4 ms·

>The economic cost of the first scenario (numerous deaths in peak period) would likely be the highest with the impact This is self-evident, both due to first-o

by dexen 7y ago

>The economic cost of the first scenario (numerous deaths in peak period) would likely be the highest with the impact This is self-evident, both due to first-order and second-order effects. How the author manages to stand it on its head is amazing. It's worth noting that approaching, or exceeding, the capacity of the medical system (or any other) drives the costs sky high by and of itself - not to mention other, unrelated cases that also need treatment. With a few weeks worth of disruption to healthcare, even mild cases of other illnesses can spiral out of control and become costly (or even deadly) on their own. I wouldn't read too much into a country having a muted or slow response to the pandemic; it's the expected outcome of political and economical systems differing across the globe. There is always a slow country to act, and its citizens might feel entitled to the kind of far-fetched speculation the author posted.

davedx 7y ago
> There is always the slowest country to act, and its citizens would feel entitled to the kind of far-fetched speculation the author posted. Sounds about right. Belgium and the Netherlands aren't doing very much yet. One interesting fact I discovered when discussing with my wife last night that I think does shape the discussion here: In the Netherlands, seasonal influenza has ~1% mortality rate -- in the U.S. it's more like 0.1%. This leads to different framings of the comparative severity of Coronavirus in the Netherlands.
- dexen 7y ago
  >In the Netherlands, seasonal influenza has ~1% mortality rate -- in the U.S. it's more like 0.1%. (I'm not a healthcare professional nor actuarian; the following is freehand speculation) There are two key factors. Firstly, USA is much less densely populated, with various additional compounding aspects: social stratification, with many segments of society living mostly in their own areas, and lesser dependence on mass transport. Modern technology and abundance of land allows maintaining a degree of isolation when needed. Secondly, the healthcare system in USA vs Netherlands is tale of semi-private vs nationalized system. The former has more incentives to be proactive and minimize costs, vs the later having incentives to make a good showing, with payments being assured anyway.
  - kalleboo 7y ago
    > The former has more incentives to be proactive and minimize costs On an individual basis perhaps in theory, but not on a population basis. See underinsured people afraid to go to a doctor until their condition is so bad it warrants an ER visit. The actual numbers of the cost-effectiveness of US healthcare also shows the complete opposite of "minimizing costs" where it's twice as expensive as any other system
- matwood 7y ago
  > In the Netherlands, seasonal influenza has ~1% mortality rate Yikes! If true, do you know why that is?
  - Udik 7y ago
    I don't know, but I live in the Netherlands (as an expat) and their approach to healthcare is legendary for its sloppiness. The most common joke is about doctors responding to any health complaint by handing some paracetamol and saying "come back in two weeks if you don't feel better". Three days ago the government held a special meeting about the coronavirus, in which they deliberated that people should stop shaking hands. That's all. They tell people who have come back from a high risk area and have flu symptoms NOT to call their gp and just stay home.
    - mtsr 7y ago
      Nevertheless health care outcomes on average are pretty good, if you look at things like life expectancy...
      - Udik 7y ago
        I'm not saying healthcare is bad ("sloppiness" wasn't a good choice of a term). In fact it's very well organised. It's more that the Dutch seem to be extremely... relaxed, maybe a bit fatalistic, about illness. It's a "suck it up" attitude. The fact that they're so slow in taking action now doesn't surprise me.
        hef19898 7y ago
        Maybe cultural. One of the reasons I love working with the Dutch is their calm professional approach to things. Not the worst trait to have in times of crisis.
    - DennisP 7y ago
      That's the generally accepted advice, unless you have shortness of breath.
- matteuan 7y ago
  >In the Netherlands, seasonal influenza has ~1% mortality rate -- in the U.S. it's more like 0.1% Completely false, it seems 0.1% also in the Netherlands. "In the Netherlands, our closest comparisons are the Mexican flu of 2009/2010, with a mortality rate of just 0.02%, and the regular flu epidemics, with an average mortality rate of 0.1%" from: https://healthcare-in-europe.com/en/news/on-the-implications-of-the-coronavirus.html https://healthcare-in-europe.com/en/news/on-the-implications...

by dexen 7y ago

davedx 7y ago

> There is always the slowest country to act, and its citizens would feel entitled to the kind of far-fetched speculation the author posted. Sounds about right. Belgium and the Netherlands aren't doing very much yet. One interesting fact I discovered when discussing with my wife last night that I think does shape the discussion here: In the Netherlands, seasonal influenza has ~1% mortality rate -- in the U.S. it's more like 0.1%. This leads to different framings of the comparative severity of Coronavirus in the Netherlands.

dexen 7y ago
>In the Netherlands, seasonal influenza has ~1% mortality rate -- in the U.S. it's more like 0.1%. (I'm not a healthcare professional nor actuarian; the following is freehand speculation) There are two key factors. Firstly, USA is much less densely populated, with various additional compounding aspects: social stratification, with many segments of society living mostly in their own areas, and lesser dependence on mass transport. Modern technology and abundance of land allows maintaining a degree of isolation when needed. Secondly, the healthcare system in USA vs Netherlands is tale of semi-private vs nationalized system. The former has more incentives to be proactive and minimize costs, vs the later having incentives to make a good showing, with payments being assured anyway.
- kalleboo 7y ago
  > The former has more incentives to be proactive and minimize costs On an individual basis perhaps in theory, but not on a population basis. See underinsured people afraid to go to a doctor until their condition is so bad it warrants an ER visit. The actual numbers of the cost-effectiveness of US healthcare also shows the complete opposite of "minimizing costs" where it's twice as expensive as any other system
matwood 7y ago
> In the Netherlands, seasonal influenza has ~1% mortality rate Yikes! If true, do you know why that is?
- Udik 7y ago
  I don't know, but I live in the Netherlands (as an expat) and their approach to healthcare is legendary for its sloppiness. The most common joke is about doctors responding to any health complaint by handing some paracetamol and saying "come back in two weeks if you don't feel better". Three days ago the government held a special meeting about the coronavirus, in which they deliberated that people should stop shaking hands. That's all. They tell people who have come back from a high risk area and have flu symptoms NOT to call their gp and just stay home.
  - mtsr 7y ago
    Nevertheless health care outcomes on average are pretty good, if you look at things like life expectancy...
    - Udik 7y ago
      I'm not saying healthcare is bad ("sloppiness" wasn't a good choice of a term). In fact it's very well organised. It's more that the Dutch seem to be extremely... relaxed, maybe a bit fatalistic, about illness. It's a "suck it up" attitude. The fact that they're so slow in taking action now doesn't surprise me.
      - hef19898 7y ago
        Maybe cultural. One of the reasons I love working with the Dutch is their calm professional approach to things. Not the worst trait to have in times of crisis.
  - DennisP 7y ago
    That's the generally accepted advice, unless you have shortness of breath.
matteuan 7y ago
>In the Netherlands, seasonal influenza has ~1% mortality rate -- in the U.S. it's more like 0.1% Completely false, it seems 0.1% also in the Netherlands. "In the Netherlands, our closest comparisons are the Mexican flu of 2009/2010, with a mortality rate of just 0.02%, and the regular flu epidemics, with an average mortality rate of 0.1%" from: https://healthcare-in-europe.com/en/news/on-the-implications-of-the-coronavirus.html https://healthcare-in-europe.com/en/news/on-the-implications...