8 ms·

Given that Merkel today said that 60-70% of German population will likely contract Covid-19 within next 2 years, assuming the mortality rate is 1%, that would t

by bitL 7y ago

Given that Merkel today said that 60-70% of German population will likely contract Covid-19 within next 2 years, assuming the mortality rate is 1%, that would translate into half a million deaths; I am wondering why nobody over there is panicking already... Germany went from 20 diagnosed cases to 1600 in about a week.

irq11 7y ago
So far there have been 902 infections in Germany (3rd highest in the EU), and 0 deaths. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases?fbclid=IwAR1Tyt8ZFjon-mHulUaW9VEoPeWDcoPGqqFJ_aWFEsKFAzdideinXTq6A7A https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019... I don’t know if Germany is magical or lucky, but assuming a 1% death rate may be a stretch. They seem to be doing far better than Italy.
- bitL 7y ago
  Your stats are old. Look over at zeit.de for a map or here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  - irq11 7y ago
    The stats came from yesterday’s European daily status report, which were the most current as of the time I posted (and where all of these other trackers get their numbers). I see that the numbers on the same link have now updated to today’s stats, and there have been 2 deaths and 1139 cases in Germany. It doesn’t change the point I was making in the slightest, which is that Germany has a death rate far, far below 1%. Did you even bother to click the link?
    - bitL 7y ago
      "Always assume positive intent." Yes, I did. Did you?
    - CydeWeys 7y ago
      Your stats are more out of date than this. There are now more than zero deaths in Germany, and presumably the death toll will grow substantially from here, like it has in every other country with COVID-19 infections.
      - irq11 7y ago
        You clearly didn’t bother reading the words in the post you’re replying to: 2 deaths in Germany as of today. These are the official European statistics from today. The ones from my original post were the official numbers from yesterday. These numbers are not out of date.
        bitL 7y ago
        zeit.de reported 2 deaths a day ago already. You are using outdated sources and are unwilling to use newer ones for whatever reason.
        irq11 7y ago
        They’re the official government source. Whatever you are using is pulling data directly from them.
        bitL 7y ago
        OK, good to know, though they are probably lagging a bit with information for the public.
        CydeWeys 7y ago
        Yeah, the numbers from yesterday are out of date compared to the numbers from today, by exactly one day. What part of this aren't you getting??
        irq11 7y ago
        They numbers are updated daily, and there was an update between when I posted, and when you made your comment. The source I posted always points to the most current official numbers. You should read it, instead of arguing.
    - swebs 7y ago
      >It doesn’t change the point I was making in the slightest, which is that Germany has a death rate far, far below 1%. The death rate is calculated by dead / (dead + recovered). The there are 2 deaths in Germany and 18 recoveries. That's 10%. This is probably skewed higher right now since they're not testing people with only mild symptoms.
jfkebwjsbx 7y ago
[deleted]
- prawn 7y ago
  I don't think they're suggesting that citizens panic but that authorities take more drastic steps (as you indicate you think they should have).
- ISL 7y ago
  As a citizen, you can remove yourself from travel and gatherings. The scaling of an outbreak is non-linear, so the choices of individuals have an outsized effect. My wife and I have both led by example in both choosing to work from home early on and arguing strenuously that our employers should make WFH company/University policy (which has now happened). Be leading by example and staying home, you make everyone else safer. If the effective R_0 can be brought below 1, the outbreak will burn out. We must show our care for those who cannot fight this virus by staying home, connecting electronically, and practicing good hygiene.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - Florin_Andrei 7y ago
    As a citizen you can do many things. But when whole populations need to act in a concerted way, a centralized decision-making mechanism is required. Everything else is naive dreaming.
    - ISL 7y ago
      Coordination helps, but the individual is not powerless. I do not need a central authority to tell me to care for those around me. Furthermore, we can use our voices and examples to convince others to make choices that are likely to help others. It isn't perfect, it doesn't always work, but in this instance, I am certain that it helps.
      - 7y ago
Barrin92 7y ago
> I am wondering why nobody over there is panicking already. because panic isn't really helping anybody and we've never been a particular panicked bunch. Well I guess unless inflation shoots up and we get Weimar PTSD or something. Just about the only thing that seems to really scare anyone. I think the behaviour of the tech companies is mostly theatrical because they love the PR of being at the cutting edge of pandemic behaviour or whatever but these companies employ hyper-aware nerds who probably won't touch their face in the next three month so meh. >Germany went from 20 diagnosed cases to 1600 in about a week. We also only had two deaths or so up until now so I think the conclusion here is that the disease is severely underdiagnosed in other countries with the exception of South Korea. We were able to diagnose so many cases because we have a relatively decentralised medical infrastructure who all have relatively high capacity.
