3 ms·

yes, you shouldn't meet anyone. Stores should be all closed except for pharmacies and grocery stores. Restaurants should be closed. Bars should be closed. Offic

yes, you shouldn't meet anyone. Stores should be all closed except for pharmacies and grocery stores. Restaurants should be closed. Bars should be closed. Offices should be closed. For about 4 weeks. This is the only way we'll avoid hundreds of casualties. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
Then we’re going to have hundreds of casualties, man. I dunno, I’m very much on the side of acting quickly and decisively, but “nobody meet anyone or do anything until April” isn’t a real option.
uhoh-itsmaciek 7y ago
Not that I disagree, but how many stores, restaurants, and bars can afford to close for four weeks? And are they paying their employees during this time?
- RandallBrown 7y ago
  Not very many at all. Several bars in Seattle have already announced they're shutting their doors and that's just because they've seen low business over the past few weeks. Right now it's going to be businesses that were already struggling, but in a month it's going to be a LOT more places.
- drstewart 7y ago
  Additionally, how many people will the economic fallout of shutting down everything for 4 weeks kill?
Tepix 7y ago
I'm not sure about hundreds. Could be way more. In Germany we currently have 28,000 beds in ICU (I expect we will try to increase this number ASAP). If (as expected) we have say 10% of the populace infected and 10% of them require intensive care we need 800,000 beds. What happens to people who don't get proper care when they desperately need it? A lot of them will die. If the measures result in less simultaneous infections it will save lifes for sure. The more of a delay we can achieve the better.
anigbrowl 7y ago
I don't think that's going to happen on the scale you describe, or that you've taken the cost to human life of the economic fallout into account. But however we slice it, this is going to be bad. One professor from the University of Nebraska estimates it might result in 480,000 deaths in the US. That's a guess, but one made with conservative inputs, not from a harebrained or cranky analyst, and not out of line with the the guesses of others in this field. It's not the end of the world, but it will be quite socially and economically disruptive. https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions-of-hospitalizations-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-pr...

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago

Then we’re going to have hundreds of casualties, man. I dunno, I’m very much on the side of acting quickly and decisively, but “nobody meet anyone or do anything until April” isn’t a real option.

uhoh-itsmaciek 7y ago

Not that I disagree, but how many stores, restaurants, and bars can afford to close for four weeks? And are they paying their employees during this time?

RandallBrown 7y ago
Not very many at all. Several bars in Seattle have already announced they're shutting their doors and that's just because they've seen low business over the past few weeks. Right now it's going to be businesses that were already struggling, but in a month it's going to be a LOT more places.
drstewart 7y ago
Additionally, how many people will the economic fallout of shutting down everything for 4 weeks kill?

Tepix 7y ago

I'm not sure about hundreds. Could be way more. In Germany we currently have 28,000 beds in ICU (I expect we will try to increase this number ASAP). If (as expected) we have say 10% of the populace infected and 10% of them require intensive care we need 800,000 beds. What happens to people who don't get proper care when they desperately need it? A lot of them will die. If the measures result in less simultaneous infections it will save lifes for sure. The more of a delay we can achieve the better.

anigbrowl 7y ago

I don't think that's going to happen on the scale you describe, or that you've taken the cost to human life of the economic fallout into account. But however we slice it, this is going to be bad. One professor from the University of Nebraska estimates it might result in 480,000 deaths in the US. That's a guess, but one made with conservative inputs, not from a harebrained or cranky analyst, and not out of line with the the guesses of others in this field. It's not the end of the world, but it will be quite socially and economically disruptive. https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions-of-hospitalizations-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-pr...