15 ms·

There were just 2 cases detected at the gym down the street from me. I'm in a medium town of about 40k in upstate NY. Not podunk, but hardly bustling. I'm cons

by kortex 7y ago

There were just 2 cases detected at the gym down the street from me. I'm in a medium town of about 40k in upstate NY. Not podunk, but hardly bustling. I'm considering the USA fully seeded at this point.

penagwin 7y ago
IMO the only reason we aren't reporting large numbers of new cases is because of the lack of widespread testing currently being done compared to other countries at this moment (other countries are performing magnitudes higher tests a day). Even if you think you have it, there's still not enough test kits available yet - even if you're swabbed it can be days for a result(Saying this from west michigan).
- chasd00 7y ago
  yes, the case count is about to sky rocket because wide spread testing is coming online but hopefully the fatality count doesn't. I think the authorities need to do a better job communicating that a steep rise in cases detected doesn't mean a steep rise in severe or lethal cases.
  - Frost1x 7y ago
    I think a steep rise in infection counts due to increased testing/detection would be a great thing. More data is always better in these situations and more confirmed infections with confirmed recoveries would probably ease everyone's minds a bit more. To be clear I'm not saying more infections are a good thing, simply that if there are a lot more cases that already exist, knowing they exist and having more accurate data that shows us COVID19 is less harmful than currently perceived/projected would be good for everyone.
  - astronautjones 7y ago
    you could start with getting the president and his sycophants to stop claiming its a partisan hoax and that it's going to go away in a few days
    - gwright 7y ago
      The president didn't say that the virus is a partisan hoax. His actions clearly indicate he doesn't believe it is a hoax. The president did claim that some criticisms about his handling of the situation were a "new hoax" in the same way he has labeled previous unfounded criticism and accusations as hoaxes.
      - gwicks56 7y ago
        ""When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."
        gwright 7y ago
        so? That is not the same thing as saying it is a hoax. Plenty of reasonable criticisms to make but that doesn’t mean the President thinks the virus itself is a hoax. I am arguing for clear communication and facts and people are basically saying screw that let’s just spread rumors because, reasons. How is that helpful?
      - hcknwscommenter 7y ago
        "His actions clearly indicate he doesn't believe it is a hoax." Huh? He called Fox News and said on air ""So if, you know, we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people [with COVID-19] that get better, just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work, some of them go to work, but they get better,"" His whole schtick until just about a few hours ago was that the risks were all hugely overblown. I am also curious to know exactly which "previous unfounded criticisms" you are referring to.
        blaser-waffle 7y ago
        I don't know if I'd call that blatantly partisan. Stupid, perhaps, or a hamfisted attempt to prevent panics and economic crashes, but it's not especially political.
- dorchadas 7y ago
  And because people with mild symptoms aren't likely going to the doctor. They can't afford to take off work and go, and if it's simply mild right now, why risk their livelihood? I kinda hope this whole thing is a wake-up call for why our system is so unsustainable.
  - hnick 7y ago
    People on reddit (take that as you will) have been reporting that even if the symptoms are significant and match the profile, tests aren't being run if no travel has taken place recently. These people get turned away. It matches this article on restrictive testing. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-testing-numbers/607714/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavir...
    - blaser-waffle 7y ago
      COVID-19 doesn't mean there aren't regular flu / colds going around, too. Long distance travel and exposure to those who have been (e.g. hugging your wife got off a plane from Spain 2 days ago) is still a top predictor for exposure.
      - Seenso 7y ago
        > COVID-19 doesn't mean there aren't regular flu / colds going around, too. Which is exactly why everyone with those symptoms needs to be tested. One of the most important things we need to do right now is detect the people who got the virus through community transmission. > Long distance travel and exposure to those who have been (e.g. hugging your wife got off a plane from Spain 2 days ago) is still a top predictor for exposure. I'd say that testing those people should be lower priority, since an assumption they're infected is more likely to be accurate, so they can take preventative measures without needing a test.
        penagwin 7y ago
        > Which is exactly why everyone with those symptoms needs to be tested. This. I'm in my twenties so it's very possible for me to get COVID and only experience cold like symptoms (or less!). I'm sorry to everyone, but I won't self-quarantine myself for 14 days just because I have a stuffy nose (it's likely a cold right?). I'm fortunate enough to have the ability to take time off/work remote - but what if it's a cold this week and COVID in two weeks? I can't take a month off. I'm from West Michigan - ATM there's very little testing available, and I'd only be tested if I had recently traveled. But we're past the point where recently traveling is such a big indicator - we're seeing plenty of community transmission for me to believe it's very likely everywhere already, and any lack of cases is because of a lack of testing.
- FireBeyond 7y ago
