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Tesla seems to be somewhat ahead in technology - their range is currently higher than in the Porsches/Audis/... and the software seems quite a bit more advanced

by w-m 7y ago

Tesla seems to be somewhat ahead in technology - their range is currently higher than in the Porsches/Audis/... and the software seems quite a bit more advanced. Tesla can use this to their advantage to sell more cars while the traditional automakers play catchup. But eventually they will get closer. And Volkswagen alone can introduce dozens of new models every year, based on their building blocks (MEB) and numerous brands. There will be cars this year from 15.000€ (VW e.Up and friends) to 150.000€ (Porsche Taycan), and a few others in between. VW alone plans to introduce 70 electric models in the coming years. How will Tesla, who did 4 models in ten years, compete with the sheer breadth of this market? Looking at what’s parked in the street, people choose lots of different types of cars, there’s no one-fits-all.

btian 7y ago
How about VW make one model that is competitive in terms of specs and price with Tesla, then we can talk about 70 or 700 models.
- imtringued 7y ago
  I'm not in the market for a Tesla and I will probably never be even though I am very interested in EVs.
magicalhippo 7y ago
From what I read, Audi and Jaguar could have made a lot more cars but can't get enough batteries. The new e-Tron has been a big hit in Norway so far, but they can't deliver enough. How is the situation for Volkswagen?
- icelancer 7y ago
  >> Audi and Jaguar could have made a lot more cars but can't get enough batteries. This is exactly what Elon said was going to happen years ago: Car manufacturers do not have the capacity to build batteries in sufficient quantity and quality and will not for many years.
  - imtringued 7y ago
    And this was obvious from the start. Tesla is in a unique situation where they basically build their own battery factories and get exclusive access to batteries. ICE manufacturers don't want to become battery manufacturers themselves but they also don't want to commit money to bootstrap a third party manufacturer (that may end up supplying their competition) if they can get away with selling ICE cars.
gibolt 7y ago
Tesla is the only company that has a Gigafactory producing batteries, and starting to build more. A few others finally get it, and are starting to invest billions just like Tesla's Panasonic arrangement. However, Tesla will soon be moving to their next iteration, producing far more batteries faster, cheaper, and in much less space.
- bildung 7y ago
  Actually Teslas vertical integration will be a disadvantage, I think. There are many independent battery manufacturers, and many new plants already in construction for a few years. China alone will produce in excess of 500GWh in 5 years, and Europe about 400GWh [0]. Batteries will be a commodity in the very near future, and the current supply crunches seem more to be about the metals needed, not the actual battery production. [0] https://insideevs.com/news/397955/10-chinese-battery-makers-50-gwh-2025/ https://insideevs.com/news/397955/10-chinese-battery-makers-...
  - gibolt 7y ago
    Tesla will be able to buy those up as well, just like they are doing with CATL in China. As a battery manufacturer, your goal is to make and sell as many batteries as possible. Tesla wants a much larger number than the other players.
Infinitesimus 7y ago
> How will Tesla, who did 4 models in ten years, compete with the sheer breadth of this market? Looking at what’s parked in the street, people choose lots of different types of cars, there’s no one-fits-all. Imagine this argument: "How will Apple, who only has one phone model, compete with the sheer breadth of this market? Looking at what’s in people's hands, people choose lots of different types of phones, there’s no one-fits-all." Yet here we are. Having so many car models is frankly exhausting. One of my silly little hobbies is trying to spec out cars online I dream of buying and everything becomes a chore after the first 10 seconds. Options that I don't want to think about being nickel-and-dimed for, features that should come standard but require an upgrade 'package' I dont want etc. Until they change how they think about cars, Tesla will keep beating them in the market in the price ranges Tesla competes in. And shit will hit the fan if Tesla ever figures out a way to make a much cheaper car for the mass market
- veggieburglar 7y ago
  Apple is currently selling six different iPhone models on its website.
  - tonyedgecombe 7y ago
    Yes, Apple made a lot of noise about the original lineup being simple because that was all they had. Commercial pressures will always lead to lots of choices because that's how the company extracts the most value it can from each customer.
