7 ms·

New York deploys National Guard to New Rochelle, establishes containment center

88 points by smacktoward 7y ago

StanislavPetrov 7y ago
Here on nearby Long Island cases are popping up all over the place with no known links to other diagnosed cases, including 2 school bus drivers. Despite this, barely anyone is being tested, even those who are symptomatic. This crisis is being terribly mishandled. https://www.fox5ny.com/news/two-long-island-bus-drivers-diagnosed-with-coronavirus https://www.fox5ny.com/news/two-long-island-bus-drivers-diag...
- thearn4 7y ago
  It's the lack of information and sense that there are no adults in the room among our leadership that is the most frustrating. It worries me more than the virus itself.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - pjc50 7y ago
    Self-contradictory instructions and a lack of common sense: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/immigration/article241046076.html https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/immigration/article24...
  - alexandercrohde 7y ago
    In a way that may be a good thing. I'm personally not very worried about this virus, and I think it does a great job of highlighting what various parties' motives are and efficacies are. (e.g. CDC, Bill Gates, NYC) I'm hopeful change will come out of this.
    - seilrse 7y ago
      You might not be worried, but millions of elderly and otherwise immunocompromised people are. Millions more are worried on their behalf.
- taborj 7y ago
  I've not been keeping up; what's the obstacle to getting tested? Insurance companies not covering? Hospitals not willing? Patients not going in?
  - dforrestwilson 7y ago
    # of test kits. The US can currently test something like 7800 people per day as of yesterday. Some other system constraints to think about are: 1M hospital beds 70k ventilators
    - hangonhn 7y ago
      I don't know if this is still true but according to an article I read a few days ago, the US has the lowest testing rate of any affected country. Experiences of other countries seem to suggest that high testing rate may mitigate the need for measures like lockdowns.
      - throwaway5752 7y ago
        By an order of magnitude: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-per-capita-chart-us-behind-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-covid-19...
        DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
        CDC also stopped reporting number of tests each day (last week iirc).
        adventured 7y ago
        That's misleading. The Feds state that they've sent several hundred thousand tests to private labs and hospitals which do not report their figures directly to CDC. They don't know how many have been used at this point (which is bad, but not as bad as them not sending out hundreds of thousands of tests). "Earlier on Tuesday, Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said he couldn’t provide the figure. “We don’t know exactly how many because hundreds of thousands of our tests have gone out to private labs and hospitals that currently do not report in to CDC,” he said in a CNN appearance." https://news.yahoo.com/only-5000-americans-have-been-tested-for-the-coronavirus-so-far-151447195.html https://news.yahoo.com/only-5000-americans-have-been-tested-...
- empath75 7y ago
  It doesn't help that so many people keep downplaying it. It's almost like they have to see hospitals filling up first hand before they worry about it.
- r00fus 7y ago
  At what point does it become criminally incompetent? What's the endgame here for those who dally while the world burns?
- dugditches 7y ago
  They used to post the number of tests on the site. They've stopped. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/health//health-topics/coronavirus.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/health//health-topics/coronavi... if you pull up the cached version, they reported 300 tests done as of yesterday morning.
  - dillondoyle 7y ago
    Colorado has too. They said "I would assume that with testing ramping up it's no longer productive for the state to keep the number of administered tests count on a website as it will always be outdated."
thn483 7y ago
NYC is seeing a crazy number of cases. Expect more quarantines in the city and around it in the next few days. They are not even releasing new numbers. They are too scary.
downerending 7y ago
Might not sound like it, but the fact that they're taking this seriously is good news. If there are cases in New Rochelle, probably large numbers of other commuters taking the New Haven line down into Manhattan have been exposed. We need to start practicing on what's coming, and right now, China's looking like the most successful model.
- fgonzag 7y ago
  It's basically impossible to quarantine entire cities in a democracy, especially with an election coming up. I mean, you can, but it's going to cost you so much political capital that you'll be out of the game entirely. And I don't see many politicians willing to put their jobs on the line for it.
  - LifeLiverTransp 7y ago
    Its a gamble, but once the bodys drop, you can return that gamble investment into political currency.
  - catacombs 7y ago
    > I mean, you can, but it's going to cost you so much political capital that you'll be out of the game entirely. And I don't see many politicians willing to put their jobs on the line for it. Jesus. Putting people's lives at risk, just so you can keep your government job? How low can we can go?
    - ASalazarMX 7y ago
      Let's cause death and poverty on many third world countries so we can maintain our global economic status. Is that low enough? I mean, it's over-the-top nonsense, but compared to it, putting a city to hang is easy.
    - kryogen1c 7y ago
      why is it that everyone always releases the public from their half of the responsibility? politicians are participating in game theory and acting out their best interests based on the other players. It takes two to tango. I suppose this opens up a slippery slope whose neighbors are authoritarianism and will-less-ness and, in their innocence and ignorance, people cease to venture forth.
RickJWagner 7y ago
Here's an article from CBS, it seems to urge calm and reasonable containment. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/10/dr_drew_pinsky_coronavirus_panic_must_stop_press_needs_to_be_held_accountable_for_hurting_people.html https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/10/dr_drew_p...
- jonahbenton 7y ago
  That story and his individual points fall apart upon analysis. The below is the best current analytical distillation I've seen of where we are: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop... The upshot is: a) there is a huge diff between localities that act aggressively and prepare and those that dont b) the ones that prepare and act aggressively to reduce exposure see death rates below 1%. This is still 5-10x more deadly than the flu, and is best case c) the ones that dont see death rates above 5%. This is 50-100x worse than the flu. In the US Washington and San Fran are failing to act aggressively enough in time. The article doesnt discuss NYC, where I live, which has similar levels of infections as Washington tho far fewer deaths. The piece explains how the difference in death rate indicates NYC is in a far better position than Washington, and my own analysis is that we may still have time to stop the worst case, but it is really about what happens in the next several days. Even in worst case, most people will themselves be fine, but everyone knows at least someone immune compromised or elderly or otherwise much more significantly at risk. So everyone's social or familial network will be impacted. In terms of the future, it seems likely that even in best case, there will be subsequent waves that hit pockets that were missed the first time around. The difference in impact again will be in how overwhelmed the local hospital system will be. In the US this is likely to be highly variable as healthcare, bed availability, etc, is non-uniform. And, yes, a vaccine in 12-18 months is pretty much the dream scenario. No guarantee we get there. The dynamics of this are not something most of us have ever experienced.
kyuudou 7y ago
Living up to its name, Empire state
RickJWagner 7y ago
I wonder what will happen after this first wave passes. Will people then need to get 2 shots each year, once for flu and once for corona and it's descendants? Can the two be handled with a single shot? I wonder also what will become of small population centers that manage to avoid the first wave. Will they suffer more greatly in the future, when the virus finally finds them?

