8 ms·

Seeing the Smoke

122 points by ctoth 7y ago

SZJX 7y ago
I can't really take this piece seriously when it's claimed that the fatality rate is "20 times" that of seasonal flu... If the author claims to be "rational", surely he understands how many cases are not being detected and how the numbers from South Korea and Diamond Princess approach the real fatality rate much more. It's always like this. People first underreact and want to believe it's nothing, then overreact. For now (2 weeks after the article was written), staying levelheaded amidst the irrational panic is the "rational" thing to do. Exactly the reverse of what's proposed in the article.
ctoth 7y ago
I really hope this gets traction this time. A very worthwhile article for the people here.
- pbourke 7y ago
  Yeah I agree. It seems like many people have picked up on it. Much different than even a week ago.
newshorts 7y ago
I’m not seeing smoke either, but I still went out and bought my family a two weeks supply of food. I felt silly. But my justification was that it’s more convenient for me to do my shopping a few weeks ago, than in a month when it’s much more likely we won’t feel as comfortable around large groups of people.
- rndmize 7y ago
  I don't think there's any reason to feel silly. I grew up with parents that would take reasonable preparations for a variety of possible disasters - earthquakes and fires being the two of note for California. Cans of fish and fruit will last decades and can be cycled out over time, dried pasta will last years. Jars of sauce or preserves have similar lifespans, crackers can last months, dry grains as well. I don't think it's difficult to imagine situations in a lot of places where natural disasters can disable things for several days, maybe a week or two. A couple weeks of food seems like a good thing to have on hand, regardless of place, time or situation.
  - xyzzyz 7y ago
    Indeed. Just buy stuff that you'll go through anyway, but more of it. Instead of buying 2 pounds of rice, buy 25. You can store it pretty much indefinitely (white rice at least), and so even if you don't normally eat lots of rice, you'll eat it eventually and won't see it spoil. Same with oil, pasta, flour, nuts etc.
hprotagonist 7y ago
I have laid in about a 3-week supply of nonperishable goods and basic home supplies, and I don't feel bad about this at all. If the worst that happens is that we don't have to go shopping much for the rest of Lent -- great. I'll be pretty surprised, but i'll be fucking overjoyed, too.
b_emery 7y ago
Definitely prepare, I mean there is not really a down side to it, but my instinct is to cut through the hype and look at the data. The site this article links to is good: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Error bars on this would be even better, but note that the growth in cases is still linear, about 3000 new cases per day. It will be interesting to follow how this changes, with more testing in the US for example, but based on this one thing it looks to me like we'll make it to summer without it taking over the world. If you have better data or analysis, I'd like to see it. [edit]: found the curve that shows new cases outside of China, and it's indeed NOT linear: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-tot-outchina https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/...
- YZF 7y ago
  But China shows us you can't just extrapolate the exponential curve. As cases grow there will be a response and China shows us (if you trust the numbers) the response makes a big difference. There may be a short term exponential growth but with contact tracing and various quarantine measures that curve may decay (e.g. many of the contacts may catch the virus, their families might, but the following transmission could be reduced). I actually stocked up (we always have lots of bulk dry foods anyways) so I can stay home if needed but there's really no clear picture of what's going on. If there is widespread transmission coming from asymptomatic people that would mean this is a lot less dangerous than people think, maybe all these people coughing in the office actually have covid19... If there isn't than why worry yet. There is some evidence that suggests this doesn't transmit very well (e.g. many people quarantined through close contact tracing did not catch the virus) yet there is some contradictory evidence (e.g. the cruise ship or larger clusters.). The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. If you live in an urban area with millions of people what would be a reasonable threshold of cases to isolate yourself completely? My feel is that it's worthwhile being cautions and also assuming the actual numbers are ahead of the curve we see. As long as the projected numbers are still small relative to the overall population then washing your hands, being careful what you touch (your face and shared surfaces), and reducing unnecessary close contacts with random people are likely good enough safety measures. As the numbers grow you can consider completely eliminating contact with others though that can be pretty difficult.