  > Even if you think you have it, there's still not enough test kits available yet The messaging on this has been pathetic. The other day UW in Seattle announced they had a capacity to test 1,000/day. Not adequate for the nation, but for the PNW, sure.
  - protein_lense 7y ago
    I'm in Seattle. While there may be official "kits" for this, the protocol can be run in any competent lab set up for this type of assay. DNA primers specific for covid-19 would need to be ordered, but this is routine. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/rt-pcr-detection-instructions.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/rt-pcr-detecti... https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/rt-pcr-panel-primer-probes.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/rt-pcr-panel-p... ETA: I'm having trouble locating positive control template sequences. I am happy for S. Korea running 100,000+ tests, and embarrassed that the US has maybe run 1000s at this point. I also think that the virus is widely dispersed in the US and the best we can hope for is to keep the case load at a level manageable by our health care system. I'm pretty worried about that though.
  - hcknwscommenter 7y ago
    That is not an adequate number for the PNW. Full stop. You have no idea what you are talking about.
- LeoTinnitus 7y ago
  Also it is entirely dependent upon if they get tested too. In the US, most people are wasting their time.
divbzero 7y ago
Does this mean we need a more robust domestic response to contain coronavirus, instead of or in addition to restricting travel to the US? Akin to how securing a network is more than setting up a firewall at the perimeter.
- irq11 7y ago
  It cannot be contained. That’s what the pandemic declaration means (even though the WHO should have done this weeks ago). At this point, the only rational thing to do is to try to slow the spread. The good news is that this is a very mild virus, and the vast majority of infected people will have minor symptoms. The fatality rate in Korea is currently 0.6%, and becuase of the comprehensive nature of their testing, this should be considered the upper bound on CFR.
  - tunesmith 7y ago
    South Korea has been at 0.8% the last two days, and will continue to climb as their open cases resolve one way or another. Plus, didn't they just have a spike in Seoul?
    - irq11 7y ago
      There was a spike in Seoul. Based on their reaction so far, I have a great deal of confidence in their ability to isolate it and react effectively. Regarding the rise in CFR: it will naturally go up as cases decline, because fatalities stem from a time when the case rate was more rapidly increasing. Korea’s case rate had been declining for several days: https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1229708001243795458 https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/12297080012... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/health/coronavirus-deaths-rates.amp.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/heal...
  - wbl 7y ago
    Until the hospitals are overloaded.
tunesmith 7y ago
We're not really hearing any reports of unexplained deaths that might be covid deaths, and the US is advanced enough to not miss deaths like that, so one thing that might put an upper bound on how behind we are. Then again, there's a delay while symptoms progress.
- smileysteve 7y ago
  Awkward, the CDC announced re attributed deaths today
- ebrenes 7y ago
  This already happened in Seattle [1]. Undetected COVID deaths are not "unexplained" because they look like flu deaths, so they're simply catalogued as being from the flu. "In fact, officials would later discover through testing, the virus had already contributed to the deaths of two people, and it would go on to kill 20 more in the Seattle region over the following days." [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-de...
yellowapple 7y ago
I'm betting we've been seeded since even before Wuhan's quarantine started. My folks and I all got pretty thoroughly sick during a cruise in early January, and they're becoming increasingly convinced it was COVID (especially since my stepmom tested negative for any sort of flu, and this was well before there were reports of COVID outside of China so of course the doctors wouldn't think to test for it even if they happened to have a test kit); it's increasingly difficult for me to be skeptical of that conclusion. Thankfully all of us seemed to get over it without much complication, and it doesn't seem like very many of the people we've since interacted with have come down with it. We might very well have just been lucky, though.
- boulos 7y ago
  I dunno, where was your cruise and were there lots of mainland Chinese people on it? Sadly the symptoms for CoVid-19 are pretty common across a variety of diseases, so “flu-like but not flu” doesn’t necessarily point to this. At that time during the outbreak, it seems likely you would have needed to have people from Wuhan on-board.
  - yellowapple 7y ago
    > where was your cruise Los Angeles → Catalina Islands → Ensenada → Los Angeles > and were there lots of mainland Chinese people on it? I mean, I didn't exactly go around asking people "are you from China?", but based on the number of people who sounded like they were speaking Mandarin I'd tentatively answer "yes". > Sadly the symptoms for CoVid-19 are pretty common across a variety of diseases, so “flu-like but not flu” doesn’t necessarily point to this. Indeed, which is why I'm still at least somewhat skeptical. Still, it's hard to rule it out, especially given the relatively-severe symptoms (not the absolute worst I've felt, but it was pretty bad).
    - hcknwscommenter 7y ago
      Lots of people live in LA who haven't been to China in decades speak Chinese as a first language. The relevant question is whether there were many people on that cruise directly visiting directly from Wuhan/Hubei. LA-catalina-ensenada-LA? Doubt it. Not exactly the type of cruise someone flies thousands of miles for.