  - Infinitesimus 7y ago
    Yep, but they didn't launch with all 6. In fact, they added each one after tremendous market pressure (larger phones, multiple sizes, a one-handed budget-friendly model). Tesla might very well have 10 cars in the future but for now, buying a Tesla is an easy decision: 1. Do I want a big sedan? Model S 2. Do I want a big suv? Model X 3. Do I want a smaller sedan? Model 3 4. Do I want a smaller suv/crossover/cuv? Model Y And just like apple, you get very similar experience across the entire lineup. Autopilot, automatic updates, etc. Not "Well, you can buy the lexus/bimmer/merc if you want a more luxurious experience but the base model is honestly just okay so you should probably get a specced out mid-tier car instead unless you have the $$ to spend on a top trim"
ericd 7y ago
Most manufacturers with interesting EV models out aren’t able to make them in any appreciable volume, because they don’t have the battery supply. So they just basically do lots of paper launches, while Tesla competes by actually making a ton of the cars that they announce, extending their lead in supply and battery tech, and expanding one by one into their competitors’ popular segments. Model Y is coming for the enormous crossover SUV market, supposedly first deliveries on the 15th. Which is hugely ironic given their old reputation for paper launches.
- tonyedgecombe 7y ago
  Given that is the case I don't know why they don't focus on plugin hybrids right now.
slaw 7y ago
I don't see Tesla being ahead in technology. Range at 75mph: 2020 Tesla Model S performance: 222 miles 2020 Porsche Taycan Turbo: 204 miles https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a30874032/porsche-taycan-range-test-tesla-model-s/ https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a30874032/porsche-tayca...
- s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
  The Porsche is $185,000. The Tesla is $79,990. Whatever that one test says, the Porsche is still rated 100 miles under the Tesla in range and is twice as much in cost. That's not exactly tied in tech. And that's just the Model S. Where is the competitor to the Model 3? The Taycan is closer to the Tesla Roadster, except for the 3x range the roadster has. Similar price though. The Model S has no competition. The Model 3 has no competition.
- koffiezet 7y ago
  Where Tesla is ahead is mostly battery production capacity and tech. This is what pretty much every manufacturer is struggling with. For Porsche this is not really that big of an issue since they're relatively low-volume (which is also how Tesla bootstrapped itself) - but for others this is a much bigger problem. Tesla can right now produce a lot more electric cars than Porsche could.
jillesvangurp 7y ago
The problem everyone has is producing enough batteries. Tesla secured supply early when people thought they were crazy for wanting so much capacity. As it turns out, they need much more and they are building their own cells and factories. VW recently announced they have enough batteries to build ~1 million cars until 2023. Tesla might be hitting that as the annual production before that time. Other manufacturers are struggling to secure access to batteries and are supply limited even if they have interesting models that people want to buy (like some Honda or Hyundai models). IMHO, most manufacturers need another five years to straighten out their supplies and then another five to scale down their legacy business. That's why you see the likes of Toyota talking about hybrids a lot because they simply can't scale up EV production right now even if they wanted to. Because they lack access to enough batteries. Some manufacturers have wisened up. It looks like VW and GM have pretty solid plans and are expanding production as fast as they can. But they are talking about keeping up with and not overtaking Tesla. At least VWs CEO is.
- w-m 7y ago
  Battery supply was mentioned several times in the replies, but I have a hard time following the argument. Building batteries seems to be a simple process, at least compared to building the rest of the car: https://youtu.be/PZBQzLfCKpw https://youtu.be/PZBQzLfCKpw As there is more demand, it seems straightforward to bring up Gigafactory-sized new assembly lines quickly.
  - koffiezet 7y ago
    You can build huge factories to build batteries, but getting the raw materials becomes tricky when one manufacturer secured the supplies for that way ahead of you, and you'll end up in second place.
    - w-m 7y ago
      I haven't heard about Tesla/Panasonic securing any raw materials years in advance. Would that even be economically sensible? There's lots of investment in R&D to try to reduce certain ingredients (cobalt), but for now it's probably a level playing field, everybody is in the same position in fighting to procure the raw materials.