war1025 7y ago
Something I had been thinking about, which the article mentioned and pushed me over the edge into doing: I just went on Amazon and ordered two blood oxygen saturation meters. One for adults and one for kids. Even if Covid-19 never ends up reaching us, that is a valuable diagnostic tool to have available. Especially for $30 a piece.
- sosilkj 7y ago
  can anyone recommend an alternative to amazon for such a device? i don't want to take the chance of buying one that's a fake...
  - rak00n 7y ago
    There are few that are sold by amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01HSAG8BE https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01HSAG8BE
    - Forge36 7y ago
      I have no idea how to vet Amazon reviews. Thousands of reviews, very critical negatives about the inaccuracy of the device. I'm tempted (same maker has one for $11) but I don't know how I'd verify the accuracy
  - pbourke 7y ago
    Most big chain drugstores sell a house brand pulse oximeter
  - timcederman 7y ago
    Two bits of advice: 1. I checked out all the cheap ones, and Zacurate was the only brand I could find that was under $50 and had actually been properly tested for accuracy. 2. If you buy one from Amazon ("ships from and sold by Amazon.com") or that specific brand from "Beyond Med Shop" (which is owned by Zacurate), you won't get a counterfeit.
    - masonic 7y ago
double0jimb0 7y ago
Will someone please explain why stocking up on water is consistently being advised? Do these people think coronavirus is going to cause enough unrest to destabilize civic services and affect our municipal water supplies? Or do these people just parrot this stuff without critical review?
- zamalek 7y ago
  It's less to do with crazy unlikely scenarios, and more to do with the fact that you die without water in days.
- neilv 7y ago
  That article is relatively sensible, and it also mentions why the writer advocates storing some water, or at least getting a filter, even though they suspect water service will continue to operate. Here's one hypothetical scenario that might be intuitive, not from the article... Say, you live in a dense part of the city, and there's suddenly a lot of confirmed cases around you, so your family decides to stay home for a week, to wait&see how this plays out and what government help arrives. All your city utilities work, but much of the city water utility workers can't afford to live in the city, or otherwise have to stay home, and the remaining workers can't keep up with the ordinary day-to-day level of repairs and maintenance. A pipe fractures, brown water comes out your faucet, and now you have to decide whether to venture out to try to find a store open that has bottled water, and possibly bring the virus back to your family, or stay in and hope water will be fixed and known-safe within 3 days. Ordinary bottle water is $1-$2 a gallon, off-the-shelf from the local store, and some insurance and peace of mind against a very bad and not-too-unlikely situation.
  - aaomidi 7y ago
    Or just boil it at home.
    - neilv 7y ago
      If your water is coming out brown, like in the example, boiling is likely insufficient. (You really don't want to gamble with needing a doctor/ER at that time.) It also assumes you have a means to boil water. A filter might help in addition to boiling and/or drops, and a filter is one option the article suggests as options for water. I think we'd do a disservice to people by discouraging them from having a modest backup plan for water during a possible pandemic quarantine. Remember the rough "3" rule: 3 minutes without air, 3 days without water, 3 weeks without food.
usaar333 7y ago
Great overall summary of what happened though somewhat misses what hit the market ultimately hard- and doesn't necessarily prove that if you were rational about the risks, you should have sold short [1]. The market tanked fast (a sign of efficiency in fact) when it became clear that containment within China had completely failed. Cases were dwindling (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/), due to China's strong protection measures, but all of a sudden there was an upswing due to international spread. It's interesting to read Ray Dalio's analysis on this whole thing: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/our-early-thinking-coronavirus-pandemics-ray-dalio/ https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/our-early-thinking-coronaviru... Finally, note that personal protection is different from stock market protection. It's more likely than not the SP500 will fall another 7% to 2750, but that doesn't mean shorting is a profitable strategy. [1] Maybe buy protective puts (perhaps volatility was far too low), but that's another story.
rustyconover 7y ago
