4 ms·

Exponential growth.

aty268 7y ago
You assume exponential growth will just continue, which I am claiming is false with China as an example. If simple proper measures are taken, (which they will be once more people are infected) like shutting the majority of businesses down, restricted travel, people washing their hands and not going out of their way to concerts and big meetings, you don't have the exponential growth.
- LandR 7y ago
  Most countries outside of China can't and won't take the measures China did.
  - aty268 7y ago
    I agree, so let's assume the US doesn't intervene at all. Exponential growth is occurring because the median person is infecting more than one other person, which right now is coming from people not knowing they have the virus and not worrying about getting the virus. Even without government intervention, as cases increase people will start taking this more seriously and the exponential growth will stop. Even if you don't have symptoms but have the virus, you aren't going to that concert or that vacation because you don't want to catch the virus from someone else.
    - LandR 7y ago
      I think you are underestimating how irrational people are. Only yesterday I was speaking to someone who is hoping to get some discounted flights / hotels for a cheap holiday while this is all going on, as everyone else will be scared to travel... Hell, I heard someone say that if we stay home and change how we live then the "virus has won.". I don't even know what I'm supposed to say to that.
      - aty268 7y ago
        They aren't scared right now because they are downplaying the idea that they could contract the virus, but once they start seeing more cases of people in their area / other travellers, they will change their mind. Very few people want to roll a dice with 5 / 6 sides giving you Coronavirus, they just aren't seeing the odds yet.
    - fma 7y ago
      It seems like you're arguing we shouldn't take it seriously because by the time it's serious, people will stop interacting each other.
      - aty268 7y ago
        You may be correct. More so i'm just trying to understand what to believe and what is most likely to happen.
- downerending 7y ago
  Not sure most would call these measures "simple", but they do indeed seem like something we could do. It wouldn't be hard, though, for some of these simple measures to kill more people than they save, via collateral damage. Another point to consider is that this virus is apparently "novel", meaning that humans in general have not had time to build up significant immunity. Even if measures are taken, they will likely just push the date of infection for each individual out into the future some--most people will eventually be exposed no matter what.
- dougmwne 7y ago
  Are you posting in good faith? On the assumption that you are, China locked down at least 760 million people. Italy has locked down 60 million people. The economic consequences are going to be staggering. The virus would be almost impossible to eliminate without a vaccine, so once quarantine measures are lifted it would continue to spread quickly again. It's pretty obvious if you separated people and kept them in their homes the virus would stop spreading. So what? The world cannot just stop forever. Life will go on, and so will this virus. It is with us now. Unfortunately this is going to change your life and people you know are going to get very sick and die. Please tell the older people in your life to be very careful and DO NOT downplay the risks to them.
  - DenisM 7y ago
    From the official guidelines: Assume good faith. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - aty268 7y ago
    I'm just asking a question nobody else is asking because I want to understand the likely impacts of this virus rather than the hype.
  - grecy 7y ago
    > Italy has locked down 60 million people Please don't exaggerate. In another thread here on HN someone from Italy posted exactly what it's like. They go for walks, they go to bars or restaurants and maintain 1 meter distance between people, and if they need to care for a relative or someone else they're permitted to travel to other towns/cities. Sure, people's lives are a bit different, but say they're on "lockdown" is simply not true.
    - dougmwne 7y ago
      This is not an exaggeration. Just because people are flouting the lockdown does not mean it isn't serious. This is not "a bit different." The PM just raised the severity of the closures today: https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2020/03/11/news/coronavirus_conte_italia_governo_misure-250988471/ https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2020/03/11/news/coronavir...
- michaelmcmillan 7y ago
  You're putting words in my mouth, congrats. Every exponential in the "real world" eventually turns into a logistic curve. Can you tell me when the inflection point will occur? No? Okay, good luck to you and your family.

Exponential growth.

You assume exponential growth will just continue, which I am claiming is false with China as an example. If simple proper measures are taken, (which they will be once more people are infected) like shutting the majority of businesses down, restricted travel, people washing their hands and not going out of their way to concerts and big meetings, you don't have the exponential growth.

LandR 7y ago
Most countries outside of China can't and won't take the measures China did.
- aty268 7y ago
  I agree, so let's assume the US doesn't intervene at all. Exponential growth is occurring because the median person is infecting more than one other person, which right now is coming from people not knowing they have the virus and not worrying about getting the virus. Even without government intervention, as cases increase people will start taking this more seriously and the exponential growth will stop. Even if you don't have symptoms but have the virus, you aren't going to that concert or that vacation because you don't want to catch the virus from someone else.
  - LandR 7y ago
    I think you are underestimating how irrational people are. Only yesterday I was speaking to someone who is hoping to get some discounted flights / hotels for a cheap holiday while this is all going on, as everyone else will be scared to travel... Hell, I heard someone say that if we stay home and change how we live then the "virus has won.". I don't even know what I'm supposed to say to that.
    - aty268 7y ago
      They aren't scared right now because they are downplaying the idea that they could contract the virus, but once they start seeing more cases of people in their area / other travellers, they will change their mind. Very few people want to roll a dice with 5 / 6 sides giving you Coronavirus, they just aren't seeing the odds yet.
  - fma 7y ago
    It seems like you're arguing we shouldn't take it seriously because by the time it's serious, people will stop interacting each other.
    - aty268 7y ago
      You may be correct. More so i'm just trying to understand what to believe and what is most likely to happen.
downerending 7y ago
Not sure most would call these measures "simple", but they do indeed seem like something we could do. It wouldn't be hard, though, for some of these simple measures to kill more people than they save, via collateral damage. Another point to consider is that this virus is apparently "novel", meaning that humans in general have not had time to build up significant immunity. Even if measures are taken, they will likely just push the date of infection for each individual out into the future some--most people will eventually be exposed no matter what.
dougmwne 7y ago
Are you posting in good faith? On the assumption that you are, China locked down at least 760 million people. Italy has locked down 60 million people. The economic consequences are going to be staggering. The virus would be almost impossible to eliminate without a vaccine, so once quarantine measures are lifted it would continue to spread quickly again. It's pretty obvious if you separated people and kept them in their homes the virus would stop spreading. So what? The world cannot just stop forever. Life will go on, and so will this virus. It is with us now. Unfortunately this is going to change your life and people you know are going to get very sick and die. Please tell the older people in your life to be very careful and DO NOT downplay the risks to them.
- DenisM 7y ago
  From the official guidelines: Assume good faith. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- aty268 7y ago
  I'm just asking a question nobody else is asking because I want to understand the likely impacts of this virus rather than the hype.
- grecy 7y ago
  > Italy has locked down 60 million people Please don't exaggerate. In another thread here on HN someone from Italy posted exactly what it's like. They go for walks, they go to bars or restaurants and maintain 1 meter distance between people, and if they need to care for a relative or someone else they're permitted to travel to other towns/cities. Sure, people's lives are a bit different, but say they're on "lockdown" is simply not true.
  - dougmwne 7y ago
    This is not an exaggeration. Just because people are flouting the lockdown does not mean it isn't serious. This is not "a bit different." The PM just raised the severity of the closures today: https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2020/03/11/news/coronavirus_conte_italia_governo_misure-250988471/ https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2020/03/11/news/coronavir...
michaelmcmillan 7y ago
You're putting words in my mouth, congrats. Every exponential in the "real world" eventually turns into a logistic curve. Can you tell me when the inflection point will occur? No? Okay, good luck to you and your family.