10 ms·

I feel like there are some particular cultural attributes in the United States that make this useless at this point. The United States has a very individualist

by moosey 7y ago

I feel like there are some particular cultural attributes in the United States that make this useless at this point. The United States has a very individualistic attitude. Sure, we can pause travel from Europe, but the current administration is very anti-europe. Can we pause travel in the US? I strongly doubt that we can effectively given the strong anti-expertise attitudes as well. My guess is that the United States will become a more major hot spot for the virus than other locales. It will spread rapidly and the supply hoarding and sad state of our medical system will mean that in a few months, other nations will be rejecting flights from the US. It's a prediction, a guess, but there are aspects of our culture that just makes it seem very likely. I'm not going to make any more predictions than the idea that we'll have more cases per capita than any other developed nation. It's be interesting when I'm proven incorrect over time.

maxerickson 7y ago
There are lots of individualists that will flout advice, but there's also lots of people that will isolate themselves in quite a paranoid fashion. I think there's more of the latter.
- paxys 7y ago
  More or less doesn't matter. It's a classic case of "one person can ruin it for everyone", which is why in many countries there is strict enforcement rather than just recommendations.
  - maxerickson 7y ago
    It isn't a classic case of one person can ruin it for everyone. When I choose not to go to the bar, the guy at the bar that ignored the advice about not going out in public still doesn't infect me. So less dramatically: individuals can (and will!) reduce their exposure to infected people that make poor choices. Of course the more people that do the right thing the better, but it isn't a situation where the outcome is controlled just by the worst actors.
    - paxys 7y ago
      Unless you hermetically seal yourself from the outside world, you are still at risk. Yes that risk can be reduced, but as more and more people are affected, your own chances go up exponentially, no matter what measures you take.
      - maxerickson 7y ago
        Yes, it's the value of the exponent that I am talking about. Smaller is, uh, exponentially, better than larger. (I'm being sarcastic, but changing the exponent is (literally) what all the public health messaging about flattening the curve is about)
        rabidrat 7y ago
        (to be completely pedantic, flattening the curve is about changing the base. The exponent is time.)
        maxerickson 7y ago
        No, the equation is (currently infected)^(rate*time). Community mitigation changes the rate.
        rabidrat 7y ago
        Okay, I think you're right here. But then why when I calculate compound interest, it's (1+rate)^time ?
        maxerickson 7y ago
        The infection is continuously compounding. This video is hand wavy, but it shows the relationship: https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/core-finance/interest-tutorial/cont-comp-int-and-e/v/continuously-compounding-interest-formula-e https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/core-fi...
- MulliMulli 7y ago
  Just eat an apple a day...
dcolkitt 7y ago
On the other hand, Americans have much larger and more comfortable homes than Europeans. Americans have big garages to stockpile supplies, which means less trips to the store. Very few people use public transportation regularly. Most people have private back yards. Many more meals are take-out or drive-thru. More Americans use e-commerce for shopping than Europeans. In Europe by contrast, much more of life revolves around public spaces, like the park, cafes, the city square, and public transport. Americans tend to spend little time in restaurants, whereas Europeans relax and enjoy the meal, thus increasing their exposure time. Think of the areas in the US that seen the worst outbreaks. Seattle, the Bay Area, New York, Boston. These are the metros, where the average resident is least likely to live a typical middle-American lifestyle. San Francisco in many ways is closer to Copenhagen than it is to Jacksonville. Overall, social distancing is probably easier for Americans because our way of life already involves a good deal of social distance to begin with.
- Sebguer 7y ago
  I mean there was literally a guy on the post from yesterday talking about how we're all paranoid and he's going to enjoy "exploring Boston and eating out while the lines are short".
  - sithlord 7y ago
    Thats probably the attitude that spreads it, yes. But that doesn't change a massivie amount of Americans don't live in these hotspots.
  - chrisco255 7y ago
    Yeah some people are going to take advantage of cheap flights and small crowds. The thinner crowds is the point though. it still achieves the objective of lowering the R value.
    - ShorsHammer 7y ago
      I bought an annual unlimited longhaul flight pass on AirAsia for ~$150 USD, still have to pay taxes and airport charges. One return flight home and it pays for itself. Will see how that turns out, but is very much bargain hunting time for the brave. Also traffic is great now. One good thing to come out of this is that governments might see the huge infrastructure benefits from just a small increase in remote workers. https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/2020/2/29/eng-aaunlimitedpass https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/2020/2/29/eng-aaunlimitedp...
burlesona 7y ago
