5 ms·

I'm in Berlin and people are making zero effort to alter their usual patterns.

hef19898 7y ago
As of yesterday, Berlin is no way a risk zone as of now. So why should they? Doesnt mean you can't change your behaviour, so.
- rorykoehler 7y ago
  That is an incredibly short sighted view. We need to be proactive not reactive. This virus is here and it's here in a big way. Positive cases are not the full picture. Median incubation period is 5 days. Italy is a warning and we're not taking it. We should all be in quarantine now so this doesn't get out of hand rather than wait for it to become uncontrollable and then trying to de-escalate it.
  - hef19898 7y ago
    Ok, so you suggest every single person in Germany to be quarantined. Whether they have symptoms or not. Now that's what I call an over reaction.
    - esistgut 7y ago
      This kind of thinking is exactly the mistake China and Italy did. Please, I beg you to learn from our errors.
    - coldtea 7y ago
      Well, let's just wait for a million dead like they expect in Italy then... that would be a proper, timid, reaction...
      - shadow28 7y ago
        You just pulled that number out of your ass, didn't you?
        coldtea 7y ago
        Andrea Ricciardi, Professor of Hygiene and adviser to the Ministry of Health: "The most frightening point is the pitted figures on how much the virus can spread. the curves of the graphs elaborated by the epidemiologists and not only in Italy: according to the models, it could strike until 60% of the population, which means that according to the mortality rates there could be a million deaths only in Italy." Feel happy now about the ad-hominem?
        coldtea 7y ago
        Here's another, this time for the US: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/up-to-150-million-americans-are-expected-to-contract-the-coronavirus-congressional-doctor-says.html?fbclid=IwAR2nhJ-w4TcECk7-OWvrsbN65_MU4z533Hj_RkBpw60OCw3tT15VPujeJCk https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/up-to-150-million-americans-...
      - johnchristopher 7y ago
        That's a huge number. Where did you get it from ?
        coldtea 7y ago
        See my answer to the parent comment.
      - hef19898 7y ago
        Please, stop throwing around totally fake numbers like that.
        coldtea 7y ago
        Italy has a population of 60 million. The WHO reports "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died". If 50% the population gets infected, and if it's not 3.4% but "just" 3% mortality rate, that's already 1 million dead. And according to some experts, even 70% infection rate is predicted. Second, this 3.4% percentage of deceased patients, is at the early stages, with fewer patients and preventive measures (so that most patients that needed hospital treatment got it). A 10% or more of patients of COVID-19 will need hospital treatment and ICU. As the number of patients rise, there wont be as many ICU units (and doctors are getting infected themselves at an alarming rate). In Italy with ~ 7000 cases, "hospitals are scrambling to increase the number of beds available in intensive care units. Some have closed entire wards to dedicate them to severe coronavirus cases. Others have transformed operating rooms into intensive care units. Doctors are working grueling shifts to cover for colleagues who fall ill". Let's put it this way, they have 9,172 cases and 463 deaths. Now imagine with 100,000 or 1,000,000 cases -- still very far from the predicted 70%.
        hef19898 7y ago
        That's not how epidemics work. Even China was nowhere near these numbers. Stuff like that doesn't spread the way you assume it does. But ok, the source is your own calculations. Thanks for confirming.
        coldtea 7y ago
        >That's not how epidemics work. That's not how epidemics work when they are contained quickly. Europe has done a bad job at this. Epidemics in the past have killed many times as many as the percentages above.
        hef19898 7y ago
      - xen0 7y ago
        This is coming from 3.4% mortality rate from reported cases, but how many are not reported? How many people just suffer a mild cold, or are completely asymptomatic and never get reported? As an overall mortality rate, it is almost certainly too high.
    - shawabawa3 7y ago
      The only realistic way to stop the virus from looking at other countries responses is to overreact relative to what other countries have done
    - roenxi 7y ago
