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The cruise ship isn’t a good test of anything because the healthcare the infected received wasn’t under strain and resource limited like it will be when widespr
by claudeganon 7y ago
The cruise ship isn’t a good test of anything because the healthcare the infected received wasn’t under strain and resource limited like it will be when widespread infection hits. I get why people cling to its example out of optimism, but look at the reality in Italy now for a better example of what things will look like further out, and what most people will face.
- joe_the_user 7y agoWell, Italy is not how things have to be further out. Health system can system prepare before hand (they aren't, it seems but still). Also, if the entire population of Northern Italy was infected and mortality rate was .5%, you would be seeing 13K deaths (which isn't impossible given the situation but far from 6-700 deaths so far). Which is to say, you're right that infection on a large scale is far more problematic than infection on a small scale but I don't think infection on a large necessarily contradicts the Diamond Princess results. A lot of people can die and it is social catastrophe even with percent of the entire population.
- fock 7y agoa) I think you meant 80000 deaths (northern italy has maybe 15 Mio inhabitants), b) so according to your calculation, there should be about 140000 cases closed by now?
- joe_the_user 7y agoWikipedia gives a figure of 27 million for Northern Italy[1]. But I want to be clear that nothing I said above is anything like a solid prediction, just a pure back-of-the-envelope rough comparison. There's nothing I'm going to predict here. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Italy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Italy