5 ms·

As a side observation: most reporting seems rather binary, i.e. you either die or survive, period. What interests me the most, however, is how often survival me

As a side observation: most reporting seems rather binary, i.e. you either die or survive, period. What interests me the most, however, is how often survival means full recovery, especially now that the nervous system comes up. Are there any long term effects? Should one generally expect to come out of it worse, the same, or stronger? I'm much less afraid to die from this than to end up with chronic respiratory and/or neurological issues.

Proziam 7y ago
EDIT - Just to be clear, I'm not saying that people shouldn't take precautions or that it's not worth protecting vulnerable groups. I'm simply suggesting that perhaps there is news coverage about other things (remember the whole Hong Kong situation that we aren't hearing about suddenly?) that might still deserve some air time. The media is profiting off this story big time. It's like when the plane went missing and a news station actually put some moron on the air who said there's technically a chance a black hole swallowed the plane. It's disgraceful, to be honest. That said, it looks like the rate of fatalities is overblown significantly [0](0.2% in a healthy population (COMPARED WITH THE 3.4% NUMBER BEING SPOUTED ALL OVER THE PLACE). I've yet to see coverage that is remotely reputable about long-term health effects after recovery. EDIT 2 - Case in point about premature statements being made. > [1]“I think it is likely we’ll see a global pandemic,” said Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year. What proportion of those will be symptomatic, I can’t give a good number.” followed by: > [2]"Because I am now less certain of where the R0 will end up (and how it may vary geographically) I am going to revise downward the range of outcomes I consider plausible to 20%-60% of adults infected. This involves subjectivity about what range of R0 may turn out to be true." [0] https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/analyses/first_adjusted_mortality_estimates_and_risk_assessment/2019-nCoV-preliminary_age_and_time_adjusted_mortality_rates_and_pandemic_risk_assessment.html https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/an... [1]https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-people-might-one-person-with-coronavirus-infect-11581676200?mod=rsswn https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-people-might-one-perso... [2]https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464 https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464
- tmaly 7y ago
  I would like to see more details about those affected, age, immuno compromised or not, asthma or not. Its hard to really draw any comparison to flu or anything else as things stand right now.
  - pbhjpbhj 7y ago
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... is quite good, WHO.int have publications on it if you want a more trusted source (but this one seems good to me).
    - jcadam 7y ago
      Hard to find numbers on asthma, specifically. I have mild persistent asthma, for example, which for me means if I take a daily (low) dose of an inhaled corticosteroid, I can generally go about my business like a normal person and almost never need to use my rescue inhaler. I've only seen stats for COVID-19 fatalities for people with "respiratory conditions." Which could be anything from mild asthma on up to stuff like emphysema and cystic fibrosis. I know, insufficient data.
- mobilefriendly 7y ago
  SARS, which is closely related to Covid-19, has caused chronic problems in some patients. Here's a reputable source on that from 2010: https://www.thestar.com/life/health_wellness/2010/09/02/sars_survivors_struggle_with_symptoms_years_later.html https://www.thestar.com/life/health_wellness/2010/09/02/sars...
  - Proziam 7y ago
    I appreciate the source. I'm still hopeful that the long-term effects of Covid-19 will turn out to be less dramatic than SARS but only time will tell I suppose.
- NhanH 7y ago
aqme28 7y ago
This is also something I'm curious about. SARS caused permanent lung damage in a large proportion of the survivors, sometimes to a debilitating extent. How common is that with nCov?
- rolph 7y ago
  it is very likely the same circumstance.both those virus conserve the same cell fusion machinery, to the end of causing the same effect. The host may be variable and there is a basis for the range of morbidities observed. the central problem with lung damage involves disruptions to the RAS system that will lead to accumulations of extracellular fibres in the lung tissue
T-A 7y ago
There's a "nice" damage report here: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/here-is-what-coronavirus-does-to-the-body/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/here-is-w... If it gets to the point of causing pneumonia, you may end up with permanent loss of lung tissue. If it spreads to the rest of the body, liver and kidney damage are also on the menu.
- thijsvandien 7y ago
  Well, careful what you wish for... :)
dobleboble 7y ago
It has only been around for a few months so nobody knows. It is also too early to know about reinfection. My advice would be to avoid getting infected if you can but please be mindful that a lot of people won't have the privilege of avoiding it, and they do not need to be unduly stressed from the prospect.
- rolltiide 7y ago
  By reinfection they must really be alluding to reanimation
aqme28 7y ago
There are patients that have been hospitalized in Wuhan for weeks or potentially months. Will they ever recover? Will that compound the already-critical lack of medical infrastructure?
solinent 7y ago
If you're below 50 your chances of dying after contracting the virus are similar to that of being in a car accident if you got in a car over the course of one year (I think a car accident is higher). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se... I'm not sure exactly how they evaluate risk, but they probably estimate the error based on populations where very few people are studied (probably most people below 50), so it's likely if you're below 50 the chances are actually lower, I'm not sure. Risk factors for immune disorders and car accidents are probably similar if I were to conjecture (just in: sick people tend to die), so most people on this subreddit will just get the fever. 15% of people don't even present with a fever, so it seems like the immune system can typically fight it off.
calyth2018 7y ago
There are reasons why Asian jurisdictions that ran into SARS previously is acting a lot more seriously. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome#Prognosis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr... There were plenty of them that still remember the residual effects of SARS, resulting in bone loss and other symptoms.