88 points by smacktoward 7y ago

Here on nearby Long Island cases are popping up all over the place with no known links to other diagnosed cases, including 2 school bus drivers. Despite this, barely anyone is being tested, even those who are symptomatic. This crisis is being terribly mishandled. https://www.fox5ny.com/news/two-long-island-bus-drivers-diagnosed-with-coronavirus https://www.fox5ny.com/news/two-long-island-bus-drivers-diag...

thearn4 7y ago
It's the lack of information and sense that there are no adults in the room among our leadership that is the most frustrating. It worries me more than the virus itself.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- pjc50 7y ago
  Self-contradictory instructions and a lack of common sense: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/immigration/article241046076.html https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/immigration/article24...
- alexandercrohde 7y ago
  In a way that may be a good thing. I'm personally not very worried about this virus, and I think it does a great job of highlighting what various parties' motives are and efficacies are. (e.g. CDC, Bill Gates, NYC) I'm hopeful change will come out of this.
  - seilrse 7y ago
    You might not be worried, but millions of elderly and otherwise immunocompromised people are. Millions more are worried on their behalf.
taborj 7y ago
I've not been keeping up; what's the obstacle to getting tested? Insurance companies not covering? Hospitals not willing? Patients not going in?
- dforrestwilson 7y ago
  # of test kits. The US can currently test something like 7800 people per day as of yesterday. Some other system constraints to think about are: 1M hospital beds 70k ventilators
  - hangonhn 7y ago
    I don't know if this is still true but according to an article I read a few days ago, the US has the lowest testing rate of any affected country. Experiences of other countries seem to suggest that high testing rate may mitigate the need for measures like lockdowns.
    - throwaway5752 7y ago
      By an order of magnitude: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-per-capita-chart-us-behind-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-covid-19...
      - DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
        CDC also stopped reporting number of tests each day (last week iirc).
      - adventured 7y ago
        That's misleading. The Feds state that they've sent several hundred thousand tests to private labs and hospitals which do not report their figures directly to CDC. They don't know how many have been used at this point (which is bad, but not as bad as them not sending out hundreds of thousands of tests). "Earlier on Tuesday, Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said he couldn’t provide the figure. “We don’t know exactly how many because hundreds of thousands of our tests have gone out to private labs and hospitals that currently do not report in to CDC,” he said in a CNN appearance." https://news.yahoo.com/only-5000-americans-have-been-tested-for-the-coronavirus-so-far-151447195.html https://news.yahoo.com/only-5000-americans-have-been-tested-...
empath75 7y ago
It doesn't help that so many people keep downplaying it. It's almost like they have to see hospitals filling up first hand before they worry about it.
r00fus 7y ago
At what point does it become criminally incompetent? What's the endgame here for those who dally while the world burns?
dugditches 7y ago
They used to post the number of tests on the site. They've stopped. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/health//health-topics/coronavirus.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/health//health-topics/coronavi... if you pull up the cached version, they reported 300 tests done as of yesterday morning.
- dillondoyle 7y ago
  Colorado has too. They said "I would assume that with testing ramping up it's no longer productive for the state to keep the number of administered tests count on a website as it will always be outdated."