Only time will tell, but fairly aggressive measures are already being taken in California and Washington where the cases are only in the hundreds, and many other states are following close behind when they have few to no cases. One thing even many Americans don’t properly appreciate is the degree to which most things are actually run at the state and local level. So far the federal dysfunction has not stopped the states and cities from moving. If that stays the case, the US may be okay. One other factor in the US favor, it’s extremely low population density compared to the rest of the world. The US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are all similarly low density and in this specific case likely to benefit from that.
- joe_the_user 7y ago
  fairly aggressive measures are already being taken in California and Washington Such as?? I'm living California, outside a major city. I don't see anything.
  - ncallaway 7y ago
    Washington has just, for example, banned all events with over 250 people in them for the three most affected counties. Cities and counties in CA had been doing the same with different thresholds. Which meant an NBA game was going to be played without fans (since then, the NBA season has been suspended, which is a pretty significant measure in and of itself). Many schools have been closing in the Seattle area, and just today the Seattle school district, and many outlying school districts closed for at least two weeks. That's a lot of school closures. Many companies are having employees work from home wherever possible. The amount of traffic in Seattle during rush-hour is an astronomical change. There's very light traffic during rush hour in places that used to be wall-to-wall vehicles. As someone living in the Seattle area, it feels like life has substantially changed.
  - libria 7y ago
    All Seattle public schools closed. Northshore is already, Bellevue shortly, LW had better. https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2020-03-11/seattle-public-schools-close-due-to-coronavirus-first-major-system-to-announce-prolonged-closure https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2020-03-... Washington Gov. Jay Inslee said he’s banning gatherings of more than 250 people in several counties. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/washington-state-bans-large-events-to-contain-the-coronavirus-outbreak.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/washington-state-bans-large-... Many local businesses have soft-closed their offices at behest of city including Amazon and Microsoft.
jorblumesea 7y ago
Europe is a huge place and it's hard to pin it down to a single culture. The collectivism is mainly seen in northern Europe and Scandinavian countries. If you've ever been to Napoli or Sicily you wouldn't feel the same way. Feels more like Morocco sometimes. Many parts are really not as collectivist as people seem to think. Not as collectivist as Asia at least, not even close. Individualistic tendencies are strong over there, although not as strong as in the US.
- dx034 7y ago
  I would've thought that the closer personal contact in Southern Europe (hugging/kissing for greetings) would spread it faster. But if you look at infection rates, most more Northern countries now look pretty similar to how it spread in Italy 1-2 weeks ago. So not sure if culture actually plays a role. I guess it's all down to the economy, business travel spread it a lot. that's why areas with strong economies seem to be affected more than others (at least in Spain, Italy and Germany). Banning travel could work quite effectively for that.
  - Dahoon 7y ago
    >that's why areas with strong economies seem to be affected more than others (at least in Spain, Italy and Germany) Are you saying Spain and Italy has strong economies?
    - arethuza 7y ago
      By GDP Italy is #8 and Spain is #13
    - dx034 7y ago
      I said the strong parts of each country were most affected. Not saying economically strong countries more than weaker countries but stronger regions more than weaker regions. For Italy it's the North, for Germany South & West, for Spain the regions around Barcelona & Madrid. In each case, they were hit hardest. I don't believe that this is coincidence. There are other factors, like wealth leading to more travel and general, as well as population density. But interconnection by economic activity looks to me like a major factor.
mxcrossb 7y ago
Just yesterday I listened to an interview with a medical expert, and the host asked him if he should cancel his domestic holiday plans. The host assured him that was premature. And yet here we are the next day. The situation is evolving rapidly.
- hans1729 7y ago
  >The host assured him that was premature. And yet here we are the next day. The situation is evolving rapidly. Meh. Your personal risk to become infected via $generic_domestic_holidays is pretty low, but the risk to increase the overall threat-vector by allowing open flights from domestic zones is very high. The personal assessment just differs from the supervising political assessment, while the observed/assessed situation is exactly the same. Also: be careful with "experts", whenever that label is used, you should be very wary. A "medical expert" doesn't inherently know anything about politics at scale, he just (simplification alert) knows which medication to apply when which symptoms arise.
  - SiempreViernes 7y ago
    Yeah, you need a influenza epidemic expert, all the rests are just repeating second-hand information.
    - stoicShell 7y ago
      Joe Rogan has had such an ad hoc expert just this week, highly recommended. A sobering cold and factual shower.
      - tyleo 7y ago
        Agreed, it’s amazing the range of guests Joe Rogan has on his show. Admittedly some are more witch doctors than actual doctors but his recent conversation with Michael Osterholm was the real deal.
nitinreddy88 7y ago
Even India is pausing all travel from Europe for next one month. It's not about US/India, Europe got lot of exposed cases and currently it's the best way to prevent further spreading.