by w-m 7y ago

btian 7y ago

How about VW make one model that is competitive in terms of specs and price with Tesla, then we can talk about 70 or 700 models.

imtringued 7y ago
I'm not in the market for a Tesla and I will probably never be even though I am very interested in EVs.

magicalhippo 7y ago

From what I read, Audi and Jaguar could have made a lot more cars but can't get enough batteries. The new e-Tron has been a big hit in Norway so far, but they can't deliver enough. How is the situation for Volkswagen?

icelancer 7y ago
>> Audi and Jaguar could have made a lot more cars but can't get enough batteries. This is exactly what Elon said was going to happen years ago: Car manufacturers do not have the capacity to build batteries in sufficient quantity and quality and will not for many years.
- imtringued 7y ago
  And this was obvious from the start. Tesla is in a unique situation where they basically build their own battery factories and get exclusive access to batteries. ICE manufacturers don't want to become battery manufacturers themselves but they also don't want to commit money to bootstrap a third party manufacturer (that may end up supplying their competition) if they can get away with selling ICE cars.

gibolt 7y ago

Tesla is the only company that has a Gigafactory producing batteries, and starting to build more. A few others finally get it, and are starting to invest billions just like Tesla's Panasonic arrangement. However, Tesla will soon be moving to their next iteration, producing far more batteries faster, cheaper, and in much less space.

bildung 7y ago
Actually Teslas vertical integration will be a disadvantage, I think. There are many independent battery manufacturers, and many new plants already in construction for a few years. China alone will produce in excess of 500GWh in 5 years, and Europe about 400GWh [0]. Batteries will be a commodity in the very near future, and the current supply crunches seem more to be about the metals needed, not the actual battery production. [0] https://insideevs.com/news/397955/10-chinese-battery-makers-50-gwh-2025/ https://insideevs.com/news/397955/10-chinese-battery-makers-...
- gibolt 7y ago
  Tesla will be able to buy those up as well, just like they are doing with CATL in China. As a battery manufacturer, your goal is to make and sell as many batteries as possible. Tesla wants a much larger number than the other players.

Infinitesimus 7y ago

> How will Tesla, who did 4 models in ten years, compete with the sheer breadth of this market? Looking at what’s parked in the street, people choose lots of different types of cars, there’s no one-fits-all. Imagine this argument: "How will Apple, who only has one phone model, compete with the sheer breadth of this market? Looking at what’s in people's hands, people choose lots of different types of phones, there’s no one-fits-all." Yet here we are. Having so many car models is frankly exhausting. One of my silly little hobbies is trying to spec out cars online I dream of buying and everything becomes a chore after the first 10 seconds. Options that I don't want to think about being nickel-and-dimed for, features that should come standard but require an upgrade 'package' I dont want etc. Until they change how they think about cars, Tesla will keep beating them in the market in the price ranges Tesla competes in. And shit will hit the fan if Tesla ever figures out a way to make a much cheaper car for the mass market

