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We’re Not Ready for the Next Epidemic (2015)
- scarmig 7y agoAnd "How to respond to COVID-19": https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/How-to-respond-to-COVID-19 https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/How-to-respond-to-COVID-19
- bamboozled 7y ago"In any crisis, leaders have two equally important responsibilities: solve the immediate problem and keep it from happening again. " First line here got me. In the past, I think this is what was expected of leaders; However, in 2020? It feels like the definition needs to be updated. I'm not so sure what people expect of leaders these days. I remember what was expected of leaders, now look at the type of leaders that are getting elected and see if that first sentence makes sense. Maybe in 2020, leaders are supposed to just tell you what you want to hear. I'd even argue that it's poor leadership that got us here in the first place. Yes there is a virus, yes it is spreading, could it have been handled better? Most likely.
- CobrastanJorji 7y agoI agree with your sentiment on what leaders should be, but I suspect your glorious rosy past of yesteryear does not exist. Terrible leaders focused mostly on staying in power have been a thing since the days of bread and circuses.
- bamboozled 7y agoI guess you're right in saying that I probably only based my expectations on the defintition as written in the dictionary: a person or thing that leads. I actually wonder if the reason we have so many issues with leadership is because the definitions of a leader or leadership are out of step with reality. We're basically tricked by the word and it's meaning.
- joe_the_user 7y agoWell, I don't think those responsibilities are necessarily equal. So situations are so dire immediate action is the priority and some situations are mild enough that they are more like calls to future action. That said, I'd agree that US leadership, in general, seems to have an attitude of total irresponsibility for anything. I think that extreme income and power inequalities are to blame - ruling class doesn't care, they don't have to.
- pstuart 7y agoUS leadership may have inertia but are significantly impacted by the administration leading it. The current one is actively calling the whole thing a hoax and blaming it on its political enemies, as per most recent news reports.
- pstuart 7y agoHmmm, all I did was state facts germane to the conversation. It's a pity that we can't discuss uncomfortable truths without getting tribal about it. Political discourse has reached an apex of toxicity and that will only worsen if we can't find some way to seek shared goals in a respectful manner. I'm worried that it may be too late to achieve this but one must always remember the words of Commander Peter Quincy Taggart: "Never give up, never surrender!"
- mrmonkeyman 7y agoI expect government to work as mandated. I don't need "leaders". I need them all to do their jobs as best they can. Nothing more, nothing less. "Leaders" play sports or run businesses. The rest is medieval bullshit.
- onetimemanytime 7y agoLeaders are one thing but the state machine is/should be running all the time in the background. Trump, for example, might make a call (quarantine x county or state for example) but presumable CDC /Pentagon /FEMA etc already have plans and supplies in place.
- pbourke 7y agoThe Obama administration did a number of things right in response to the Ebola epidemic. They quickly ramped up US capacity to treat Ebola patients, delivered substantial resources (people and money) to affected countries, established a presence on the ground in numerous countries specifically for pandemic readiness and staffed a position on the NSC for interagency pandemic readiness. The Trump administration cut that position from the NSC and substantially scaled back the presence in other countries. So, there has been leadership in this area (and others) in the past.
- drenginian 7y ago“In any crisis, leaders have two equally important responsibilities: deflect responsibility and hold on to power.”
- sputr 7y agoCould not have said it better myself. Leaders will only do other things if they help the two drenginian pointed out.
- paulryanrogers 7y agoTechnically that may be true. But if one must deflect responsibility or go to extremes to hold power then it's likely they are not the ones who should be in power to do the other things. EDIT: meat to say "may be true" not "is true"
- Razengan 7y agoThroughout human history the primary role of leaders has been to convince their subjects that all their problems are because of some other tribe. That continues to be the case.
- tc313 7y ago(2015)
- orkohunter 7y agoPlease edit and add [2015]
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- sombremesa 7y agoThis is far too optimistic. Where is the hard data that a vaccine could (even in a completely sunshine and rainbows scenario) be "ready" as early as June? The best I've been able to estimate is 18 months. This includes manufacturing and supply of course - a vaccine is useless if you can't get it to people at reasonable cost.
- torgian 7y agoVaccines have already been developed, but testing can take months.
- rodneyg_ 7y agoI see what you’re saying. I can see speed being a factor... and maybe I’m uninformed... but I’m 99% sure in a true pandemic cost will not be a factor.
- chrisco255 7y agoYeah Congress has already earmarked billions for this virus.
- jakeinspace 7y agoWell, a high cost implies some shortage in production vs demand. The government can buy all the vaccine available and distribute it for for, but if there's a shortage in production due to chemical supply chain difficulties then there's no magic bullet.
- thephyber 7y agoTrump was in a press conference this week with health officials who claim there is a potential vaccine already in the pipeline, but it takes 4-6 months and 11 months for the next 2 rounds of testing (which does not include the possibility that it doesn’t work and doesn’t include the manufacturing ramp up time). If nCoV19 is seasonal, it likely won’t be ready for the next 2 cold seasons.
- MereInterest 7y ago
- joe_the_user 7y agoPaywalled
- trevyn 7y agoBill Gates’ blog is paywalled? What? Did the link change?
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- drenginian 7y agoInstead of preparing, Trump disbanded the US pandemic response service.
- robomartin 7y agoWhat frustrates me is how hard it is to make people understand this is a very serious matter. R0 = 2.2 and CFR = 2.5% It only takes ten minutes on Excel to understand the potential horror those numbers represent. How do you communicate this to an audience that is mathematically inept to the point that calculating tip at the restaurant is hard work? The best I’ve come up with is to say that, starting with one person, under ideal conditions, this could infect the entire world population in a month. OK, yes, ideal conditions, I know. How else do you drive the point about exponential/geometric growth? I’ve had the conversation with a few people. It’s amazing to me how many of them were completely dismissive. Is it that hard for average folks to understand? Ignorance is bliss?
- sky_rw 7y agoI've been trying with earnest to wrap my head around the answer to your last question. I saw the writing on the wall 4 weeks ago when the initial numbers started coming out and the cell phone videos of the CCPs response leaked through the firewall. I've been telling my friends and family what these numbers mean and what the implications of this are both medically and economically. The response I get is either "Stop watching fox news", "if it was really that bad big companies would be freaking out", "its just a flu", etc. I've come to the conclusion that, at least in the suburban USA, our lives are just so routine and comfortable that most of us cannot fathom any circumstance that would change it. We relegate such thoughts to the realm of fantasy with zombie movies and the like. It's either business as normal, or a situation you have no hope to prepare for so why bother. Not a mindset I share, likely because I didn't grow up with the guarantee of core needs. 4 weeks ago people would say "why would I keep a stock of n95 masks" like we used to all say "why would you bother locking a cockpit door".
- bamboozled 7y agoIn an Asian mega-city right now. Most people also don't seemed panicked, so I don't think it has much to do with suburban life. Which does seem way safer anyway because it's much less population dense. Not sure I follow your sentiment really?
- arthens 7y agoThey really need to either moderate comments on the blog post or disable them altogether.