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Italy to close all stores apart from food shops and pharmacies
- baggy_trough 7y agoThe faster your community does the same, the more people will live.
- comboy 7y agoI don't understand it. Your refrigerator breaks, something goes wrong with your sink, how forcing shops to close is helping? I could understand maybe shops that are selling clothes, but so many things depend on each other. You need working appliances to be able to cook for yourself and keep proper hygiene.
- chupa-chups 7y agoIf you can decrease the spread factor (R0) by 0.1, you're going to help a lot of people. t^(r0-0.1) is a lot less over time than t^(r0). That's averaged, of course. If your refrigerator breaks, your individual value will increase. But as a whole, it will still decrease.
- phreeza 7y agoIn the SIR model, a factor 1-1/R0 of the total population end up being infected over time. That means with a reduction of 0.1, you will prevent about 0.1/R0^2 from ever being infected, so something like 2%. Of course there are other effects like less load on the hospitals.
- chupa-chups 7y agoYes, but if you look closely at italy, that's what matters: spread the amount of people requiring intensive care until it is below the threshold your region is able to provide.
- lmilcin 7y agoThat's right. Even if it is impossible to prevent from spreading, which I believe we will no longer be able to do, it is still much better to be sick at some other time than when everybody else is sick, too. It also gives more time to develop protocol to treat it.
- mshook 7y agoExactly, as https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ puts it, it's all about reducing the load on the healthcare infrastructure: "Far and away, the most important thing to do is flatten the curve of the epidemic so that our health systems can cope and to give time for the scientists to research vaccines and treatments."
- daboross 7y agoThis seems to me to be mainly aimed at restaurants and department stores. For working applications, isn't that usually dealt with via in-home repair anyways? I don't know many people who would go to a store to buy a new appliance if it breaks, nor many people who would know how to buy parts and fix it themselves.
- gpm 7y agoContractors often buy some of their supplies in stores... And depending on how badly something broke you do replace it. How many people do you know with 50 year old fridges?
- TheOtherHobbes 7y agoOne person being inconvenienced out of thousands is better than thousands being infected out of millions, and tens or hundreds of dead or permanently damaged.
- 3JPLW 7y agoNot sure why this is getting downvoted. We're all on approximately the same exponential trend as Italy, just a few days behind. The US, for example, is looking to be 11 days behind. Do nothing and we'll end up where they are now. https://twitter.com/EcolEpig/status/1237430984678703104 https://twitter.com/EcolEpig/status/1237430984678703104
- 3JPLW 7y agoHere's an updated thread from the same author with more plots, more countries, and a few more thoughts. Well worth reading. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1237781162153717760.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1237781162153717760.html
- ithkuil 7y agoIn absolute numbers yes. More 30d-ish of you account for difference in population size. Not sure which parameter is more useful since the spread doesn't occur with equal density
- lmilcin 7y agoExactly. It is already clear that it will not go away by itself. The more drastic measures, the sooner, the faster it can be managed. I live in Poland. It seems most cases are connected with somebody who recently came from abroad. Closing borders may seem like a drastic measure but much less drastic that waiting couple of days and doing it anyway + much more. My point of view is it is a bit foolish to slowly, gradually escalate measures. It would be probably wise cause of action with a completely new disease which we don't know yet, but it is not a new disease now. We saw what happened to China. We know it is difficult to control and if people are allowed to move it is neigh impossible to prevent from spreading.
- vanniv 7y agoThese actions will kill 10x or more as many people as covid would even if no action was taken.
- chefkoch 7y agoAnd you can substantiate your claim with what data?
- bpodgursky 7y agoIt's funny how the only global crisis deemed worth shutting down society over is the one that impacts 65+ year olds. Global warming, pension underfunding, unsustainable healthcare, and education costs don't count, because the crisis is 15 years away (eg after they die). Crippling the global economy (and shutting down schools!!!) to stop COVID-19 hurts the future of 15-35 year olds the worst. But any reform is STILL going to be spent increasing healthcare funding -- to benefit the retirees impacted by COVID. $0 fixing the the damage to Gen Z, whose education and job prospects were delayed by (potentially) years, depending on whether we get sent into a recession.
- piratesjustarr 7y agoReally?
- dugditches 7y agoSo shutting down the schools to stop the spread, so children don't spread it to their older family members will hurt youth the worst? A lot of issues with shutting down schools is in regards to childcare and food(meal programs) in the United States. Not their 'futures'.
- the-pigeon 7y agoAnd to expand on this. This is a wildfire. Shutting things down slows the fire's movement which buys time to fully track it and isolate only the affected individuals. Specific to Italy, their hospitals are already past the breaking point in many areas. So people that would be easy to treat with medical resources are dying because the resources are exhausted. By stopping the immediate spread by isolating everyone their hospitals can get to a stable point in a few weeks.
- stOneskull 7y agoi think that is the main point. it would be good to just let everyone get the virus and then get back to normal, but there aren't enough medical resources for everyone at once.
- Bombthecat 7y agoWoah, thats crazy.. Its sad that a lot of states will look like that because they wont do anything...
- madengr 7y agoWon't do what?
- Bombthecat 7y agoExactly. Nothing.
- rv-de 7y agoIsn't doing that doing something?
- chupa-chups 7y agoI hope everyone does her/his best to tell their peers this is real.
- lurquer 7y agoI hope this isn't all an elaborate scheme designed to chase tourists out of Venice...
- foxx-boxx 7y agoCrazy government
- foxx-boxx 7y agoItaly should leave the EU now, before it’s too late.
- dang 7y agoRelated Italy thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22545430 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22545430
- dang 7y agoWe changed the URL from https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/coronavirus-italy-has-ordered-all-shops-to-close-except-pharmacies-and-groceries-20200311 https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/coronavirus-italy-has-order... to one that seems to have more information.
- Gravityloss 7y agoActually: food deliveries will still be permitted all cafes/restaurants will be closed unless can guarantee at least 1 metre distance between customers public services like post, transport remain
- f34r34r43r34r34 7y agoNope, cafes/restaurant will be close, period.
- Gravityloss 7y agoDo you have a source? I pasted from the original article.
- ithkuil 7y agohttps://www.repubblica.it/politica/2020/03/11/news/coronavirus_conte_italia_governo_misure-250988471/ https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2020/03/11/news/coronavir...