Tonight after purchasing more groceries than I've bought in the last decade, I'm reflecting on how strange it felt. I've never filled a shopping cart. A grocery basket, sure, but an entire cart with the bottom shelf filled with bottled water, never. I lived through Hurricane Sandy in NYC. That was something. But I never felt the urge to go preemptively shopping before. Food has always been in abundance and regularly available a few blocks away 24/7. Shoutout to Westside Market in the UWS. Yesterday I became convinced I needed almost a months supply of non-perishables _right now_. Tonight, there was no other customers shopping with urgency at my local Target as I was buying six spare toothbrushes with two bottles of NyQuil and two cans of saline nasal spray along with all of the food I could fit. All of the aisles were well stocked, mostly. They were less so once I went by. There was one lady with 7 cans of lysol spray, but we just winked at each other and hurried off. I think both of us were trying to not get any more shocked glances from the people just strolling trying decide which flavor of double stuffed Oreo's to buy this Saturday night. Deep down those people know what's going on, but aren't yet ready to take action. Sure, I'm early and feel guilty because it was so easy to get everything right now. But also feels really good to have it stocked away in my pantry. If I don't use these supplies my local food bank will get everything I don't need. I'd like to ask of you to consider doing the same! If all of this preparation is unnecessary, there are hungry people that will appreciate it later on. If the possibility to make something good come out of this possibly tragically bad situation motivates you take some time to get ready, I'm pleased.
- aorth 7y ago
  Why the NyQuil?
  - gremlinsinc 7y ago
    It's a cold virus derivative right? ... gotta treat the sniffles...if it hits.
nostromo 7y ago
I'm not seeing smoke. I see a low mortality rate for healthy people. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se... I see stories about how the virus is circulating because most people have no symptoms, and don't even go to the hospital. https://www.thelocal.it/20200228/coronavirus-may-have-circulated-unnoticed-for-weeks-in-italy-say-researchers https://www.thelocal.it/20200228/coronavirus-may-have-circul... The only firsthand account I've read makes it sound like a cold. "If I were at home with similar symptoms, I probably would have gone to work as usual." https://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=12312836 https://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466... Yes, wash your hands. Yes, don't go to work with a cold. Yes, older and sick people may want to self-quarantine. Sure, buy some extra food. No, don't spread panic.
- 0x8BADF00D 7y ago
  Anecdotally, I've noticed vastly different information depending on which filter bubble my account is placed in. For example, on my Twitter handle associated with my real name (no posting, simply retweets and likes), I see overwhelming "panic mode" posts and news regarding COVID-19. On the other hand, my other Twitter handle has the exact opposite news regarding COVID-19.
- rustyconover 7y ago
  I'm seeing smoke in the suppositions you're making so I'd like to help you. The point estimates for mortality rate, R0 and the like all are subject to interpretation/manipulation. The health agencies have allegedly been subject to regulatory capture both in China and in the USA. 1. The communication of the CDC has changed markedly since the appointment of Pence to the head of the coordinating council. The messaging appears to be more controlled and filtered. 2. The frequent changing of the definition of what a "confirmed case" is in China leads me to completely disregard any published numbers much like other economic metrics published by China. 3. The restrictive testing conditions of the CDC likely has led to multiple cases not yet being discovered in the USA. As a scientist I'd like to see independently reproduced results across other independent population samples. I think it is healthy to take a more Bayesian approach to these statistics, because you should let your beliefs be updated by additional data and factor in your prior assumptions. Citing data from a single study from a Chinese health agency just isn't enough for me to change my beliefs completely, my prior knowledge is too strong when combined with everything else circulating in the political/regulatory sphere. My personal distributions for what the values of mortality and R0 are both still have really fat long tails. But of course that's subject to change.
anonsivalley652 7y ago
This pathogen has a long incubation period and it takes time for small numbers of people to become spreaders, so there will be a time lag between recognition and acceleration. Threat fatigue and lack of experiencing long-tail events can lull people into complacency. I've been in the Loma Prieta, Camp Fire, week-long PSPS, near hurricanes and the Boy Scouts... be reasonably-prepared but don't go crazy buying a BSL-4 universal decontamination shower kit. Panic buying helps no one. The biggest point is if it accelerates to pandemic is for the elderly, especially men and those with chronic conditions, to be protected from anyone who could possibly have it. For them, the CFR is somewhere 15-35%. For anyone who needs hospitalization, the CFR is about 49%. Occasionally and randomly, healthy people die from it too at very low rates.