Proziam 7y ago

EDIT - Just to be clear, I'm not saying that people shouldn't take precautions or that it's not worth protecting vulnerable groups. I'm simply suggesting that perhaps there is news coverage about other things (remember the whole Hong Kong situation that we aren't hearing about suddenly?) that might still deserve some air time. The media is profiting off this story big time. It's like when the plane went missing and a news station actually put some moron on the air who said there's technically a chance a black hole swallowed the plane. It's disgraceful, to be honest. That said, it looks like the rate of fatalities is overblown significantly [0](0.2% in a healthy population (COMPARED WITH THE 3.4% NUMBER BEING SPOUTED ALL OVER THE PLACE). I've yet to see coverage that is remotely reputable about long-term health effects after recovery. EDIT 2 - Case in point about premature statements being made. > [1]“I think it is likely we’ll see a global pandemic,” said Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year. What proportion of those will be symptomatic, I can’t give a good number.” followed by: > [2]"Because I am now less certain of where the R0 will end up (and how it may vary geographically) I am going to revise downward the range of outcomes I consider plausible to 20%-60% of adults infected. This involves subjectivity about what range of R0 may turn out to be true." [0] https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/analyses/first_adjusted_mortality_estimates_and_risk_assessment/2019-nCoV-preliminary_age_and_time_adjusted_mortality_rates_and_pandemic_risk_assessment.html https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/an... [1]https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-people-might-one-person-with-coronavirus-infect-11581676200?mod=rsswn https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-people-might-one-perso... [2]https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464 https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464

tmaly 7y ago
I would like to see more details about those affected, age, immuno compromised or not, asthma or not. Its hard to really draw any comparison to flu or anything else as things stand right now.
- pbhjpbhj 7y ago
  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... is quite good, WHO.int have publications on it if you want a more trusted source (but this one seems good to me).
  - jcadam 7y ago
    Hard to find numbers on asthma, specifically. I have mild persistent asthma, for example, which for me means if I take a daily (low) dose of an inhaled corticosteroid, I can generally go about my business like a normal person and almost never need to use my rescue inhaler. I've only seen stats for COVID-19 fatalities for people with "respiratory conditions." Which could be anything from mild asthma on up to stuff like emphysema and cystic fibrosis. I know, insufficient data.
mobilefriendly 7y ago
SARS, which is closely related to Covid-19, has caused chronic problems in some patients. Here's a reputable source on that from 2010: https://www.thestar.com/life/health_wellness/2010/09/02/sars_survivors_struggle_with_symptoms_years_later.html https://www.thestar.com/life/health_wellness/2010/09/02/sars...
- Proziam 7y ago
  I appreciate the source. I'm still hopeful that the long-term effects of Covid-19 will turn out to be less dramatic than SARS but only time will tell I suppose.
NhanH 7y ago

aqme28 7y ago

This is also something I'm curious about. SARS caused permanent lung damage in a large proportion of the survivors, sometimes to a debilitating extent. How common is that with nCov?

rolph 7y ago
it is very likely the same circumstance.both those virus conserve the same cell fusion machinery, to the end of causing the same effect. The host may be variable and there is a basis for the range of morbidities observed. the central problem with lung damage involves disruptions to the RAS system that will lead to accumulations of extracellular fibres in the lung tissue

T-A 7y ago

There's a "nice" damage report here: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/here-is-what-coronavirus-does-to-the-body/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/here-is-w... If it gets to the point of causing pneumonia, you may end up with permanent loss of lung tissue. If it spreads to the rest of the body, liver and kidney damage are also on the menu.

thijsvandien 7y ago
Well, careful what you wish for... :)

dobleboble 7y ago

It has only been around for a few months so nobody knows. It is also too early to know about reinfection. My advice would be to avoid getting infected if you can but please be mindful that a lot of people won't have the privilege of avoiding it, and they do not need to be unduly stressed from the prospect.

rolltiide 7y ago
By reinfection they must really be alluding to reanimation

aqme28 7y ago

There are patients that have been hospitalized in Wuhan for weeks or potentially months. Will they ever recover? Will that compound the already-critical lack of medical infrastructure?

solinent 7y ago

If you're below 50 your chances of dying after contracting the virus are similar to that of being in a car accident if you got in a car over the course of one year (I think a car accident is higher). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se... I'm not sure exactly how they evaluate risk, but they probably estimate the error based on populations where very few people are studied (probably most people below 50), so it's likely if you're below 50 the chances are actually lower, I'm not sure. Risk factors for immune disorders and car accidents are probably similar if I were to conjecture (just in: sick people tend to die), so most people on this subreddit will just get the fever. 15% of people don't even present with a fever, so it seems like the immune system can typically fight it off.

calyth2018 7y ago

There are reasons why Asian jurisdictions that ran into SARS previously is acting a lot more seriously. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome#Prognosis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr... There were plenty of them that still remember the residual effects of SARS, resulting in bone loss and other symptoms.