      We have months of data now. If the virus gets out of control; countries find that out because the hospital system gets overwhelmed and they have to bring in a hard quarantine. Countries have to overreact to the circumstances that they are confronted with because in a week the situation will be much worse if they don't. The only options are to overreact when everything seems fine or to overreact when the hospitals are full past capacity. The choices here are to overreact before the virus gets past the border; overreact when the first cases appear; overreact when the first cluster is identified or overreact when people who can't breath are being turned away from hospitals. We have yet to see what happens past that point because so far everyone has instituted a quarantine then. Germany is at the clusters developing stage.
      - RobertoG 7y ago
        I don't think you are using "overreact" properly. If it's the appropriate response, then, by definition, is not overreacting. In line with what you are saying, a problem, is that the proper reaction, if works, looks like an overreaction later. So, politically, there is an incentive to do nothing.
    - rambojazz 7y ago
      It does sound extremely over the top indeed, but it might be the only way to prevent the spreading. It appears that by the time you find the first case, you are too late as the virus has been spreading all over the place. Maybe quarantining everybody, even from area with zero cases, is too much... but at least people should make a strong effort to reduce social activities for a few months.
    - martin_bech 7y ago
      No, thats beeing responsible.
- rglullis 7y ago
  "Most turkeys in farms are super happy, healthy and fat until some days before Thanksgiving. Why should they act like they could be slaughtered?"
  - hef19898 7y ago
    Because turkeys are always fat. Happy and healthy is a diiferent story. And they get slaughtered, becasue that is the reason the are at the farm in the first place. Using that analogy for a disease is jst plain wrong.
    - rglullis 7y ago
      Before this conversation goes any further, perhaps you should read The Black Swan? Or if you don't like my turkey reference, let's stay in the realm of technology. Pop quiz: who said "Only the paranoid survive?"
- ximi 7y ago
  Because it's only a matter of time before the virus will be in Berlin (if it's not already). Nobody is suggesting people should quarantine themselves in Berlin, but avoiding crowded spaces, not touching your face and frequently washing your hands doesn't seem at all unreasonable.
  - rorykoehler 7y ago
    40 confirmed cases here.
- ulfw 7y ago
  Wow. And you magically know that how, exactly?
  - hef19898 7y ago
    May have changed, but yesterday Berlin wasn't listed in the high risk regions that was shared by Bavarian health authorities. Didn't check today, so. EDIT: According to officials, one county in germany is considered high risk (link in German): https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Risikogebiete.html https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus...
    - rorykoehler 7y ago
      It's futile arguing that the risk is low because the officials classified it as such when I stated that I disagree with their risk assessment and management strategy. If I look at a risk matrix I would classify the risk impact of not quarantining as significant to disastrous and the likelihood as very likely. That puts the current situation in all of the world at the highest risk. Risk matrix example: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Kevin_Fleming3/publication/260010346/figure/fig1/AS:297248975015943@1447881086616/Example-of-how-different-scenarios-fit-within-a-risk-matrix-4.png https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Kevin_Fleming3/publicat...
      - hef19898 7y ago
        One last comment because you clearly seem to prefer to live in your own world. Assessing risk the way you do has one big issue (it actually has multiple but let's stick with one). When you put Corona in the disastrous category you habe to provide reasons for doing so, otherwise it is just a gut feeling. And by classifying it as disastrous, you run into issues when classifying stuff like Ebola for example. Over-classifying has that effect on measuring systems, that's why you need teams of experts from multiple disciplines to do it properly. And would have to do so at multiple sub levels for each criteria. The whole purpose is to take gut feeling and emotions out of the process. Doing it alone makes the whole exercise pointless. Now, take that whatever way you want.
luckylion 7y ago
That's Berlin for you though. I think you need to have a much higher threshold for disgust and fear to consider living there. I'm close to Hamburg. We've had two or three confirmed cases in the county. Patients are quarantined at home and stable. Schools have been temporarily closed, but reopened now. The administration is taking it very serious and people are stocking up on everything, including cake.

