4 ms·

> I see a low mortality rate 1-2% case fatality rate combined with the current R0 estimate is not low. If this pandemic goes unmitigated it will kill more peop

• joe_the_user 7y ago
  A 1-2% mortality rate is indeed a huge rate promising massive death. Essentially 20-40 times higher than the conventional flu. I think the GP is saying that mortality is significantly lower than it appears because the asymptomatic carriers aren't counted in that figure. That's one way these new pathogens can play out but I don't think there's necessary good evidence for this - the 2% figure seems pretty reliable everywhere. It's worth noting that causes of the Spanish Flu's mortality rates are still being debated: "Scientists offer several possible explanations for the high mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Some analyses have shown the virus to be particularly deadly because it triggers a cytokine storm, which ravages the stronger immune system of young adults.[14] In contrast, a 2007 analysis of medical journals from the period of the pandemic[15][16] found that the viral infection was no more aggressive than previous influenza strains. Instead, malnourishment, overcrowded medical camps and hospitals, and poor hygiene promoted bacterial superinfection. This superinfection killed most of the victims, typically after a somewhat prolonged death bed." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
  • michaelt 7y ago
    First time I've heard a large portion of asymptomatic carriers cited as a good thing.