by moosey 7y ago

maxerickson 7y ago

There are lots of individualists that will flout advice, but there's also lots of people that will isolate themselves in quite a paranoid fashion. I think there's more of the latter.

paxys 7y ago
More or less doesn't matter. It's a classic case of "one person can ruin it for everyone", which is why in many countries there is strict enforcement rather than just recommendations.
- maxerickson 7y ago
  It isn't a classic case of one person can ruin it for everyone. When I choose not to go to the bar, the guy at the bar that ignored the advice about not going out in public still doesn't infect me. So less dramatically: individuals can (and will!) reduce their exposure to infected people that make poor choices. Of course the more people that do the right thing the better, but it isn't a situation where the outcome is controlled just by the worst actors.
  - paxys 7y ago
    Unless you hermetically seal yourself from the outside world, you are still at risk. Yes that risk can be reduced, but as more and more people are affected, your own chances go up exponentially, no matter what measures you take.
    - maxerickson 7y ago
      Yes, it's the value of the exponent that I am talking about. Smaller is, uh, exponentially, better than larger. (I'm being sarcastic, but changing the exponent is (literally) what all the public health messaging about flattening the curve is about)
      - rabidrat 7y ago
        (to be completely pedantic, flattening the curve is about changing the base. The exponent is time.)
        maxerickson 7y ago
        No, the equation is (currently infected)^(rate*time). Community mitigation changes the rate.
        rabidrat 7y ago
        Okay, I think you're right here. But then why when I calculate compound interest, it's (1+rate)^time ?
        maxerickson 7y ago
        The infection is continuously compounding. This video is hand wavy, but it shows the relationship: https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/core-finance/interest-tutorial/cont-comp-int-and-e/v/continuously-compounding-interest-formula-e https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/core-fi...
MulliMulli 7y ago
Just eat an apple a day...

dcolkitt 7y ago

On the other hand, Americans have much larger and more comfortable homes than Europeans. Americans have big garages to stockpile supplies, which means less trips to the store. Very few people use public transportation regularly. Most people have private back yards. Many more meals are take-out or drive-thru. More Americans use e-commerce for shopping than Europeans. In Europe by contrast, much more of life revolves around public spaces, like the park, cafes, the city square, and public transport. Americans tend to spend little time in restaurants, whereas Europeans relax and enjoy the meal, thus increasing their exposure time. Think of the areas in the US that seen the worst outbreaks. Seattle, the Bay Area, New York, Boston. These are the metros, where the average resident is least likely to live a typical middle-American lifestyle. San Francisco in many ways is closer to Copenhagen than it is to Jacksonville. Overall, social distancing is probably easier for Americans because our way of life already involves a good deal of social distance to begin with.

Sebguer 7y ago
I mean there was literally a guy on the post from yesterday talking about how we're all paranoid and he's going to enjoy "exploring Boston and eating out while the lines are short".
- sithlord 7y ago
  Thats probably the attitude that spreads it, yes. But that doesn't change a massivie amount of Americans don't live in these hotspots.
- chrisco255 7y ago
  Yeah some people are going to take advantage of cheap flights and small crowds. The thinner crowds is the point though. it still achieves the objective of lowering the R value.
  - ShorsHammer 7y ago
    I bought an annual unlimited longhaul flight pass on AirAsia for ~$150 USD, still have to pay taxes and airport charges. One return flight home and it pays for itself. Will see how that turns out, but is very much bargain hunting time for the brave. Also traffic is great now. One good thing to come out of this is that governments might see the huge infrastructure benefits from just a small increase in remote workers. https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/2020/2/29/eng-aaunlimitedpass https://newsroom.airasia.com/news/2020/2/29/eng-aaunlimitedp...

burlesona 7y ago

Only time will tell, but fairly aggressive measures are already being taken in California and Washington where the cases are only in the hundreds, and many other states are following close behind when they have few to no cases. One thing even many Americans don’t properly appreciate is the degree to which most things are actually run at the state and local level. So far the federal dysfunction has not stopped the states and cities from moving. If that stays the case, the US may be okay. One other factor in the US favor, it’s extremely low population density compared to the rest of the world. The US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are all similarly low density and in this specific case likely to benefit from that.