hef19898 7y ago

As of yesterday, Berlin is no way a risk zone as of now. So why should they? Doesnt mean you can't change your behaviour, so.

rorykoehler 7y ago
That is an incredibly short sighted view. We need to be proactive not reactive. This virus is here and it's here in a big way. Positive cases are not the full picture. Median incubation period is 5 days. Italy is a warning and we're not taking it. We should all be in quarantine now so this doesn't get out of hand rather than wait for it to become uncontrollable and then trying to de-escalate it.
- hef19898 7y ago
  Ok, so you suggest every single person in Germany to be quarantined. Whether they have symptoms or not. Now that's what I call an over reaction.
  - esistgut 7y ago
    This kind of thinking is exactly the mistake China and Italy did. Please, I beg you to learn from our errors.
  - coldtea 7y ago
    Well, let's just wait for a million dead like they expect in Italy then... that would be a proper, timid, reaction...
    - shadow28 7y ago
      You just pulled that number out of your ass, didn't you?
      - coldtea 7y ago
        Andrea Ricciardi, Professor of Hygiene and adviser to the Ministry of Health: "The most frightening point is the pitted figures on how much the virus can spread. the curves of the graphs elaborated by the epidemiologists and not only in Italy: according to the models, it could strike until 60% of the population, which means that according to the mortality rates there could be a million deaths only in Italy." Feel happy now about the ad-hominem?
        coldtea 7y ago
        Here's another, this time for the US: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/up-to-150-million-americans-are-expected-to-contract-the-coronavirus-congressional-doctor-says.html?fbclid=IwAR2nhJ-w4TcECk7-OWvrsbN65_MU4z533Hj_RkBpw60OCw3tT15VPujeJCk https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/up-to-150-million-americans-...
    - johnchristopher 7y ago
      That's a huge number. Where did you get it from ?
      - coldtea 7y ago
        See my answer to the parent comment.
    - hef19898 7y ago
      Please, stop throwing around totally fake numbers like that.
      - coldtea 7y ago
        Italy has a population of 60 million. The WHO reports "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died". If 50% the population gets infected, and if it's not 3.4% but "just" 3% mortality rate, that's already 1 million dead. And according to some experts, even 70% infection rate is predicted. Second, this 3.4% percentage of deceased patients, is at the early stages, with fewer patients and preventive measures (so that most patients that needed hospital treatment got it). A 10% or more of patients of COVID-19 will need hospital treatment and ICU. As the number of patients rise, there wont be as many ICU units (and doctors are getting infected themselves at an alarming rate). In Italy with ~ 7000 cases, "hospitals are scrambling to increase the number of beds available in intensive care units. Some have closed entire wards to dedicate them to severe coronavirus cases. Others have transformed operating rooms into intensive care units. Doctors are working grueling shifts to cover for colleagues who fall ill". Let's put it this way, they have 9,172 cases and 463 deaths. Now imagine with 100,000 or 1,000,000 cases -- still very far from the predicted 70%.
        hef19898 7y ago
        That's not how epidemics work. Even China was nowhere near these numbers. Stuff like that doesn't spread the way you assume it does. But ok, the source is your own calculations. Thanks for confirming.
        coldtea 7y ago
        >That's not how epidemics work. That's not how epidemics work when they are contained quickly. Europe has done a bad job at this. Epidemics in the past have killed many times as many as the percentages above.
        hef19898 7y ago
    - xen0 7y ago
      This is coming from 3.4% mortality rate from reported cases, but how many are not reported? How many people just suffer a mild cold, or are completely asymptomatic and never get reported? As an overall mortality rate, it is almost certainly too high.
  - shawabawa3 7y ago
    The only realistic way to stop the virus from looking at other countries responses is to overreact relative to what other countries have done
  - roenxi 7y ago
