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Please keep in mind I might be wrong, I just want to understand things outside of the hype. So I don't buy all the hype, can somebody tell me why i'm wrong? I

by aty268 7y ago

Please keep in mind I might be wrong, I just want to understand things outside of the hype. So I don't buy all the hype, can somebody tell me why i'm wrong? I keep hearing claims from brilliant people that 50-80% of the population could easily be infected. Exponential growth is obviously the answer, and is occurring because the median person is infecting more than one other person, which right now is coming from people not knowing they have the virus and not worrying about getting the virus. This will change as more people become infected. Assuming even the most BASIC of measures are taken, (people washing their hands, not going to crowded areas often, not travelling etc.) this will probably stop exponential growth. In China, 5 people have been infected for every 100,000 citizens, and the virus isn't exponentially growing anymore. But fine, maybe they took good measures. In Italy, it's closer to 20 people per 100,000. Fine, four times as high, but still a TINY portion of the population. If you assume that their graph will ever look anything like China's, there is no way in hell more than 1% of the population will be infected. It probably won't come within two orders of magnitude. In what god forsaken situation could even 1% of the US get the Coronavirus? Even without government intervention, as cases increase people will start taking this more seriously and the exponential growth will stop. Even if you don't have symptoms but have the virus, you aren't going to that concert or that vacation because you don't want to catch the virus from someone else. As long as you at most infect 1 other person, the exponential growth stops. This will happen way before 1% of the population is infected. EDIT: I'm incorrect in the idea that people shouldn't worry about it, you should, but I believe that worrying about it will be enough to stop the exponential growth.

