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You're right that it's different, but this is nothing like the dot com bust. People could still do other work when that happened. Also note that equity busts ar
by lordnacho 7y ago
You're right that it's different, but this is nothing like the dot com bust. People could still do other work when that happened. Also note that equity busts are quite different from credit busts.
This really is a massive bomb under the economy. Credit is stretched by years of low rates and now a lot of things have to stop.
Other commentators hint at postponed spending, which would be good. But many things in the economy do not work that way. If you skip your holiday now, it's not coming back and the hotels and restaurants will not get that money later. Same with a number of other businesses.
- arcticbull 7y agoYou don’t think someone who was forced to cancel their February vacation wouldn’t take an August vacation once the situation sorted itself out?
- rjtavares 7y agoThis won't be sorted by August.
- arcticbull 7y agoCool, any data or is that just speculation? Either way I was asking a hypothetical question.
- amalter 7y agoIt’s more the other direction. What evidence do we have that this will be sorted by August? There has been no evidence that Cov-2 is anywhere as heat sensitive as influenza. This isn’t “the flu”. It doesn’t have to conform to flu patterns. Right now the only countries getting this under control are ones that have started social distancing early and left many measures in place.
- lordnacho 7y agoSome will, but many won't. There's a fair few frictions in that. Say you couldn't get a refund for whatever reason. Or your boss won't give you the time. Or whatever occasion you went for is passed. It's not that I'm saying it's all lost, but you have to count on some share being lost.