7 ms·

It doesn’t affect each age group uniformly. If you’re under 30 without any other health issues, you should be fine? Might not realize you have it? I wonder i

It doesn’t affect each age group uniformly. If you’re under 30 without any other health issues, you should be fine? Might not realize you have it? I wonder if it would be easier to create a low dosage vaccine for younger people, thus creating a bit of a firewall so it doesn’t spread as rapidly. I know nothing about medicine so this may be silly.

rogerkirkness 7y ago
Generally speaking, all vaccines are low dosage. Everyone having the vaccine would be better, starting with those most at risk. If we had a vaccine, we would give it to 80 year olds first, then go down the chain.
- Retric 7y ago
  You generally start with healthcare workers, then high risk populations, then the general public.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- paulmd 7y ago
  Dr Anthony Fauci has been estimating it'll take about 12-18 months to get a vaccine through trials. Human testing starts in a month or two. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/08/health/fauci-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/08/health/fauci-coronavirus.... We have a ways to go before a vaccine is available. iirc he reiterated this to congress this morning before hearings were terminated to allow Trump to hold a press conference. Witnesses were told to stop their testimony and leave immediately. > “This morning we were informed that President Trump and Vice President Pence have called our witnesses to an emergency meeting at the White House,” Maloney said. “We don't know the details, just that it is extremely urgent.” > At about 11:30 a.m., she ended questioning from lawmakers, saying she received notice from the White House that the witnesses needed to leave “now.” https://thehill.com/homenews/house/487014-trump-officials-cut-testimony-short-at-coronavirus-hearing https://thehill.com/homenews/house/487014-trump-officials-cu...
mhb 7y ago
It's not silly. Though I'd be interested in the comparison of under-30 without any health issues to over-50 without any health issues.
maxerickson 7y ago
The current goal is to create any vaccine that is safe and effective. If you have that, you give it to everybody you can. I guess deciding what safe enough is can be a problem (for many people the bar will be "getting the vaccine has better odds for a good outcome than getting the infection", but that is sort of a minimum).
supercanuck 7y ago
>without any other health issue I think people are underestimating what an over-capacity, health care system looks like and the increase in risk of other infections can have.
- bryanrasmussen 7y ago
  right, as I understand the information from Italy right now emergency services are basically shut down because system overburdened. So as a healthy 30 year old, don't go do any of those healthy sports you like because you might get an injury and that's it then. Also patient 1 in Italy was a healthy marathon runner who at least ended up in intensive care, not sure if dead yet or not.
  - giovan-ni 7y ago
    he is breathing on is own since yesterday, still hospitalized
    - bryanrasmussen 7y ago
      thanks for the info!
  - lultimouomo 7y ago
    In Lombardy, the only region where the situation is critical at the moment, emergency service have NOT shut down. Non urgent procedures are suspended, both to spare doctors and nurses and to avoid creating new emergencies in case those procedures go wrong. ERs are not overwhelmed, ICUs are. You basically get in real trouble if you need a respirator - they're pretty much out of those and they have to assess your chance of survival to decide if they can tube you. Interestingly ERs are seeing much less load because people have stopped going there for stupid reasons, because they are afraid of catching COVID-19. All medical stuff is still busting their ass if course, a lot of them have been lended to ICUs, rooms have been repurposed, etc. This is not to say that the situation isn't bad. It's really bad. And if you think that your country has such a good health care system that it will hold better, you should know that Lombardy hospitals are top notch. Whatever your age, stop traveling. If there's been a single case in your region, stop risky behaviors now: don't go shopping, have it delivered. Work from home. Don't use public transit. Teach your parents how to shop online and force them to stay home. Don't shake hands and wash them often.
williamDafoe 7y ago
Not completely true. It can apparently spread to a lower respiratory problem in ANYONE (where it is VERY deadly, 50% mortality rate) it just tends not to do it very often in persons 10-30 yrs old.
- hybrid_cluster 7y ago
  Source?
- gnulinux 7y ago
  I've never seen this 50% figure, looking at people in critical condition data, even that's not 50%, more like 20% mortality. Please provide a source, or delete your comment.
fock 7y ago
yeah, I agree that this is no problem if hospitals stop taking anyone over 40 with respiratory issues and leave them to die at home. Letality might approach 10-20% then (from all we know), but hey, we are young!
- andybak 7y ago
  I'm 49. I wish you'd said "Over 50".
JamesBarney 7y ago
Im 34 so I'll be fine, and I probably won't lose any friends. But I may lose a parent and I'll definitely have a friend who loses a parent. And that seems pretty awful especially considering how preventable this all was.
- jamesrcole 7y ago
  > so I’ll be fine I hope so, but - it will kill some number of younger people, even healthy ones. - it’s also worth considering that we don’t (AFAIK) have a clear picture about potential long-term complications (eg lung damage). We should not simply assume there won’t be these. I’m saying this to emphasize the seriousness of the situation.
- gambiting 7y ago
  >>Im 34 so I'll be fine I'm sorry, but that's a stupid assumption to make. I'm "only" 29 and last year I managed to catch a parvovirus B19 from someone - it's a virus that's relatively common in children, but has very mild symptoms - it's almost unheard of in adults, mostly because you either already have immunity, or there are no symptoms/the symptoms are no worse than a mild cold/flu. Well, except that in about 10% of adults it causes severe response with a high fever that last weeks, with arthretic swelling of joints - and in 10% of those the joint issues don't go away for years. Well, it's been nearly a year now and my knees and other joints are still fucked from the virus, I'm constantly on steroids just to control the inflammation. So no, this has changed my "I'm young so I'll be fine" outlook on this - the chances are not always in your favour.
  - krageon 7y ago
    You're being overly dramatic. While in general you might be correct, in this specific case you are not and your fear mongering isn't helping anyone.
  - brigandish 7y ago
    Sorry to hear that. I wish the insight you have could spread further (what a sorrowful irony) but it seems wisdom is rarely won without painful experience, the blasé attitude of some is not helping right now. I hope you get better soon.
teambayleaf 7y ago
The mortality rate of COVID-19 is estimated to be around ~0.1% for young people, which is five times higher than seasonal flu. > the risk of death among young adults would be smaller than that of older adults, e.g., at most 0.1%–0.2%. Whether to perceive this estimate as severe or moderate is a matter for discussion, but we consider 0.1%–0.2% among young adults to be unusually high. > https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/580 https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/580 So although it is not as deadly as SARS (which had 20% fatality rate), you definitely don't want to catch it.
- lixtra 7y ago
  > we consider 0.1-0.2% ... high To put that into perspective that’s the mortality rate of measles [1] and our grandparents were still going to measls parties. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/meas.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/meas.html
  - ajross 7y ago
    But measles wasn't a pandemic! Everyone keeps thinking this is about individual risk and trying to downplay things, and it's not like that. Our grandparents went to measles parties because they knew that they'd eventually be exposed and wanted to do it under controlled conditions where they knew treatment was available and had a plan for early detection of symptoms. The situation with COVID-19 is that people who get sick are going to do so in an environment where they and their government are surprised as "how fast it grew" and where all the hospital beds (and oxygen masks, and ventilators, and intubation kits, and doctors, and nurses, and...) are going to be filled by other sick people. And a lot of them are going to die, who didn't need to if we had just taken this seriously and not told people "it's just like measles".
    - lixtra 7y ago
      My reading of melling was to actually infect young and healthy people under controlled circumstances such that herd immunity builds. To that teambayleaf pointed out that it comes at high individual risk. But in the past this was done for measles at similar risk.
lllr_finger 7y ago
An otherwise healthy thirtysomething in Minnesota is in critical condition right now - it's not time to panic but you probably want to avoid getting this if you can.