thn483 7y ago

NYC is seeing a crazy number of cases. Expect more quarantines in the city and around it in the next few days. They are not even releasing new numbers. They are too scary.

downerending 7y ago

Might not sound like it, but the fact that they're taking this seriously is good news. If there are cases in New Rochelle, probably large numbers of other commuters taking the New Haven line down into Manhattan have been exposed. We need to start practicing on what's coming, and right now, China's looking like the most successful model.

fgonzag 7y ago
It's basically impossible to quarantine entire cities in a democracy, especially with an election coming up. I mean, you can, but it's going to cost you so much political capital that you'll be out of the game entirely. And I don't see many politicians willing to put their jobs on the line for it.
- LifeLiverTransp 7y ago
  Its a gamble, but once the bodys drop, you can return that gamble investment into political currency.
- catacombs 7y ago
  > I mean, you can, but it's going to cost you so much political capital that you'll be out of the game entirely. And I don't see many politicians willing to put their jobs on the line for it. Jesus. Putting people's lives at risk, just so you can keep your government job? How low can we can go?
  - ASalazarMX 7y ago
    Let's cause death and poverty on many third world countries so we can maintain our global economic status. Is that low enough? I mean, it's over-the-top nonsense, but compared to it, putting a city to hang is easy.
  - kryogen1c 7y ago
    why is it that everyone always releases the public from their half of the responsibility? politicians are participating in game theory and acting out their best interests based on the other players. It takes two to tango. I suppose this opens up a slippery slope whose neighbors are authoritarianism and will-less-ness and, in their innocence and ignorance, people cease to venture forth.

RickJWagner 7y ago

Here's an article from CBS, it seems to urge calm and reasonable containment. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/10/dr_drew_pinsky_coronavirus_panic_must_stop_press_needs_to_be_held_accountable_for_hurting_people.html https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/10/dr_drew_p...

jonahbenton 7y ago
That story and his individual points fall apart upon analysis. The below is the best current analytical distillation I've seen of where we are: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop... The upshot is: a) there is a huge diff between localities that act aggressively and prepare and those that dont b) the ones that prepare and act aggressively to reduce exposure see death rates below 1%. This is still 5-10x more deadly than the flu, and is best case c) the ones that dont see death rates above 5%. This is 50-100x worse than the flu. In the US Washington and San Fran are failing to act aggressively enough in time. The article doesnt discuss NYC, where I live, which has similar levels of infections as Washington tho far fewer deaths. The piece explains how the difference in death rate indicates NYC is in a far better position than Washington, and my own analysis is that we may still have time to stop the worst case, but it is really about what happens in the next several days. Even in worst case, most people will themselves be fine, but everyone knows at least someone immune compromised or elderly or otherwise much more significantly at risk. So everyone's social or familial network will be impacted. In terms of the future, it seems likely that even in best case, there will be subsequent waves that hit pockets that were missed the first time around. The difference in impact again will be in how overwhelmed the local hospital system will be. In the US this is likely to be highly variable as healthcare, bed availability, etc, is non-uniform. And, yes, a vaccine in 12-18 months is pretty much the dream scenario. No guarantee we get there. The dynamics of this are not something most of us have ever experienced.

kyuudou 7y ago

Living up to its name, Empire state

RickJWagner 7y ago

I wonder what will happen after this first wave passes. Will people then need to get 2 shots each year, once for flu and once for corona and it's descendants? Can the two be handled with a single shot? I wonder also what will become of small population centers that manage to avoid the first wave. Will they suffer more greatly in the future, when the virus finally finds them?