- nostromo 7y ago
  > especially men It seems this is unique to China as men are much more likely to smoke there.
ryanobjc 7y ago
I had my urgent prepper moment last Monday. I realized that the chances of doing stock up prior to panic and price and crowded places was shrinking and I didn’t know how fast. I got spooked when a target seemed to be out of a lot of things. Turned out to be luck. I then spent Thursday securing a methodology for water storage just in case. I don’t expect to lose water for a while but earthquake country. It’s a lingering missing hole I’ve felt for a while. The rest of my prepper is ironically due to burning man. So we are pretty good there. The window for buying before a panic is closing fast. In terms of face masks it’s already closed. I managed to eek out one more mask this last week by buying a half mask 3m reusable respirator. And P100 organic vapor cartridges. Very over the top for covid-19, but will have dual purpose for paint fumes later. Plus no competition and the prices and delivery were timely. Soon widespread fear will turn into action and you want to be sitting at home watching YouTube videos.
- HeyLaughingBoy 7y ago
  If you're having trouble finding stuff my recommendation is to head to a Walmart in a rural area. Walmart has amazing logistics and handles emergencies well: they are rarely out of anything for more than a day or two. Rural areas are pretty low-density and would have a much lower disease propagation rate. Of course, that's easy for me to say since I live out in the country, 10 miles from a Walmart :-)
ggm 7y ago
Can anyone explain to me a rational upside for the Chinese state to over-report detected cases and under-report mortality? Bear in mind, the impact on the domestic economy of failing to reign in an epidemic is as real as the upside of claiming it's fixed to settle export income. Basically it's not in any states interest, one party or otherwise. China's domestic economy depends on people getting better. I truly don't get the assumption "it's worse than they say" when the most likely outcome (putting Hanlons razor into play), is that mortality stats are nearly accurate and caseload is under reported due to lack of testing and self isolation. Death is hard to hide. I believe mortality stats. Any non reported mortality goes to under reported cases, so it evens out. I know it's optimistic thinking but I am drawn to a belief the effective cumulative death rate in China only drops, as better figures emerge unless unlike all other virus it becomes more lethal not less under mutation. A different comorbidity outcome eg opportunitistic pneumonia or delayed onset COPD or something, that's different. That would demand a massive change in view. Change in the long-term disease consequence will be interesting and important. (For instance the effect some disease has on vaccine immunity across the board comes to mind: if this happens, bad news: but, that is in the future) Well adapted virus mutate not to kill their hosts. Badly adapted virus self limit. This is not about liking or disliking the Chinese state, I am asking on what grounds people walk to 'under reports of death, over reports of caseload' No other claim alters mortality into worse places. Non Chinese deaths predominantly lie in old, lower immunity, comorbidity sick people. And, saying "it's too soon, wait for the wave" is forward facing speculation. Cumulative infection and death rates are inherently backward looking. Explain to me how these a posterior figures get worse not better. TL;dr it's not smoke, this article is mis applied stupid maths. Keeping people on a ship (think norovirus and cruises) or having a religious cult uncover huge transmission outcome.. that's not a true reflection of societal risk under self isolation in the home. I am told the CDC insisted on a home made test. NIH as in "not invented here" and not national institute of health.. bad move guys. Under testing in a US health system with patient cost recovery. That is a recipe for less successful disease control. The US is going to turn out to be under reported. Death rates will probably be right because dying in America is statistically well understood. People won't front for expensive medical test or treatment. High rates of COPD and diabetes and therefore higher risk of death than many other economies. Also large numbers of underinsured older people.
mrmonkeyman 7y ago
Dudes. Flu kills thousands in the (tiny) Netherlands alone. Corona is not making a dent, whatever way you look at it.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