rogerkirkness 7y ago

Generally speaking, all vaccines are low dosage. Everyone having the vaccine would be better, starting with those most at risk. If we had a vaccine, we would give it to 80 year olds first, then go down the chain.

Retric 7y ago
You generally start with healthcare workers, then high risk populations, then the general public.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
paulmd 7y ago
Dr Anthony Fauci has been estimating it'll take about 12-18 months to get a vaccine through trials. Human testing starts in a month or two. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/08/health/fauci-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/08/health/fauci-coronavirus.... We have a ways to go before a vaccine is available. iirc he reiterated this to congress this morning before hearings were terminated to allow Trump to hold a press conference. Witnesses were told to stop their testimony and leave immediately. > “This morning we were informed that President Trump and Vice President Pence have called our witnesses to an emergency meeting at the White House,” Maloney said. “We don't know the details, just that it is extremely urgent.” > At about 11:30 a.m., she ended questioning from lawmakers, saying she received notice from the White House that the witnesses needed to leave “now.” https://thehill.com/homenews/house/487014-trump-officials-cut-testimony-short-at-coronavirus-hearing https://thehill.com/homenews/house/487014-trump-officials-cu...

mhb 7y ago

It's not silly. Though I'd be interested in the comparison of under-30 without any health issues to over-50 without any health issues.

maxerickson 7y ago

The current goal is to create any vaccine that is safe and effective. If you have that, you give it to everybody you can. I guess deciding what safe enough is can be a problem (for many people the bar will be "getting the vaccine has better odds for a good outcome than getting the infection", but that is sort of a minimum).

supercanuck 7y ago

>without any other health issue I think people are underestimating what an over-capacity, health care system looks like and the increase in risk of other infections can have.