- bitL 7y ago
  > the disease is severely underdiagnosed That's one possibility; the other is what is happening in Italy right now, i.e. initial 2 weeks of infections are done and now the severe cases remain and pass away. Like in South Korea 98% cases are in progress, so the outcome is not known yet and making any stats out of those is premature (i.e. too optimistic). I'd say nobody is going to shut down whole megalopolis cities if it was just a more severe flu...
  - Barrin92 7y ago
    we also have the cruise ship though or the death rates outside of Wuhan in China (about 0.7% so far) and they have a lot of recovered cases. Rather than everyone somehow lagging behind Italy's death rate I think it's likely that they have just lost the plot and there's a huge number of cases under the radar. >I'd say nobody is going to shut down whole megalopolis cities if it was just a more severe flu. I mean a severe flu by a factor of five or so is basically what this is, it's just that this in and of itself is really, really bad because nobody has the capacity to handle that many cases.
    - bitL 7y ago
      Flu typically doesn't need breathing apparatus. I think in 1-2 months we will know much more and will have better stats. Until then I think treating it as R0 > 2 and mortality rate of 1-2% would serve us well.
woutr_be 7y ago
Having lived through it for the past month here in Hong Kong, please do not panic. I've seen what panicking does, and it really doesn't help anyone. A simple rumour triggered a run on toilet paper, we even had a toilet paper heist, and for what, only to realise there is in fact enough toilet paper. One recommendation I would make, buy a box of face masks and some hand sanitiser, but only buy the minimum amount you need. I found it absolutely ridiculous that some people here bought all the stock, so that they could keep themselves and their family safe for years, obviously that doesn't help prevent the spread if other people don't have access to those goods. It seems the measures Hong Kong has taken works, with only around 160 cases so far. I was surprised how quickly it spread over in Europe.
- clumsysmurf 7y ago
  > I would make, buy a box of face masks and some hand sanitiser I've been looking for these this past week in Arizona, but the shelves have been empty. I started going to all the stores I usually shop at multiple times per day to find something; its a drain on my time and probably increases my risk of getting stuff just by being outside.
  - woutr_be 7y ago
    I imagine they'll be hard to come by these days, personally I doubt wearing a face mask will make a real difference. From what I've seen here, most of the cases are from people who had close contact with someone who was already infected, be it over dinner, or from family members. Maybe I'm wrong, but I haven't seen any cases from people getting randomly infected on the streets. At least here in HK I understand, people often come in close contact with strangers, be it on the bus or MTR, of just walking on the streets. But I imagine that in most other countries there's less population density, so it's easier to keep your distance.
    - tonyztan 7y ago
      "Professional and Home-Made Face Masks Reduce Exposure to Respiratory Infections among the General Population" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2440799/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2440799/
dx034 7y ago
>1% of the population dies every year. Mortality rate increases with age for COVID. So if you assume 1% deaths over a two year period it'd increase deaths by 50% for two years, mostly of people with low life expectancy. This is obviously bad but I find it unlikely that it would have a lasting impact on society.
- _-___________-_ 7y ago
  In estimating the real fatality rate of this virus as 1%, there is a built-in assumption that all infections have been reported as cases, which seems wildly optimistic. Given that >=80% of infections may be asymptomatic or have minor symptoms, it's very likely that the case fatality rate is much higher than the real fatality rate.
  - dx034 7y ago
    Current mortality rates are around 3-4%. A mortality rate of 1% already assumes a large number of unreported cases. I saw estimates of 0.7% but they seem wildly optimistic in how many people having reported.
    - _-___________-_ 7y ago
      1% only assumes 66-75% unreported cases. With estimates of asymptomatic/low-severity infections above 80%, the ratio of infections that never get reported as cases is likely to be higher than that.
iso1210 7y ago
If people die of COVID-19 instead of other health problems like strokes, then that's not a major problem. The question is how many additional deaths will there be.
odiroot 7y ago
Because the economy is the most important "voter" in here. No one is willing to (short-term) damage the economy for the sake of protecting it long-term.
_-___________-_ 7y ago
1% might be the case fatality rate, but it's likely at least an order of magnitude higher than the real mortality rate. With estimates of asymptomatic / minor symptoms people above 80%, most infections are not being recorded as cases.
fi358 7y ago
I think this based on the assumption that R0 is about 2.3. That means that on average, one infected person infects 2.3 other persons. Then you need to have about 60 percent of population to get immunity against the virus by first being infected with it. At that point you reach the threshold for herd immunity and the disease will soon stop spreading. However, R0 is not a constant. For example, with good hygiene, avoiding human contacts etc it is possible to lower the rate of average number of persons each sick person infects. If we manage to do that, the threshold for herd immunity will be lower than 60 %.