122 points by ctoth 7y ago

SZJX 7y ago

I can't really take this piece seriously when it's claimed that the fatality rate is "20 times" that of seasonal flu... If the author claims to be "rational", surely he understands how many cases are not being detected and how the numbers from South Korea and Diamond Princess approach the real fatality rate much more. It's always like this. People first underreact and want to believe it's nothing, then overreact. For now (2 weeks after the article was written), staying levelheaded amidst the irrational panic is the "rational" thing to do. Exactly the reverse of what's proposed in the article.

ctoth 7y ago

I really hope this gets traction this time. A very worthwhile article for the people here.

pbourke 7y ago
Yeah I agree. It seems like many people have picked up on it. Much different than even a week ago.

newshorts 7y ago

I’m not seeing smoke either, but I still went out and bought my family a two weeks supply of food. I felt silly. But my justification was that it’s more convenient for me to do my shopping a few weeks ago, than in a month when it’s much more likely we won’t feel as comfortable around large groups of people.

rndmize 7y ago
I don't think there's any reason to feel silly. I grew up with parents that would take reasonable preparations for a variety of possible disasters - earthquakes and fires being the two of note for California. Cans of fish and fruit will last decades and can be cycled out over time, dried pasta will last years. Jars of sauce or preserves have similar lifespans, crackers can last months, dry grains as well. I don't think it's difficult to imagine situations in a lot of places where natural disasters can disable things for several days, maybe a week or two. A couple weeks of food seems like a good thing to have on hand, regardless of place, time or situation.
- xyzzyz 7y ago
  Indeed. Just buy stuff that you'll go through anyway, but more of it. Instead of buying 2 pounds of rice, buy 25. You can store it pretty much indefinitely (white rice at least), and so even if you don't normally eat lots of rice, you'll eat it eventually and won't see it spoil. Same with oil, pasta, flour, nuts etc.

hprotagonist 7y ago

I have laid in about a 3-week supply of nonperishable goods and basic home supplies, and I don't feel bad about this at all. If the worst that happens is that we don't have to go shopping much for the rest of Lent -- great. I'll be pretty surprised, but i'll be fucking overjoyed, too.

b_emery 7y ago

Definitely prepare, I mean there is not really a down side to it, but my instinct is to cut through the hype and look at the data. The site this article links to is good: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Error bars on this would be even better, but note that the growth in cases is still linear, about 3000 new cases per day. It will be interesting to follow how this changes, with more testing in the US for example, but based on this one thing it looks to me like we'll make it to summer without it taking over the world. If you have better data or analysis, I'd like to see it. [edit]: found the curve that shows new cases outside of China, and it's indeed NOT linear: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-tot-outchina https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/...

YZF 7y ago
But China shows us you can't just extrapolate the exponential curve. As cases grow there will be a response and China shows us (if you trust the numbers) the response makes a big difference. There may be a short term exponential growth but with contact tracing and various quarantine measures that curve may decay (e.g. many of the contacts may catch the virus, their families might, but the following transmission could be reduced). I actually stocked up (we always have lots of bulk dry foods anyways) so I can stay home if needed but there's really no clear picture of what's going on. If there is widespread transmission coming from asymptomatic people that would mean this is a lot less dangerous than people think, maybe all these people coughing in the office actually have covid19... If there isn't than why worry yet. There is some evidence that suggests this doesn't transmit very well (e.g. many people quarantined through close contact tracing did not catch the virus) yet there is some contradictory evidence (e.g. the cruise ship or larger clusters.). The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. If you live in an urban area with millions of people what would be a reasonable threshold of cases to isolate yourself completely? My feel is that it's worthwhile being cautions and also assuming the actual numbers are ahead of the curve we see. As long as the projected numbers are still small relative to the overall population then washing your hands, being careful what you touch (your face and shared surfaces), and reducing unnecessary close contacts with random people are likely good enough safety measures. As the numbers grow you can consider completely eliminating contact with others though that can be pretty difficult.