by kortex 7y ago

penagwin 7y ago

IMO the only reason we aren't reporting large numbers of new cases is because of the lack of widespread testing currently being done compared to other countries at this moment (other countries are performing magnitudes higher tests a day). Even if you think you have it, there's still not enough test kits available yet - even if you're swabbed it can be days for a result(Saying this from west michigan).

chasd00 7y ago
yes, the case count is about to sky rocket because wide spread testing is coming online but hopefully the fatality count doesn't. I think the authorities need to do a better job communicating that a steep rise in cases detected doesn't mean a steep rise in severe or lethal cases.
- Frost1x 7y ago
  I think a steep rise in infection counts due to increased testing/detection would be a great thing. More data is always better in these situations and more confirmed infections with confirmed recoveries would probably ease everyone's minds a bit more. To be clear I'm not saying more infections are a good thing, simply that if there are a lot more cases that already exist, knowing they exist and having more accurate data that shows us COVID19 is less harmful than currently perceived/projected would be good for everyone.
- astronautjones 7y ago
  you could start with getting the president and his sycophants to stop claiming its a partisan hoax and that it's going to go away in a few days
  - gwright 7y ago
    The president didn't say that the virus is a partisan hoax. His actions clearly indicate he doesn't believe it is a hoax. The president did claim that some criticisms about his handling of the situation were a "new hoax" in the same way he has labeled previous unfounded criticism and accusations as hoaxes.
    - gwicks56 7y ago
      ""When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."
      - gwright 7y ago
        so? That is not the same thing as saying it is a hoax. Plenty of reasonable criticisms to make but that doesn’t mean the President thinks the virus itself is a hoax. I am arguing for clear communication and facts and people are basically saying screw that let’s just spread rumors because, reasons. How is that helpful?
    - hcknwscommenter 7y ago
      "His actions clearly indicate he doesn't believe it is a hoax." Huh? He called Fox News and said on air ""So if, you know, we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people [with COVID-19] that get better, just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work, some of them go to work, but they get better,"" His whole schtick until just about a few hours ago was that the risks were all hugely overblown. I am also curious to know exactly which "previous unfounded criticisms" you are referring to.
      - blaser-waffle 7y ago
        I don't know if I'd call that blatantly partisan. Stupid, perhaps, or a hamfisted attempt to prevent panics and economic crashes, but it's not especially political.
dorchadas 7y ago
And because people with mild symptoms aren't likely going to the doctor. They can't afford to take off work and go, and if it's simply mild right now, why risk their livelihood? I kinda hope this whole thing is a wake-up call for why our system is so unsustainable.
- hnick 7y ago
  People on reddit (take that as you will) have been reporting that even if the symptoms are significant and match the profile, tests aren't being run if no travel has taken place recently. These people get turned away. It matches this article on restrictive testing. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-testing-numbers/607714/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavir...
  - blaser-waffle 7y ago
    COVID-19 doesn't mean there aren't regular flu / colds going around, too. Long distance travel and exposure to those who have been (e.g. hugging your wife got off a plane from Spain 2 days ago) is still a top predictor for exposure.
    - Seenso 7y ago
      > COVID-19 doesn't mean there aren't regular flu / colds going around, too. Which is exactly why everyone with those symptoms needs to be tested. One of the most important things we need to do right now is detect the people who got the virus through community transmission. > Long distance travel and exposure to those who have been (e.g. hugging your wife got off a plane from Spain 2 days ago) is still a top predictor for exposure. I'd say that testing those people should be lower priority, since an assumption they're infected is more likely to be accurate, so they can take preventative measures without needing a test.
      - penagwin 7y ago
        > Which is exactly why everyone with those symptoms needs to be tested. This. I'm in my twenties so it's very possible for me to get COVID and only experience cold like symptoms (or less!). I'm sorry to everyone, but I won't self-quarantine myself for 14 days just because I have a stuffy nose (it's likely a cold right?). I'm fortunate enough to have the ability to take time off/work remote - but what if it's a cold this week and COVID in two weeks? I can't take a month off. I'm from West Michigan - ATM there's very little testing available, and I'd only be tested if I had recently traveled. But we're past the point where recently traveling is such a big indicator - we're seeing plenty of community transmission for me to believe it's very likely everywhere already, and any lack of cases is because of a lack of testing.
FireBeyond 7y ago
> Even if you think you have it, there's still not enough test kits available yet The messaging on this has been pathetic. The other day UW in Seattle announced they had a capacity to test 1,000/day. Not adequate for the nation, but for the PNW, sure.
- protein_lense 7y ago
  I'm in Seattle. While there may be official "kits" for this, the protocol can be run in any competent lab set up for this type of assay. DNA primers specific for covid-19 would need to be ordered, but this is routine. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/rt-pcr-detection-instructions.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/rt-pcr-detecti... https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/rt-pcr-panel-primer-probes.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/rt-pcr-panel-p... ETA: I'm having trouble locating positive control template sequences. I am happy for S. Korea running 100,000+ tests, and embarrassed that the US has maybe run 1000s at this point. I also think that the virus is widely dispersed in the US and the best we can hope for is to keep the case load at a level manageable by our health care system. I'm pretty worried about that though.
- hcknwscommenter 7y ago
  That is not an adequate number for the PNW. Full stop. You have no idea what you are talking about.
LeoTinnitus 7y ago
Also it is entirely dependent upon if they get tested too. In the US, most people are wasting their time.