Leary 7y ago
All depends on the mitigations people take. If people think it's serious, they'll take actions to prevent that serious outcome. If people think it's not serious, then it may become serious.
- Fragoel2 7y ago
  Most countries (and leaders) and not taking this seriously until they are it HARD by it. They should learn from the nations that were first affected and not just minimize it with "They handled it badly, we're gonna be fine".
  - hanche 7y ago
    Norway now ranks near the top (around 4th) among countries in the number of infected people per total population. This happened rather suddenly over the past few days, and I tell you, the government has upgraded its response radically! For example, all events gathering more than 500 people are cancelled, and that limit may well be lowered in the coming days. Most cases so far have been traced back to people coming back from a vacation trip to Northern Italy and Austria (ski resorts also popular among Italians), but now cases are popping up where health authorities are unable to trace the source of infection, and this, rather than raw numbers, is what has prompted the heightened alert level.
aza05001 7y ago
It's wrong to believe China's numbers are accurate at all. and in Italy, its mostly been in one area, not the entirety of Italy.
- aty268 7y ago
  That's a good point, I suppose my argument hinges on the fact we can prevent exponential growth and if that isn't the case because the data is wrong...
  - WilliamEdward 7y ago
    Sooner or later and the spread will kick back up again when people return to work.
michaelmcmillan 7y ago
Exponential growth.
- aty268 7y ago
  You assume exponential growth will just continue, which I am claiming is false with China as an example. If simple proper measures are taken, (which they will be once more people are infected) like shutting the majority of businesses down, restricted travel, people washing their hands and not going out of their way to concerts and big meetings, you don't have the exponential growth.
  - LandR 7y ago
    Most countries outside of China can't and won't take the measures China did.
    - aty268 7y ago
      I agree, so let's assume the US doesn't intervene at all. Exponential growth is occurring because the median person is infecting more than one other person, which right now is coming from people not knowing they have the virus and not worrying about getting the virus. Even without government intervention, as cases increase people will start taking this more seriously and the exponential growth will stop. Even if you don't have symptoms but have the virus, you aren't going to that concert or that vacation because you don't want to catch the virus from someone else.
      - LandR 7y ago
        I think you are underestimating how irrational people are. Only yesterday I was speaking to someone who is hoping to get some discounted flights / hotels for a cheap holiday while this is all going on, as everyone else will be scared to travel... Hell, I heard someone say that if we stay home and change how we live then the "virus has won.". I don't even know what I'm supposed to say to that.
greedo 7y ago
Because the virus can propagate asymptomatically. And even in the best performing countries, only symptomatic people are being tested.
- aty268 7y ago
  Of course, that is the explanation for the exponential growth in the early stages. US citizens don't care right now. Once the virus grows, people will start being more careful, whether they have symptoms or not, because they don't want to get the virus. This along with some government intervention and businesses closing shop will destroy the exponential growth, as we see with China and will soon see with Italy.
- learc83 7y ago
  Even if it is possible, there's no evidence that shows that asymptomatic transmission is common enough to be a significant factor.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
tribaal 7y ago
From my non-specialist understanding: Those examples (China, Italy) have taken drastic measures to keep people from socializing, in order to slow the spread of the disease in order to not overwhelm the health system. That's the killer - once you reach maximal hospital capacity, people die because of not only the severe virus infections, but because they can't get the required treatment for their other unrelated ailments as well (e.g. a stroke, or a car accident etc...). Italian doctors already have to make really hard decisions with regards to who they will admit into ICU since there are not enough beds for everyone. So if only 1% of the country gets severe symptoms requiring hospitalization in the US, that's 3 million people needing intensive care unit beds, on top of the normal load. Measures in Italy and China won't prevent 80% of the country to be infected (mostly, people will not need hospitalization - only a small fraction will), it only tries to reduce the number of people needing intensive care at the same time, in order to not overload the health system and save as many of them as possible (since they can't make enough ICU beds and equipment appear out of thin air) EDIT: and of course, buy time until a vaccine or other treatment method is available...
- aquadrop 7y ago
  It's just harsh restrictive measures are also not free. Sending economy into hard recession, disrupting supply chains etc will cause people to lose jobs, get under poverty line or not get above it etc. I think it would be a good idea to get more research on how to approach it, finding right balance. South Korea seems have curbed exponential spread and without much panic/hard disruption of everyday life, at least according to this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZqgMIrjKOQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZqgMIrjKOQ
triceratops 7y ago
> So I don't buy all the hype, > maybe the took good measures. How do you "take good measures" without "hype"? Will people mass-self-quarantine if you tell them "it's just the flu, nothing to worry about"?
JamesBarney 7y ago
I don't know if the most significant pandemic of the last century, that could be slowed if we implement unprecedented draconian measures in time can be over-hyped.
peripitea 7y ago
Among others, the numbers are way under-reported. For example, in Iran there's good reason to believe that 1-5% of the population already have it: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663 https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coro... Even if you look at Italy, though, and if you assumed that their numbers were accurate (highly unlikely), 20/100k is only 5-6 doublings away from 1% of the population, or as little as 3-4 weeks if not properly contained.
bitcharmer 7y ago
> There is no way this is happening Sorry, but I stopped reading after that.
- aty268 7y ago
  I'm just asking a question with my current point of view in mind. Believe what you want to believe, and for whatever reason you want to believe it.
  - bitcharmer 7y ago
    That was not a question, it was a statement. One of those typically made out of ignorance, so there's really no point in carrying on with such strongly opinionated train of thought.
carapace 7y ago
This went by here from 3Blue1Brown: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg "Exponential growth and epidemics" Hopefully you're correct and it won't grow out of control and infect most of the world, but for now the idea is to keep the burden on the medical systems low to prevent knock-on effects of over-running our caring capacity.
- aty268 7y ago
  Thank you for sharing! I'll check this out after work.

by aty268 7y ago

Leary 7y ago

All depends on the mitigations people take. If people think it's serious, they'll take actions to prevent that serious outcome. If people think it's not serious, then it may become serious.

Fragoel2 7y ago
Most countries (and leaders) and not taking this seriously until they are it HARD by it. They should learn from the nations that were first affected and not just minimize it with "They handled it badly, we're gonna be fine".
- hanche 7y ago
  Norway now ranks near the top (around 4th) among countries in the number of infected people per total population. This happened rather suddenly over the past few days, and I tell you, the government has upgraded its response radically! For example, all events gathering more than 500 people are cancelled, and that limit may well be lowered in the coming days. Most cases so far have been traced back to people coming back from a vacation trip to Northern Italy and Austria (ski resorts also popular among Italians), but now cases are popping up where health authorities are unable to trace the source of infection, and this, rather than raw numbers, is what has prompted the heightened alert level.

aza05001 7y ago

It's wrong to believe China's numbers are accurate at all. and in Italy, its mostly been in one area, not the entirety of Italy.

aty268 7y ago
That's a good point, I suppose my argument hinges on the fact we can prevent exponential growth and if that isn't the case because the data is wrong...
- WilliamEdward 7y ago
  Sooner or later and the spread will kick back up again when people return to work.

michaelmcmillan 7y ago

Exponential growth.