    We have months of data now. If the virus gets out of control; countries find that out because the hospital system gets overwhelmed and they have to bring in a hard quarantine. Countries have to overreact to the circumstances that they are confronted with because in a week the situation will be much worse if they don't. The only options are to overreact when everything seems fine or to overreact when the hospitals are full past capacity. The choices here are to overreact before the virus gets past the border; overreact when the first cases appear; overreact when the first cluster is identified or overreact when people who can't breath are being turned away from hospitals. We have yet to see what happens past that point because so far everyone has instituted a quarantine then. Germany is at the clusters developing stage.
    - RobertoG 7y ago
      I don't think you are using "overreact" properly. If it's the appropriate response, then, by definition, is not overreacting. In line with what you are saying, a problem, is that the proper reaction, if works, looks like an overreaction later. So, politically, there is an incentive to do nothing.
  - rambojazz 7y ago
    It does sound extremely over the top indeed, but it might be the only way to prevent the spreading. It appears that by the time you find the first case, you are too late as the virus has been spreading all over the place. Maybe quarantining everybody, even from area with zero cases, is too much... but at least people should make a strong effort to reduce social activities for a few months.
  - martin_bech 7y ago
    No, thats beeing responsible.
rglullis 7y ago
"Most turkeys in farms are super happy, healthy and fat until some days before Thanksgiving. Why should they act like they could be slaughtered?"
- hef19898 7y ago
  Because turkeys are always fat. Happy and healthy is a diiferent story. And they get slaughtered, becasue that is the reason the are at the farm in the first place. Using that analogy for a disease is jst plain wrong.
  - rglullis 7y ago
    Before this conversation goes any further, perhaps you should read The Black Swan? Or if you don't like my turkey reference, let's stay in the realm of technology. Pop quiz: who said "Only the paranoid survive?"
ximi 7y ago
Because it's only a matter of time before the virus will be in Berlin (if it's not already). Nobody is suggesting people should quarantine themselves in Berlin, but avoiding crowded spaces, not touching your face and frequently washing your hands doesn't seem at all unreasonable.
- rorykoehler 7y ago
  40 confirmed cases here.
ulfw 7y ago
Wow. And you magically know that how, exactly?
- hef19898 7y ago
  May have changed, but yesterday Berlin wasn't listed in the high risk regions that was shared by Bavarian health authorities. Didn't check today, so. EDIT: According to officials, one county in germany is considered high risk (link in German): https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Risikogebiete.html https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus...
  - rorykoehler 7y ago
    It's futile arguing that the risk is low because the officials classified it as such when I stated that I disagree with their risk assessment and management strategy. If I look at a risk matrix I would classify the risk impact of not quarantining as significant to disastrous and the likelihood as very likely. That puts the current situation in all of the world at the highest risk. Risk matrix example: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Kevin_Fleming3/publication/260010346/figure/fig1/AS:297248975015943@1447881086616/Example-of-how-different-scenarios-fit-within-a-risk-matrix-4.png https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Kevin_Fleming3/publicat...
    - hef19898 7y ago
      One last comment because you clearly seem to prefer to live in your own world. Assessing risk the way you do has one big issue (it actually has multiple but let's stick with one). When you put Corona in the disastrous category you habe to provide reasons for doing so, otherwise it is just a gut feeling. And by classifying it as disastrous, you run into issues when classifying stuff like Ebola for example. Over-classifying has that effect on measuring systems, that's why you need teams of experts from multiple disciplines to do it properly. And would have to do so at multiple sub levels for each criteria. The whole purpose is to take gut feeling and emotions out of the process. Doing it alone makes the whole exercise pointless. Now, take that whatever way you want.

luckylion 7y ago

That's Berlin for you though. I think you need to have a much higher threshold for disgust and fear to consider living there. I'm close to Hamburg. We've had two or three confirmed cases in the county. Patients are quarantined at home and stable. Schools have been temporarily closed, but reopened now. The administration is taking it very serious and people are stocking up on everything, including cake.