very few you get the huge fatality rates we saw in Washington. Most of the fatality rate in Washington is due to it spreading in a single nursing home. IIRC, it was 19 deaths from that one nursing home. More vigorous testing comparable to SK likely wouldn't have caught the issue in this one nursing home in time as it spread like wildfire there. Only if the testing had caught the single employee that was the source would it have made a difference.
12thwonder 7y ago
> If you could quickly and accurately test everyone in the country today we would know how to isolate and the whole thing would be over very soon. i don't understand. let's say that tests are super accurate, a negative test result does not mean you won't spread virus in the future. You may have virus the next day or an hour later. tests are important for treatments but i don't think they are effective as a basis for isolation.

by rb808 7y ago

js2 7y ago

Singapore is probably doing as best as any country could hope to. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/12/814522489/singapore-wins-praise-for-its-covid-19-strategy-the-u-s-does-not https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/12/8145224... Also, as an American, I'm embarrassed by my country's response and by how my president addresses the nation. PM Lee shows how you talk to your country: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mYs1Uyx3c8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mYs1Uyx3c8 His original address five weeks prior: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dExr76Wckr8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dExr76Wckr8

blululu 7y ago
I would be proud to vote for someone like this.
- mx24 7y ago
  Let’s not get carried away in our praise of Singapore’s leaders. Singapore is an authoritarian state and Lee is a part of the ruling family.
  - quaquaqua1 7y ago
    For all those interested in how Singapore can possibly be a duality of "sometimes good sometimes bad", just look at how Singapore treats its Malay population as second class citizens. For example, if a Singaporean Malay marries a Malaysian Malay, there is still a large chance their Permanent Residency application will be denied. This usually doesn't happen to someone who marries Han Chinese, of which Singapore is 70%.
AlchemistCamp 7y ago
Singapore has been competent, but Taiwan's response has been more impressive. It's very close to the hot zone, millions of people travel to and from mainland China every year, it has roughly the population of Australia living on 10% of the land Japan has, the WHO refuses any cooperation, and yet there have been under 50 cases and no local transmission. Not only that, but as a democratic state, Taiwan's control measures have been remarkably measured. I'd credit two factors: 1) Imposing travel limits three weeks before China even admitted there was an outbreak. After SARS, the TW government had a plan for this epidemic and a healthy skepticism for both official news and the WHO. 2) Taiwan has a relatively high trust society. People generally trust the local CDC and make a genuine effort to take preventative measures, even those primarily for the safety of others. A phone alert is generally all that's needed as a quarantine reminder for those exposed.
- dmix 7y ago
  > TW government had a plan for this epidemic and a healthy skepticism for both official news and the WHO. Which is notable that the US CDC seems to be following WHO closer than anyone, at least early on...
- woutr_be 7y ago
  > After SARS, the TW government had a plan for this epidemic and a healthy skepticism for both official news and the WHO. That's not surprising, since the WHO doesn't recognise Taiwan as an independent country and refuses to help them, I'm glad they were able to take their own successful measurements.
- billfruit 7y ago
  China reported Covid19 to WHO on 31 Dec 2019, do you say that travel curbs were put in Taiwan in early December?
  - kijin 7y ago
    I think the parent is referring to when China officially, publicly admitted the problem, which was three weeks after it notified the WHO. Taiwan implemented more stringent inspection requirements for people arriving from the Wuhan area as soon as China notified WHO, on 31 Dec 2019.
stevenwoo 7y ago
JAMA article about Taiwan - they made changes after SARS to have a faster response and what they did worked to contain the spread even though there is a large flow of people to/from China. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689
powerapple 7y ago
Being a small country definitely helps in situation like this, it is not likely US as a big country can be as effective as Singapore. What do you want the government to do? lock down cities with troops?

pascalxus 7y ago

i don't understand how knowing that you have the virus makes it less likely that you will die from it. There's no cure right? and at this point, anyone with a flu or cold will assume they have it and act accordingly, right?

snewman 7y ago
It doesn't change the actual odds, it changes the perceived / measured odds. Imagine 100 people contract the virus, 10 develop serious symptoms, and one dies. In country A, with widespread testing, 40 of the 100 are identified. The visible statistics are 40 cases, one death, death rate of 2.5%. In country B, with poor testing, only the 10 with serious symptoms are identified. The visible statistics are 10 cases, one death, death rate of 10%. Again, this is about the reported statistics, not the underlying truth of the disease.
- pmoriarty 7y ago
  It also changes how people react and what they do. Right now I see so many people carrying on their life as usual, because they think there aren't many infected people around them. That impression is a consequence of the lack of testing. It's likely that there are quite a few people around them who are sick and spreading this disease, and if more people realized that they'd act differently. Resources and isolation measures are also directed to places where there are a lot of known infections, but if those infections are undetected very little gets done about them. The relative lack of testing is a nightmare in the making.
- trianglem 7y ago
  So based on that Italy’s true infected count is 15 times what they’re reporting or closer to 225,000 cases.
  - dboreham 7y ago
    There was a Dr from John's Hopkins on CNBC tonight who said he estimated there are 250k-500k infected people in the US right now.

Goladus 7y ago

Edit: If you're saying that the "reported" death rate "appears" lower based on reported statistics, then yes testing more people can make it seem like the actual death rate is lower. Otherwise: > 67 deaths out of nearly 8,000 cases > 1,016 deaths and identified more than 15,000 > Surely the testing is a huge factor. No, you can not be sure at all, especially since it is well-known that hospitals have limited capacity to treat pneumonia (ventilators and doctors trained to use them). Get sick when hospital has no capacity to treat you, and you're more likely to die. Death rate will increase very rapidly when rates of infection pass a certain point. Testing is important, yes, but the real important part is slowing the transmission rate to a manageable level. > If you could quickly and accurately test everyone in the country today we would know how to isolate and the whole thing would be over very soon. Only if you can do it more-or-less completely. Otherwise, you're actually prolonging the problem. The reason we want to slow the transmission of the virus is to keep life-threatening cases at a reasonably low rate.

joe_the_user 7y ago

Surely the testing is a huge factor. Test more people you'll find more people infected, so the fatality rate will get smaller. If you're like the US and test very few you get the huge fatality rates we saw in Washington. Uh, yes, South Korea testing lots of people shows the overall fatality rate given a functioning medical system. It also allows much better isolation, understanding of the progression of the disease, stopping that progression and so-forth. So sure, the Korea rates don't prove Korea has magic dust that cures the problem but shows the Korean model is effective.

Camillo 7y ago

If testing were a huge factor, we'd expect to see a disaster in Japan, which is doing _very_ little testing. Instead, it seems to be doing even better than South Korea. I think the masks are more likely to be having an impact.

malandrew 7y ago

> If you're like the US and test very few you get the huge fatality rates we saw in Washington. Most of the fatality rate in Washington is due to it spreading in a single nursing home. IIRC, it was 19 deaths from that one nursing home. More vigorous testing comparable to SK likely wouldn't have caught the issue in this one nursing home in time as it spread like wildfire there. Only if the testing had caught the single employee that was the source would it have made a difference.

12thwonder 7y ago

> If you could quickly and accurately test everyone in the country today we would know how to isolate and the whole thing would be over very soon. i don't understand. let's say that tests are super accurate, a negative test result does not mean you won't spread virus in the future. You may have virus the next day or an hour later. tests are important for treatments but i don't think they are effective as a basis for isolation.