veggieburglar 7y ago
Apple is currently selling six different iPhone models on its website.
- tonyedgecombe 7y ago
  Yes, Apple made a lot of noise about the original lineup being simple because that was all they had. Commercial pressures will always lead to lots of choices because that's how the company extracts the most value it can from each customer.
- Infinitesimus 7y ago
  Yep, but they didn't launch with all 6. In fact, they added each one after tremendous market pressure (larger phones, multiple sizes, a one-handed budget-friendly model). Tesla might very well have 10 cars in the future but for now, buying a Tesla is an easy decision: 1. Do I want a big sedan? Model S 2. Do I want a big suv? Model X 3. Do I want a smaller sedan? Model 3 4. Do I want a smaller suv/crossover/cuv? Model Y And just like apple, you get very similar experience across the entire lineup. Autopilot, automatic updates, etc. Not "Well, you can buy the lexus/bimmer/merc if you want a more luxurious experience but the base model is honestly just okay so you should probably get a specced out mid-tier car instead unless you have the $$ to spend on a top trim"

ericd 7y ago

Most manufacturers with interesting EV models out aren’t able to make them in any appreciable volume, because they don’t have the battery supply. So they just basically do lots of paper launches, while Tesla competes by actually making a ton of the cars that they announce, extending their lead in supply and battery tech, and expanding one by one into their competitors’ popular segments. Model Y is coming for the enormous crossover SUV market, supposedly first deliveries on the 15th. Which is hugely ironic given their old reputation for paper launches.

tonyedgecombe 7y ago
Given that is the case I don't know why they don't focus on plugin hybrids right now.

slaw 7y ago

I don't see Tesla being ahead in technology. Range at 75mph: 2020 Tesla Model S performance: 222 miles 2020 Porsche Taycan Turbo: 204 miles https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a30874032/porsche-taycan-range-test-tesla-model-s/ https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a30874032/porsche-tayca...

s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
The Porsche is $185,000. The Tesla is $79,990. Whatever that one test says, the Porsche is still rated 100 miles under the Tesla in range and is twice as much in cost. That's not exactly tied in tech. And that's just the Model S. Where is the competitor to the Model 3? The Taycan is closer to the Tesla Roadster, except for the 3x range the roadster has. Similar price though. The Model S has no competition. The Model 3 has no competition.
koffiezet 7y ago
Where Tesla is ahead is mostly battery production capacity and tech. This is what pretty much every manufacturer is struggling with. For Porsche this is not really that big of an issue since they're relatively low-volume (which is also how Tesla bootstrapped itself) - but for others this is a much bigger problem. Tesla can right now produce a lot more electric cars than Porsche could.

jillesvangurp 7y ago

The problem everyone has is producing enough batteries. Tesla secured supply early when people thought they were crazy for wanting so much capacity. As it turns out, they need much more and they are building their own cells and factories. VW recently announced they have enough batteries to build ~1 million cars until 2023. Tesla might be hitting that as the annual production before that time. Other manufacturers are struggling to secure access to batteries and are supply limited even if they have interesting models that people want to buy (like some Honda or Hyundai models). IMHO, most manufacturers need another five years to straighten out their supplies and then another five to scale down their legacy business. That's why you see the likes of Toyota talking about hybrids a lot because they simply can't scale up EV production right now even if they wanted to. Because they lack access to enough batteries. Some manufacturers have wisened up. It looks like VW and GM have pretty solid plans and are expanding production as fast as they can. But they are talking about keeping up with and not overtaking Tesla. At least VWs CEO is.

w-m 7y ago
Battery supply was mentioned several times in the replies, but I have a hard time following the argument. Building batteries seems to be a simple process, at least compared to building the rest of the car: https://youtu.be/PZBQzLfCKpw https://youtu.be/PZBQzLfCKpw As there is more demand, it seems straightforward to bring up Gigafactory-sized new assembly lines quickly.
- koffiezet 7y ago
  You can build huge factories to build batteries, but getting the raw materials becomes tricky when one manufacturer secured the supplies for that way ahead of you, and you'll end up in second place.
  - w-m 7y ago
    I haven't heard about Tesla/Panasonic securing any raw materials years in advance. Would that even be economically sensible? There's lots of investment in R&D to try to reduce certain ingredients (cobalt), but for now it's probably a level playing field, everybody is in the same position in fighting to procure the raw materials.