by bitL 7y ago

irq11 7y ago

So far there have been 902 infections in Germany (3rd highest in the EU), and 0 deaths. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases?fbclid=IwAR1Tyt8ZFjon-mHulUaW9VEoPeWDcoPGqqFJ_aWFEsKFAzdideinXTq6A7A https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019... I don’t know if Germany is magical or lucky, but assuming a 1% death rate may be a stretch. They seem to be doing far better than Italy.

bitL 7y ago
Your stats are old. Look over at zeit.de for a map or here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
- irq11 7y ago
  The stats came from yesterday’s European daily status report, which were the most current as of the time I posted (and where all of these other trackers get their numbers). I see that the numbers on the same link have now updated to today’s stats, and there have been 2 deaths and 1139 cases in Germany. It doesn’t change the point I was making in the slightest, which is that Germany has a death rate far, far below 1%. Did you even bother to click the link?
  - bitL 7y ago
    "Always assume positive intent." Yes, I did. Did you?
  - CydeWeys 7y ago
    Your stats are more out of date than this. There are now more than zero deaths in Germany, and presumably the death toll will grow substantially from here, like it has in every other country with COVID-19 infections.
    - irq11 7y ago
      You clearly didn’t bother reading the words in the post you’re replying to: 2 deaths in Germany as of today. These are the official European statistics from today. The ones from my original post were the official numbers from yesterday. These numbers are not out of date.
      - bitL 7y ago
        zeit.de reported 2 deaths a day ago already. You are using outdated sources and are unwilling to use newer ones for whatever reason.
        irq11 7y ago
        They’re the official government source. Whatever you are using is pulling data directly from them.
        bitL 7y ago
        OK, good to know, though they are probably lagging a bit with information for the public.
      - CydeWeys 7y ago
        Yeah, the numbers from yesterday are out of date compared to the numbers from today, by exactly one day. What part of this aren't you getting??
        irq11 7y ago
        They numbers are updated daily, and there was an update between when I posted, and when you made your comment. The source I posted always points to the most current official numbers. You should read it, instead of arguing.
  - swebs 7y ago
    >It doesn’t change the point I was making in the slightest, which is that Germany has a death rate far, far below 1%. The death rate is calculated by dead / (dead + recovered). The there are 2 deaths in Germany and 18 recoveries. That's 10%. This is probably skewed higher right now since they're not testing people with only mild symptoms.

jfkebwjsbx 7y ago

[deleted]

prawn 7y ago
I don't think they're suggesting that citizens panic but that authorities take more drastic steps (as you indicate you think they should have).
ISL 7y ago
As a citizen, you can remove yourself from travel and gatherings. The scaling of an outbreak is non-linear, so the choices of individuals have an outsized effect. My wife and I have both led by example in both choosing to work from home early on and arguing strenuously that our employers should make WFH company/University policy (which has now happened). Be leading by example and staying home, you make everyone else safer. If the effective R_0 can be brought below 1, the outbreak will burn out. We must show our care for those who cannot fight this virus by staying home, connecting electronically, and practicing good hygiene.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- Florin_Andrei 7y ago
  As a citizen you can do many things. But when whole populations need to act in a concerted way, a centralized decision-making mechanism is required. Everything else is naive dreaming.
  - ISL 7y ago
    Coordination helps, but the individual is not powerless. I do not need a central authority to tell me to care for those around me. Furthermore, we can use our voices and examples to convince others to make choices that are likely to help others. It isn't perfect, it doesn't always work, but in this instance, I am certain that it helps.
    - 7y ago

Barrin92 7y ago

> I am wondering why nobody over there is panicking already. because panic isn't really helping anybody and we've never been a particular panicked bunch. Well I guess unless inflation shoots up and we get Weimar PTSD or something. Just about the only thing that seems to really scare anyone. I think the behaviour of the tech companies is mostly theatrical because they love the PR of being at the cutting edge of pandemic behaviour or whatever but these companies employ hyper-aware nerds who probably won't touch their face in the next three month so meh. >Germany went from 20 diagnosed cases to 1600 in about a week. We also only had two deaths or so up until now so I think the conclusion here is that the disease is severely underdiagnosed in other countries with the exception of South Korea. We were able to diagnose so many cases because we have a relatively decentralised medical infrastructure who all have relatively high capacity.