war1025 7y ago

Something I had been thinking about, which the article mentioned and pushed me over the edge into doing: I just went on Amazon and ordered two blood oxygen saturation meters. One for adults and one for kids. Even if Covid-19 never ends up reaching us, that is a valuable diagnostic tool to have available. Especially for $30 a piece.

sosilkj 7y ago
can anyone recommend an alternative to amazon for such a device? i don't want to take the chance of buying one that's a fake...
- rak00n 7y ago
  There are few that are sold by amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01HSAG8BE https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01HSAG8BE
  - Forge36 7y ago
    I have no idea how to vet Amazon reviews. Thousands of reviews, very critical negatives about the inaccuracy of the device. I'm tempted (same maker has one for $11) but I don't know how I'd verify the accuracy
- pbourke 7y ago
  Most big chain drugstores sell a house brand pulse oximeter
- timcederman 7y ago
  Two bits of advice: 1. I checked out all the cheap ones, and Zacurate was the only brand I could find that was under $50 and had actually been properly tested for accuracy. 2. If you buy one from Amazon ("ships from and sold by Amazon.com") or that specific brand from "Beyond Med Shop" (which is owned by Zacurate), you won't get a counterfeit.
  - masonic 7y ago

double0jimb0 7y ago

Will someone please explain why stocking up on water is consistently being advised? Do these people think coronavirus is going to cause enough unrest to destabilize civic services and affect our municipal water supplies? Or do these people just parrot this stuff without critical review?

zamalek 7y ago
It's less to do with crazy unlikely scenarios, and more to do with the fact that you die without water in days.
neilv 7y ago
That article is relatively sensible, and it also mentions why the writer advocates storing some water, or at least getting a filter, even though they suspect water service will continue to operate. Here's one hypothetical scenario that might be intuitive, not from the article... Say, you live in a dense part of the city, and there's suddenly a lot of confirmed cases around you, so your family decides to stay home for a week, to wait&see how this plays out and what government help arrives. All your city utilities work, but much of the city water utility workers can't afford to live in the city, or otherwise have to stay home, and the remaining workers can't keep up with the ordinary day-to-day level of repairs and maintenance. A pipe fractures, brown water comes out your faucet, and now you have to decide whether to venture out to try to find a store open that has bottled water, and possibly bring the virus back to your family, or stay in and hope water will be fixed and known-safe within 3 days. Ordinary bottle water is $1-$2 a gallon, off-the-shelf from the local store, and some insurance and peace of mind against a very bad and not-too-unlikely situation.
- aaomidi 7y ago
  Or just boil it at home.
  - neilv 7y ago
    If your water is coming out brown, like in the example, boiling is likely insufficient. (You really don't want to gamble with needing a doctor/ER at that time.) It also assumes you have a means to boil water. A filter might help in addition to boiling and/or drops, and a filter is one option the article suggests as options for water. I think we'd do a disservice to people by discouraging them from having a modest backup plan for water during a possible pandemic quarantine. Remember the rough "3" rule: 3 minutes without air, 3 days without water, 3 weeks without food.

usaar333 7y ago

Great overall summary of what happened though somewhat misses what hit the market ultimately hard- and doesn't necessarily prove that if you were rational about the risks, you should have sold short [1]. The market tanked fast (a sign of efficiency in fact) when it became clear that containment within China had completely failed. Cases were dwindling (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/), due to China's strong protection measures, but all of a sudden there was an upswing due to international spread. It's interesting to read Ray Dalio's analysis on this whole thing: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/our-early-thinking-coronavirus-pandemics-ray-dalio/ https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/our-early-thinking-coronaviru... Finally, note that personal protection is different from stock market protection. It's more likely than not the SP500 will fall another 7% to 2750, but that doesn't mean shorting is a profitable strategy. [1] Maybe buy protective puts (perhaps volatility was far too low), but that's another story.