joe_the_user 7y ago
fairly aggressive measures are already being taken in California and Washington Such as?? I'm living California, outside a major city. I don't see anything.
- ncallaway 7y ago
  Washington has just, for example, banned all events with over 250 people in them for the three most affected counties. Cities and counties in CA had been doing the same with different thresholds. Which meant an NBA game was going to be played without fans (since then, the NBA season has been suspended, which is a pretty significant measure in and of itself). Many schools have been closing in the Seattle area, and just today the Seattle school district, and many outlying school districts closed for at least two weeks. That's a lot of school closures. Many companies are having employees work from home wherever possible. The amount of traffic in Seattle during rush-hour is an astronomical change. There's very light traffic during rush hour in places that used to be wall-to-wall vehicles. As someone living in the Seattle area, it feels like life has substantially changed.
- libria 7y ago
  All Seattle public schools closed. Northshore is already, Bellevue shortly, LW had better. https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2020-03-11/seattle-public-schools-close-due-to-coronavirus-first-major-system-to-announce-prolonged-closure https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2020-03-... Washington Gov. Jay Inslee said he’s banning gatherings of more than 250 people in several counties. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/washington-state-bans-large-events-to-contain-the-coronavirus-outbreak.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/washington-state-bans-large-... Many local businesses have soft-closed their offices at behest of city including Amazon and Microsoft.

jorblumesea 7y ago

Europe is a huge place and it's hard to pin it down to a single culture. The collectivism is mainly seen in northern Europe and Scandinavian countries. If you've ever been to Napoli or Sicily you wouldn't feel the same way. Feels more like Morocco sometimes. Many parts are really not as collectivist as people seem to think. Not as collectivist as Asia at least, not even close. Individualistic tendencies are strong over there, although not as strong as in the US.

dx034 7y ago
I would've thought that the closer personal contact in Southern Europe (hugging/kissing for greetings) would spread it faster. But if you look at infection rates, most more Northern countries now look pretty similar to how it spread in Italy 1-2 weeks ago. So not sure if culture actually plays a role. I guess it's all down to the economy, business travel spread it a lot. that's why areas with strong economies seem to be affected more than others (at least in Spain, Italy and Germany). Banning travel could work quite effectively for that.
- Dahoon 7y ago
  >that's why areas with strong economies seem to be affected more than others (at least in Spain, Italy and Germany) Are you saying Spain and Italy has strong economies?
  - arethuza 7y ago
    By GDP Italy is #8 and Spain is #13
  - dx034 7y ago
    I said the strong parts of each country were most affected. Not saying economically strong countries more than weaker countries but stronger regions more than weaker regions. For Italy it's the North, for Germany South & West, for Spain the regions around Barcelona & Madrid. In each case, they were hit hardest. I don't believe that this is coincidence. There are other factors, like wealth leading to more travel and general, as well as population density. But interconnection by economic activity looks to me like a major factor.

mxcrossb 7y ago

Just yesterday I listened to an interview with a medical expert, and the host asked him if he should cancel his domestic holiday plans. The host assured him that was premature. And yet here we are the next day. The situation is evolving rapidly.

hans1729 7y ago
>The host assured him that was premature. And yet here we are the next day. The situation is evolving rapidly. Meh. Your personal risk to become infected via $generic_domestic_holidays is pretty low, but the risk to increase the overall threat-vector by allowing open flights from domestic zones is very high. The personal assessment just differs from the supervising political assessment, while the observed/assessed situation is exactly the same. Also: be careful with "experts", whenever that label is used, you should be very wary. A "medical expert" doesn't inherently know anything about politics at scale, he just (simplification alert) knows which medication to apply when which symptoms arise.
- SiempreViernes 7y ago
  Yeah, you need a influenza epidemic expert, all the rests are just repeating second-hand information.
  - stoicShell 7y ago
    Joe Rogan has had such an ad hoc expert just this week, highly recommended. A sobering cold and factual shower.
    - tyleo 7y ago
      Agreed, it’s amazing the range of guests Joe Rogan has on his show. Admittedly some are more witch doctors than actual doctors but his recent conversation with Michael Osterholm was the real deal.

nitinreddy88 7y ago

Even India is pausing all travel from Europe for next one month. It's not about US/India, Europe got lot of exposed cases and currently it's the best way to prevent further spreading.