divbzero 7y ago

Does this mean we need a more robust domestic response to contain coronavirus, instead of or in addition to restricting travel to the US? Akin to how securing a network is more than setting up a firewall at the perimeter.

irq11 7y ago
It cannot be contained. That’s what the pandemic declaration means (even though the WHO should have done this weeks ago). At this point, the only rational thing to do is to try to slow the spread. The good news is that this is a very mild virus, and the vast majority of infected people will have minor symptoms. The fatality rate in Korea is currently 0.6%, and becuase of the comprehensive nature of their testing, this should be considered the upper bound on CFR.
- tunesmith 7y ago
  South Korea has been at 0.8% the last two days, and will continue to climb as their open cases resolve one way or another. Plus, didn't they just have a spike in Seoul?
  - irq11 7y ago
    There was a spike in Seoul. Based on their reaction so far, I have a great deal of confidence in their ability to isolate it and react effectively. Regarding the rise in CFR: it will naturally go up as cases decline, because fatalities stem from a time when the case rate was more rapidly increasing. Korea’s case rate had been declining for several days: https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1229708001243795458 https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/12297080012... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/health/coronavirus-deaths-rates.amp.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/heal...
- wbl 7y ago
  Until the hospitals are overloaded.

tunesmith 7y ago

We're not really hearing any reports of unexplained deaths that might be covid deaths, and the US is advanced enough to not miss deaths like that, so one thing that might put an upper bound on how behind we are. Then again, there's a delay while symptoms progress.

smileysteve 7y ago
Awkward, the CDC announced re attributed deaths today
ebrenes 7y ago
This already happened in Seattle [1]. Undetected COVID deaths are not "unexplained" because they look like flu deaths, so they're simply catalogued as being from the flu. "In fact, officials would later discover through testing, the virus had already contributed to the deaths of two people, and it would go on to kill 20 more in the Seattle region over the following days." [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-de...

yellowapple 7y ago

I'm betting we've been seeded since even before Wuhan's quarantine started. My folks and I all got pretty thoroughly sick during a cruise in early January, and they're becoming increasingly convinced it was COVID (especially since my stepmom tested negative for any sort of flu, and this was well before there were reports of COVID outside of China so of course the doctors wouldn't think to test for it even if they happened to have a test kit); it's increasingly difficult for me to be skeptical of that conclusion. Thankfully all of us seemed to get over it without much complication, and it doesn't seem like very many of the people we've since interacted with have come down with it. We might very well have just been lucky, though.

boulos 7y ago
I dunno, where was your cruise and were there lots of mainland Chinese people on it? Sadly the symptoms for CoVid-19 are pretty common across a variety of diseases, so “flu-like but not flu” doesn’t necessarily point to this. At that time during the outbreak, it seems likely you would have needed to have people from Wuhan on-board.
- yellowapple 7y ago
  > where was your cruise Los Angeles → Catalina Islands → Ensenada → Los Angeles > and were there lots of mainland Chinese people on it? I mean, I didn't exactly go around asking people "are you from China?", but based on the number of people who sounded like they were speaking Mandarin I'd tentatively answer "yes". > Sadly the symptoms for CoVid-19 are pretty common across a variety of diseases, so “flu-like but not flu” doesn’t necessarily point to this. Indeed, which is why I'm still at least somewhat skeptical. Still, it's hard to rule it out, especially given the relatively-severe symptoms (not the absolute worst I've felt, but it was pretty bad).
  - hcknwscommenter 7y ago
    Lots of people live in LA who haven't been to China in decades speak Chinese as a first language. The relevant question is whether there were many people on that cruise directly visiting directly from Wuhan/Hubei. LA-catalina-ensenada-LA? Doubt it. Not exactly the type of cruise someone flies thousands of miles for.