rustyconover 7y ago

Tonight after purchasing more groceries than I've bought in the last decade, I'm reflecting on how strange it felt. I've never filled a shopping cart. A grocery basket, sure, but an entire cart with the bottom shelf filled with bottled water, never. I lived through Hurricane Sandy in NYC. That was something. But I never felt the urge to go preemptively shopping before. Food has always been in abundance and regularly available a few blocks away 24/7. Shoutout to Westside Market in the UWS. Yesterday I became convinced I needed almost a months supply of non-perishables _right now_. Tonight, there was no other customers shopping with urgency at my local Target as I was buying six spare toothbrushes with two bottles of NyQuil and two cans of saline nasal spray along with all of the food I could fit. All of the aisles were well stocked, mostly. They were less so once I went by. There was one lady with 7 cans of lysol spray, but we just winked at each other and hurried off. I think both of us were trying to not get any more shocked glances from the people just strolling trying decide which flavor of double stuffed Oreo's to buy this Saturday night. Deep down those people know what's going on, but aren't yet ready to take action. Sure, I'm early and feel guilty because it was so easy to get everything right now. But also feels really good to have it stocked away in my pantry. If I don't use these supplies my local food bank will get everything I don't need. I'd like to ask of you to consider doing the same! If all of this preparation is unnecessary, there are hungry people that will appreciate it later on. If the possibility to make something good come out of this possibly tragically bad situation motivates you take some time to get ready, I'm pleased.

aorth 7y ago
Why the NyQuil?
- gremlinsinc 7y ago
  It's a cold virus derivative right? ... gotta treat the sniffles...if it hits.

nostromo 7y ago

I'm not seeing smoke. I see a low mortality rate for healthy people. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se... I see stories about how the virus is circulating because most people have no symptoms, and don't even go to the hospital. https://www.thelocal.it/20200228/coronavirus-may-have-circulated-unnoticed-for-weeks-in-italy-say-researchers https://www.thelocal.it/20200228/coronavirus-may-have-circul... The only firsthand account I've read makes it sound like a cold. "If I were at home with similar symptoms, I probably would have gone to work as usual." https://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=12312836 https://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466... Yes, wash your hands. Yes, don't go to work with a cold. Yes, older and sick people may want to self-quarantine. Sure, buy some extra food. No, don't spread panic.

0x8BADF00D 7y ago
Anecdotally, I've noticed vastly different information depending on which filter bubble my account is placed in. For example, on my Twitter handle associated with my real name (no posting, simply retweets and likes), I see overwhelming "panic mode" posts and news regarding COVID-19. On the other hand, my other Twitter handle has the exact opposite news regarding COVID-19.
rustyconover 7y ago
I'm seeing smoke in the suppositions you're making so I'd like to help you. The point estimates for mortality rate, R0 and the like all are subject to interpretation/manipulation. The health agencies have allegedly been subject to regulatory capture both in China and in the USA. 1. The communication of the CDC has changed markedly since the appointment of Pence to the head of the coordinating council. The messaging appears to be more controlled and filtered. 2. The frequent changing of the definition of what a "confirmed case" is in China leads me to completely disregard any published numbers much like other economic metrics published by China. 3. The restrictive testing conditions of the CDC likely has led to multiple cases not yet being discovered in the USA. As a scientist I'd like to see independently reproduced results across other independent population samples. I think it is healthy to take a more Bayesian approach to these statistics, because you should let your beliefs be updated by additional data and factor in your prior assumptions. Citing data from a single study from a Chinese health agency just isn't enough for me to change my beliefs completely, my prior knowledge is too strong when combined with everything else circulating in the political/regulatory sphere. My personal distributions for what the values of mortality and R0 are both still have really fat long tails. But of course that's subject to change.

anonsivalley652 7y ago

This pathogen has a long incubation period and it takes time for small numbers of people to become spreaders, so there will be a time lag between recognition and acceleration. Threat fatigue and lack of experiencing long-tail events can lull people into complacency. I've been in the Loma Prieta, Camp Fire, week-long PSPS, near hurricanes and the Boy Scouts... be reasonably-prepared but don't go crazy buying a BSL-4 universal decontamination shower kit. Panic buying helps no one. The biggest point is if it accelerates to pandemic is for the elderly, especially men and those with chronic conditions, to be protected from anyone who could possibly have it. For them, the CFR is somewhere 15-35%. For anyone who needs hospitalization, the CFR is about 49%. Occasionally and randomly, healthy people die from it too at very low rates.

