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Personally, I don’t think the major move happening right now is from gasoline cars to EVs. The major move is from cars to no cars. Tesla will not be a great tri

Personally, I don’t think the major move happening right now is from gasoline cars to EVs. The major move is from cars to no cars. Tesla will not be a great trillion dollar company in this scenario. It will be just another car manufacturer.

mdorazio 7y ago
Not really. The trend is to not owning cars if you’re a yuppie. People still need to get around in cars of some kind and Tesla is fairly well positioned for electric fleet sales of ride share or rental vehicles.
- CydeWeys 7y ago
  A lot of people, in fact, do not need to get around in cars. And rich people are more likely to own cars than poor people.
  - mdorazio 7y ago
    Right, that's what I said. Young urbanites often don't need cars. Families and people living outside dense urban areas usually do.
    - CydeWeys 7y ago
      It's a lot more than young urbanites that don't need cars. "Need" is an awfully strong word.
sgillen 7y ago
what would cars be replaced with then? Driverless cars that you rent on demand?
- Scarblac 7y ago
  Depends on where you are, but in the Netherlands it'd be bicycle within the city, and trains between cities. For me it's only the camping holidays in summer that I really need a car for, and renting one for that costs close to what owning an old car costs, so I still have one. But I'm constantly considering getting rid of it.
  - lucasmullens 7y ago
    Your example only works if you never leave a city.
    - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
      They have trains for that.
      - whatarethembits 7y ago
        Which is fine as long as you're willing to limit your travel from city to city and ignore the rest of the country in between.
        Scarblac 7y ago
        Bicycles and buses from train stations near the destination also work, or renting a car for a day. But it rarely comes up.
        seanmcdirmid 7y ago
        I went to pretty rural places in the Netherlands. You take a train to a town, and then get on a bus and wham, you are at some castle next to the ocean in a small tourist village.
scythe 7y ago
Moving away from cars sounds nice, but we have billions of km of roads and millions of houses already built to support a car-centric economy. It's not going to be a quick fix; you can't just "git co" new transportation and housing layouts. I wouldn't expect this to become a serious problem for Tesla for a couple decades, although the car market will start to cool off. But EVs are already more suitable for city driving thanks to regenerative braking, simpler transmissions and reduced air pollution.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
lucasmullens 7y ago
No cars? How do you leave a city? I could imagine a world filled with an automated uber-like service of self-driving cars, but what would replace cars for going to work in a small town?
- wilg 7y ago
  those self driving cars are still cars
- tonyedgecombe 7y ago
  No cars? How do you leave a city? Bikes, buses, trains.
pochamago 7y ago
This just doesn't work outside of urban areas. Both rural and suburban need cars and America is built around that concept
- rootusrootus 7y ago
  And panning over Europe with Google satellite view suggests that Europe is also populated with plenty of people living a suburban lifestyle. Cars are going to be the predominant mode of transportation indefinitely.
  - qayxc 7y ago
    That's a tremendously short-sighted view. Luxembourg recently made public transport free to use in an attempt to reduce traffic. Privately owned cars and private transport will become a relic of the past soon enough. Claims like "Cars are going to be the predominant mode of transportation indefinitely" sound an awful lot like "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." (Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943) or "Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years." (Alex Lewyt, president of Lewyt vacuum company, 1955). Just like Apple killed Nokia with a single product within two years, owning a car might become obsolete for the vast majority of people. It's also the most US-American-centric things to say: there are A LOT of countries where owning a car just isn't the norm - even in rural areas (1.35 BILLION Indians would agree, for example).
    - rootusrootus 7y ago
      I don't agree that it's shortsighted. Switching to mass transit for everything would be a regression. There is no way to make cars obsolete by replacing them with something functionally inferior.
sumedh 7y ago
> The major move is from cars to no cars. Let me guess, you dont have kids.
- christiansakai 7y ago
  Or live in Japan.

mdorazio 7y ago

Not really. The trend is to not owning cars if you’re a yuppie. People still need to get around in cars of some kind and Tesla is fairly well positioned for electric fleet sales of ride share or rental vehicles.

CydeWeys 7y ago
A lot of people, in fact, do not need to get around in cars. And rich people are more likely to own cars than poor people.
- mdorazio 7y ago
  Right, that's what I said. Young urbanites often don't need cars. Families and people living outside dense urban areas usually do.
  - CydeWeys 7y ago
    It's a lot more than young urbanites that don't need cars. "Need" is an awfully strong word.

sgillen 7y ago

what would cars be replaced with then? Driverless cars that you rent on demand?

Scarblac 7y ago
Depends on where you are, but in the Netherlands it'd be bicycle within the city, and trains between cities. For me it's only the camping holidays in summer that I really need a car for, and renting one for that costs close to what owning an old car costs, so I still have one. But I'm constantly considering getting rid of it.
- lucasmullens 7y ago
  Your example only works if you never leave a city.
  - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
    They have trains for that.
    - whatarethembits 7y ago
      Which is fine as long as you're willing to limit your travel from city to city and ignore the rest of the country in between.
      - Scarblac 7y ago
        Bicycles and buses from train stations near the destination also work, or renting a car for a day. But it rarely comes up.
      - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
        I went to pretty rural places in the Netherlands. You take a train to a town, and then get on a bus and wham, you are at some castle next to the ocean in a small tourist village.

scythe 7y ago

Moving away from cars sounds nice, but we have billions of km of roads and millions of houses already built to support a car-centric economy. It's not going to be a quick fix; you can't just "git co" new transportation and housing layouts. I wouldn't expect this to become a serious problem for Tesla for a couple decades, although the car market will start to cool off. But EVs are already more suitable for city driving thanks to regenerative braking, simpler transmissions and reduced air pollution.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

lucasmullens 7y ago

No cars? How do you leave a city? I could imagine a world filled with an automated uber-like service of self-driving cars, but what would replace cars for going to work in a small town?

wilg 7y ago
those self driving cars are still cars
tonyedgecombe 7y ago
No cars? How do you leave a city? Bikes, buses, trains.

pochamago 7y ago

This just doesn't work outside of urban areas. Both rural and suburban need cars and America is built around that concept

rootusrootus 7y ago
And panning over Europe with Google satellite view suggests that Europe is also populated with plenty of people living a suburban lifestyle. Cars are going to be the predominant mode of transportation indefinitely.
- qayxc 7y ago
  That's a tremendously short-sighted view. Luxembourg recently made public transport free to use in an attempt to reduce traffic. Privately owned cars and private transport will become a relic of the past soon enough. Claims like "Cars are going to be the predominant mode of transportation indefinitely" sound an awful lot like "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." (Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943) or "Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years." (Alex Lewyt, president of Lewyt vacuum company, 1955). Just like Apple killed Nokia with a single product within two years, owning a car might become obsolete for the vast majority of people. It's also the most US-American-centric things to say: there are A LOT of countries where owning a car just isn't the norm - even in rural areas (1.35 BILLION Indians would agree, for example).
  - rootusrootus 7y ago
    I don't agree that it's shortsighted. Switching to mass transit for everything would be a regression. There is no way to make cars obsolete by replacing them with something functionally inferior.

sumedh 7y ago

> The major move is from cars to no cars. Let me guess, you dont have kids.

christiansakai 7y ago
Or live in Japan.