bryanrasmussen 7y ago
right, as I understand the information from Italy right now emergency services are basically shut down because system overburdened. So as a healthy 30 year old, don't go do any of those healthy sports you like because you might get an injury and that's it then. Also patient 1 in Italy was a healthy marathon runner who at least ended up in intensive care, not sure if dead yet or not.
- giovan-ni 7y ago
  he is breathing on is own since yesterday, still hospitalized
  - bryanrasmussen 7y ago
    thanks for the info!
- lultimouomo 7y ago
  In Lombardy, the only region where the situation is critical at the moment, emergency service have NOT shut down. Non urgent procedures are suspended, both to spare doctors and nurses and to avoid creating new emergencies in case those procedures go wrong. ERs are not overwhelmed, ICUs are. You basically get in real trouble if you need a respirator - they're pretty much out of those and they have to assess your chance of survival to decide if they can tube you. Interestingly ERs are seeing much less load because people have stopped going there for stupid reasons, because they are afraid of catching COVID-19. All medical stuff is still busting their ass if course, a lot of them have been lended to ICUs, rooms have been repurposed, etc. This is not to say that the situation isn't bad. It's really bad. And if you think that your country has such a good health care system that it will hold better, you should know that Lombardy hospitals are top notch. Whatever your age, stop traveling. If there's been a single case in your region, stop risky behaviors now: don't go shopping, have it delivered. Work from home. Don't use public transit. Teach your parents how to shop online and force them to stay home. Don't shake hands and wash them often.

williamDafoe 7y ago

Not completely true. It can apparently spread to a lower respiratory problem in ANYONE (where it is VERY deadly, 50% mortality rate) it just tends not to do it very often in persons 10-30 yrs old.

hybrid_cluster 7y ago
Source?
gnulinux 7y ago
I've never seen this 50% figure, looking at people in critical condition data, even that's not 50%, more like 20% mortality. Please provide a source, or delete your comment.

fock 7y ago

yeah, I agree that this is no problem if hospitals stop taking anyone over 40 with respiratory issues and leave them to die at home. Letality might approach 10-20% then (from all we know), but hey, we are young!

andybak 7y ago
I'm 49. I wish you'd said "Over 50".

JamesBarney 7y ago

Im 34 so I'll be fine, and I probably won't lose any friends. But I may lose a parent and I'll definitely have a friend who loses a parent. And that seems pretty awful especially considering how preventable this all was.

jamesrcole 7y ago
> so I’ll be fine I hope so, but - it will kill some number of younger people, even healthy ones. - it’s also worth considering that we don’t (AFAIK) have a clear picture about potential long-term complications (eg lung damage). We should not simply assume there won’t be these. I’m saying this to emphasize the seriousness of the situation.
gambiting 7y ago
>>Im 34 so I'll be fine I'm sorry, but that's a stupid assumption to make. I'm "only" 29 and last year I managed to catch a parvovirus B19 from someone - it's a virus that's relatively common in children, but has very mild symptoms - it's almost unheard of in adults, mostly because you either already have immunity, or there are no symptoms/the symptoms are no worse than a mild cold/flu. Well, except that in about 10% of adults it causes severe response with a high fever that last weeks, with arthretic swelling of joints - and in 10% of those the joint issues don't go away for years. Well, it's been nearly a year now and my knees and other joints are still fucked from the virus, I'm constantly on steroids just to control the inflammation. So no, this has changed my "I'm young so I'll be fine" outlook on this - the chances are not always in your favour.
- krageon 7y ago
  You're being overly dramatic. While in general you might be correct, in this specific case you are not and your fear mongering isn't helping anyone.
- brigandish 7y ago
  Sorry to hear that. I wish the insight you have could spread further (what a sorrowful irony) but it seems wisdom is rarely won without painful experience, the blasé attitude of some is not helping right now. I hope you get better soon.

teambayleaf 7y ago

The mortality rate of COVID-19 is estimated to be around ~0.1% for young people, which is five times higher than seasonal flu. > the risk of death among young adults would be smaller than that of older adults, e.g., at most 0.1%–0.2%. Whether to perceive this estimate as severe or moderate is a matter for discussion, but we consider 0.1%–0.2% among young adults to be unusually high. > https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/580 https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/580 So although it is not as deadly as SARS (which had 20% fatality rate), you definitely don't want to catch it.

lixtra 7y ago
> we consider 0.1-0.2% ... high To put that into perspective that’s the mortality rate of measles [1] and our grandparents were still going to measls parties. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/meas.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/meas.html
- ajross 7y ago
  But measles wasn't a pandemic! Everyone keeps thinking this is about individual risk and trying to downplay things, and it's not like that. Our grandparents went to measles parties because they knew that they'd eventually be exposed and wanted to do it under controlled conditions where they knew treatment was available and had a plan for early detection of symptoms. The situation with COVID-19 is that people who get sick are going to do so in an environment where they and their government are surprised as "how fast it grew" and where all the hospital beds (and oxygen masks, and ventilators, and intubation kits, and doctors, and nurses, and...) are going to be filled by other sick people. And a lot of them are going to die, who didn't need to if we had just taken this seriously and not told people "it's just like measles".
  - lixtra 7y ago
    My reading of melling was to actually infect young and healthy people under controlled circumstances such that herd immunity builds. To that teambayleaf pointed out that it comes at high individual risk. But in the past this was done for measles at similar risk.

lllr_finger 7y ago

An otherwise healthy thirtysomething in Minnesota is in critical condition right now - it's not time to panic but you probably want to avoid getting this if you can.