nostromo 7y ago
> especially men It seems this is unique to China as men are much more likely to smoke there.

ryanobjc 7y ago

I had my urgent prepper moment last Monday. I realized that the chances of doing stock up prior to panic and price and crowded places was shrinking and I didn’t know how fast. I got spooked when a target seemed to be out of a lot of things. Turned out to be luck. I then spent Thursday securing a methodology for water storage just in case. I don’t expect to lose water for a while but earthquake country. It’s a lingering missing hole I’ve felt for a while. The rest of my prepper is ironically due to burning man. So we are pretty good there. The window for buying before a panic is closing fast. In terms of face masks it’s already closed. I managed to eek out one more mask this last week by buying a half mask 3m reusable respirator. And P100 organic vapor cartridges. Very over the top for covid-19, but will have dual purpose for paint fumes later. Plus no competition and the prices and delivery were timely. Soon widespread fear will turn into action and you want to be sitting at home watching YouTube videos.

HeyLaughingBoy 7y ago
If you're having trouble finding stuff my recommendation is to head to a Walmart in a rural area. Walmart has amazing logistics and handles emergencies well: they are rarely out of anything for more than a day or two. Rural areas are pretty low-density and would have a much lower disease propagation rate. Of course, that's easy for me to say since I live out in the country, 10 miles from a Walmart :-)

ggm 7y ago

Can anyone explain to me a rational upside for the Chinese state to over-report detected cases and under-report mortality? Bear in mind, the impact on the domestic economy of failing to reign in an epidemic is as real as the upside of claiming it's fixed to settle export income. Basically it's not in any states interest, one party or otherwise. China's domestic economy depends on people getting better. I truly don't get the assumption "it's worse than they say" when the most likely outcome (putting Hanlons razor into play), is that mortality stats are nearly accurate and caseload is under reported due to lack of testing and self isolation. Death is hard to hide. I believe mortality stats. Any non reported mortality goes to under reported cases, so it evens out. I know it's optimistic thinking but I am drawn to a belief the effective cumulative death rate in China only drops, as better figures emerge unless unlike all other virus it becomes more lethal not less under mutation. A different comorbidity outcome eg opportunitistic pneumonia or delayed onset COPD or something, that's different. That would demand a massive change in view. Change in the long-term disease consequence will be interesting and important. (For instance the effect some disease has on vaccine immunity across the board comes to mind: if this happens, bad news: but, that is in the future) Well adapted virus mutate not to kill their hosts. Badly adapted virus self limit. This is not about liking or disliking the Chinese state, I am asking on what grounds people walk to 'under reports of death, over reports of caseload' No other claim alters mortality into worse places. Non Chinese deaths predominantly lie in old, lower immunity, comorbidity sick people. And, saying "it's too soon, wait for the wave" is forward facing speculation. Cumulative infection and death rates are inherently backward looking. Explain to me how these a posterior figures get worse not better. TL;dr it's not smoke, this article is mis applied stupid maths. Keeping people on a ship (think norovirus and cruises) or having a religious cult uncover huge transmission outcome.. that's not a true reflection of societal risk under self isolation in the home. I am told the CDC insisted on a home made test. NIH as in "not invented here" and not national institute of health.. bad move guys. Under testing in a US health system with patient cost recovery. That is a recipe for less successful disease control. The US is going to turn out to be under reported. Death rates will probably be right because dying in America is statistically well understood. People won't front for expensive medical test or treatment. High rates of COPD and diabetes and therefore higher risk of death than many other economies. Also large numbers of underinsured older people.

mrmonkeyman 7y ago

Dudes. Flu kills thousands in the (tiny) Netherlands alone. Corona is not making a dent, whatever way you look at it.

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