bitL 7y ago
> the disease is severely underdiagnosed That's one possibility; the other is what is happening in Italy right now, i.e. initial 2 weeks of infections are done and now the severe cases remain and pass away. Like in South Korea 98% cases are in progress, so the outcome is not known yet and making any stats out of those is premature (i.e. too optimistic). I'd say nobody is going to shut down whole megalopolis cities if it was just a more severe flu...
- Barrin92 7y ago
  we also have the cruise ship though or the death rates outside of Wuhan in China (about 0.7% so far) and they have a lot of recovered cases. Rather than everyone somehow lagging behind Italy's death rate I think it's likely that they have just lost the plot and there's a huge number of cases under the radar. >I'd say nobody is going to shut down whole megalopolis cities if it was just a more severe flu. I mean a severe flu by a factor of five or so is basically what this is, it's just that this in and of itself is really, really bad because nobody has the capacity to handle that many cases.
  - bitL 7y ago
    Flu typically doesn't need breathing apparatus. I think in 1-2 months we will know much more and will have better stats. Until then I think treating it as R0 > 2 and mortality rate of 1-2% would serve us well.

woutr_be 7y ago

Having lived through it for the past month here in Hong Kong, please do not panic. I've seen what panicking does, and it really doesn't help anyone. A simple rumour triggered a run on toilet paper, we even had a toilet paper heist, and for what, only to realise there is in fact enough toilet paper. One recommendation I would make, buy a box of face masks and some hand sanitiser, but only buy the minimum amount you need. I found it absolutely ridiculous that some people here bought all the stock, so that they could keep themselves and their family safe for years, obviously that doesn't help prevent the spread if other people don't have access to those goods. It seems the measures Hong Kong has taken works, with only around 160 cases so far. I was surprised how quickly it spread over in Europe.

clumsysmurf 7y ago
> I would make, buy a box of face masks and some hand sanitiser I've been looking for these this past week in Arizona, but the shelves have been empty. I started going to all the stores I usually shop at multiple times per day to find something; its a drain on my time and probably increases my risk of getting stuff just by being outside.
- woutr_be 7y ago
  I imagine they'll be hard to come by these days, personally I doubt wearing a face mask will make a real difference. From what I've seen here, most of the cases are from people who had close contact with someone who was already infected, be it over dinner, or from family members. Maybe I'm wrong, but I haven't seen any cases from people getting randomly infected on the streets. At least here in HK I understand, people often come in close contact with strangers, be it on the bus or MTR, of just walking on the streets. But I imagine that in most other countries there's less population density, so it's easier to keep your distance.
  - tonyztan 7y ago
    "Professional and Home-Made Face Masks Reduce Exposure to Respiratory Infections among the General Population" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2440799/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2440799/

dx034 7y ago

>1% of the population dies every year. Mortality rate increases with age for COVID. So if you assume 1% deaths over a two year period it'd increase deaths by 50% for two years, mostly of people with low life expectancy. This is obviously bad but I find it unlikely that it would have a lasting impact on society.

_-___________-_ 7y ago
In estimating the real fatality rate of this virus as 1%, there is a built-in assumption that all infections have been reported as cases, which seems wildly optimistic. Given that >=80% of infections may be asymptomatic or have minor symptoms, it's very likely that the case fatality rate is much higher than the real fatality rate.
- dx034 7y ago
  Current mortality rates are around 3-4%. A mortality rate of 1% already assumes a large number of unreported cases. I saw estimates of 0.7% but they seem wildly optimistic in how many people having reported.
  - _-___________-_ 7y ago
    1% only assumes 66-75% unreported cases. With estimates of asymptomatic/low-severity infections above 80%, the ratio of infections that never get reported as cases is likely to be higher than that.

iso1210 7y ago

If people die of COVID-19 instead of other health problems like strokes, then that's not a major problem. The question is how many additional deaths will there be.

odiroot 7y ago

Because the economy is the most important "voter" in here. No one is willing to (short-term) damage the economy for the sake of protecting it long-term.

_-___________-_ 7y ago

1% might be the case fatality rate, but it's likely at least an order of magnitude higher than the real mortality rate. With estimates of asymptomatic / minor symptoms people above 80%, most infections are not being recorded as cases.

fi358 7y ago

I think this based on the assumption that R0 is about 2.3. That means that on average, one infected person infects 2.3 other persons. Then you need to have about 60 percent of population to get immunity against the virus by first being infected with it. At that point you reach the threshold for herd immunity and the disease will soon stop spreading. However, R0 is not a constant. For example, with good hygiene, avoiding human contacts etc it is possible to lower the rate of average number of persons each sick person infects. If we manage to do that, the threshold for herd immunity will be lower than 60 %.