aty268 7y ago
You assume exponential growth will just continue, which I am claiming is false with China as an example. If simple proper measures are taken, (which they will be once more people are infected) like shutting the majority of businesses down, restricted travel, people washing their hands and not going out of their way to concerts and big meetings, you don't have the exponential growth.
- LandR 7y ago
  Most countries outside of China can't and won't take the measures China did.
  - aty268 7y ago
    I agree, so let's assume the US doesn't intervene at all. Exponential growth is occurring because the median person is infecting more than one other person, which right now is coming from people not knowing they have the virus and not worrying about getting the virus. Even without government intervention, as cases increase people will start taking this more seriously and the exponential growth will stop. Even if you don't have symptoms but have the virus, you aren't going to that concert or that vacation because you don't want to catch the virus from someone else.
    - LandR 7y ago
      I think you are underestimating how irrational people are. Only yesterday I was speaking to someone who is hoping to get some discounted flights / hotels for a cheap holiday while this is all going on, as everyone else will be scared to travel... Hell, I heard someone say that if we stay home and change how we live then the "virus has won.". I don't even know what I'm supposed to say to that.

greedo 7y ago

Because the virus can propagate asymptomatically. And even in the best performing countries, only symptomatic people are being tested.

aty268 7y ago
Of course, that is the explanation for the exponential growth in the early stages. US citizens don't care right now. Once the virus grows, people will start being more careful, whether they have symptoms or not, because they don't want to get the virus. This along with some government intervention and businesses closing shop will destroy the exponential growth, as we see with China and will soon see with Italy.
learc83 7y ago
Even if it is possible, there's no evidence that shows that asymptomatic transmission is common enough to be a significant factor.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

tribaal 7y ago

From my non-specialist understanding: Those examples (China, Italy) have taken drastic measures to keep people from socializing, in order to slow the spread of the disease in order to not overwhelm the health system. That's the killer - once you reach maximal hospital capacity, people die because of not only the severe virus infections, but because they can't get the required treatment for their other unrelated ailments as well (e.g. a stroke, or a car accident etc...). Italian doctors already have to make really hard decisions with regards to who they will admit into ICU since there are not enough beds for everyone. So if only 1% of the country gets severe symptoms requiring hospitalization in the US, that's 3 million people needing intensive care unit beds, on top of the normal load. Measures in Italy and China won't prevent 80% of the country to be infected (mostly, people will not need hospitalization - only a small fraction will), it only tries to reduce the number of people needing intensive care at the same time, in order to not overload the health system and save as many of them as possible (since they can't make enough ICU beds and equipment appear out of thin air) EDIT: and of course, buy time until a vaccine or other treatment method is available...

aquadrop 7y ago
It's just harsh restrictive measures are also not free. Sending economy into hard recession, disrupting supply chains etc will cause people to lose jobs, get under poverty line or not get above it etc. I think it would be a good idea to get more research on how to approach it, finding right balance. South Korea seems have curbed exponential spread and without much panic/hard disruption of everyday life, at least according to this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZqgMIrjKOQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZqgMIrjKOQ

triceratops 7y ago

> So I don't buy all the hype, > maybe the took good measures. How do you "take good measures" without "hype"? Will people mass-self-quarantine if you tell them "it's just the flu, nothing to worry about"?

JamesBarney 7y ago

I don't know if the most significant pandemic of the last century, that could be slowed if we implement unprecedented draconian measures in time can be over-hyped.

peripitea 7y ago

Among others, the numbers are way under-reported. For example, in Iran there's good reason to believe that 1-5% of the population already have it: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663 https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coro... Even if you look at Italy, though, and if you assumed that their numbers were accurate (highly unlikely), 20/100k is only 5-6 doublings away from 1% of the population, or as little as 3-4 weeks if not properly contained.

bitcharmer 7y ago

> There is no way this is happening Sorry, but I stopped reading after that.

aty268 7y ago
I'm just asking a question with my current point of view in mind. Believe what you want to believe, and for whatever reason you want to believe it.
- bitcharmer 7y ago
  That was not a question, it was a statement. One of those typically made out of ignorance, so there's really no point in carrying on with such strongly opinionated train of thought.

carapace 7y ago

This went by here from 3Blue1Brown: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg "Exponential growth and epidemics" Hopefully you're correct and it won't grow out of control and infect most of the world, but for now the idea is to keep the burden on the medical systems low to prevent knock-on effects of over-running our caring capacity.

aty268 7y ago
Thank you for sharing! I'll check this out after work.