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I have the coronavirus – So far, it isn't that bad
- heligate229 7y agostill a harrowing experience. I am in my mid-forties and I am concerned.
- anonsivalley652 7y agoAre you male and have a chronic cardiovascular or pulmonary condition? --- CFR (males and females) --- 50-59 years old 1.3% 40-49 years old 0.4% 30-39 years old 0.2% Male 2.8% Female 1.7% These are averages across ages, and they maybe wildly inaccurate because of the on-going situation has unknowable data on those who are sick but won't seek help or those who will become sick before it's over. Figure 24% higher if male, so roughly 0.5% (1/200) or 24% lower if female 0.3% (1/300) if female, and average health for both. Health condition makes it too unpredictable to guess further, but good health appears strongly correlated with good outcomes and vice-versa.
- MSM 7y agoI see these stats popping up when people express fear and it's crazy to me that we've hit the point where saying "Well, you probably won't even die!" is supposed to assuage concern. Sure, I probably won't die if I get it. I'd rather not be laid up in the hospital (or at home even, really), missing work and other important events as I accrue a larger and larger financial burden because of the US's expensive health care. And that's not even considering the impact this could have to my elderly family and friends.
- notacoward 7y agoExactly. "Mid-forties" probably means friends and associates in the fifties and sixties, parents in the seventies at least. Just knowing someone who is affected can be harrowing, even if it's not you. But I guess a lot of people here don't ever think about anyone who's not them.
- tristanj 7y agoYou do realize that if those death rates [0] hold up, when you take today's global population by age demographic and tally up how many people are expected to die within each age group, you get a total of 90 million dead. Given that top epidemiologists are predicting 40-70% of adults will be infected this year, that would mean roughly 35 to 62 million people would die this year. I would consider that a harrowing experience. [0] I assume you got them from here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se... [1] https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-c...
- beatgammit 7y agoThat sounds like a lot of people, but it's not likely to cause real, noticeable problems in society. I think there's a good chance that our reaction to the virus is more damaging than the virus itself. If 40-70% of people will be infected this year and 35-62 million will die, that's 1-1.5% death rate. The average person will probably know a few people that die from it, but the average person probably knows hundreds of people. This is going to be similar to the number that die from car accidents or HIV, and neither of those have wrecked society. It's going to be sad, but probably won't change life as we know it, unless we let it. Personally, I think we're all overreacting a bit, and the overreaction is what's going to cause the problems, not the disease. The Spanish flu caused problems, but that was ~10x deadlier than COVID-19. We all just need to worry less and be a little more proactive about visiting the doctor.
- anonsivalley652 7y agoIt's not bad* for people who aren't young, old or have diabetes/lung conditions.
- _bxg1 7y agoThis man is 60, so "old" must mean older than that
- anonsivalley652 7y ago"Old" is ambiguous, but I meant that COVID-19 mortality risk increases steeply with age. If they're 60, their risk is slightly higher than 3% because they're male and on the edge of two age groups. Their previous state of health would be the biggest variable. 80+ years old 14.8% 70-79 years old 8.0% 60-69 years old 3.6% 50-59 years old 1.3% 40-49 years old 0.4% This preliminary data from the Chinese officials maybe wildly high or low because dividing current deaths by current cases is invalid within an active event due to the two week incubation period. Additional math would be needed to estimate a range of total current unknown infections in order to make the percentages accurate. What is known, is that like the flu or pneumonia, very old, males and unhealthy have elevated mortality rates. http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-720...
- onetimemanytime 7y agoas you go up the age--I know it sounds cruel--but a lot of them would be dying anyway. So 15% of 80+ year people dying of any cause is probably not far off normal dying rates (without the virus). Anyone know the age group stats of % of people dying of any "regular" causes?
- Zacru 7y agoFrom https://www.statista.com/statistics/241572/death-rate-by-age-and-sex-in-the-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241572/death-rate-by-age... Looks like 6% of 80-84 and 14% of 85+. Someone better at statistics than me could probably say what the relative and absolute risk increase is for contracting COVID-19 at those ages is. Search for "all cause mortality by age" if you want to do some more research.
- akimball 7y agoMost cases will be like a cold. As many as 8% may require ICU care to survive. Unless protocols improve, at least a quarter of those will die. We need a lot more ventilators, immediately. And aggressive use of existing antivirals, protease inhibitors, with thorough data collection.
- Diederich 7y agoIf you have a moment, can you provide links Re: 8% and 25%? Thank you.
- sliken 7y agoDon't have links, and there is much debate. The tricky part is people die quicker than the recover, so any death and recovery totals measured on the same day are measuring different populations. But as people learn more they are getting better ideas on the disease progression. Every number has many assumptions built into it. Seems like very little is known about how many people have had it and were either asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic. So the actual mortality rate is highly debated, without much real info. Not enough testing kits anywhere (in particular the USA and China) is making this difficult. Even with testing it's hard because and unknown number of people can just shrug it off. But if you do go to the hospital and they are completely overwhelmed, treating people in hallways, etc the death rate is 10%. There were times in Wuhan where this was true. If somewhat overwhelmed, able to treat, but not put on a full ventilator, but able to do supportive care (anti-virals, fluids, oxygen, etc) looks like the mortality rate (again for those that go to the hospital) is under 5%. Wuhan has been like this for some days now. For those that go to the hospital where they aren't overwhelmed and you can get full supportive care up to and including a full ventilator the mortality rate, again for those that go to a hospital, is under 1%. This is seen in numerous countries that have very few cases.
- scarmig 7y agoTo add on to your point, this is an argument for taking it very seriously right now, not shrugging it off. Good policy decisions right now can save lots of lives; a million people requiring hospitalization over a year is far, far better than a million people requiring hospitalization over three months. Slowing down the rate of infection isn't just kicking the can down the road, but something that will save countless lives.
- scarmig 7y ago"So far" is doing a bit of work, but ignoring that... We know that COVID-19 has a high mortality rate (and a high rate of requiring ICU care). "High" doesn't mean 50% or higher; it means high compared to influenza or high compared to the capacity the US health system is intended to handle. This article shouldn't be reassuring. Read this line in particular: If I were at home with similar symptoms, I probably would have gone to work as usual. That should scare the fuck out of you.
- gammadens 7y agoSurprised how long he was asymptomatic. That is concerning to me.
- lvturner 7y agoNot really, we've built a culture around pushing ourselves to work even when we are sick. What would be more constructive than being scared is to work positively to end this culture. Edit: to be really explicit, staying at home for several days when you feel sick and even after you think you have recovered should continue, even after the fear of the Coronavirus dies down.
- scarmig 7y agoAgreed that that should be a cultural change, and it'd be good for individuals, individual businesses, the economy, and society at large. The fact that that viewpoint is representative of a broader cultural trend is genuinely terrifying, though. Even ignoring people who have to go to work in order to pay for food and housing (no legal requirement to offer paid sick leave!), there will be a very large group of people who believe it's virtuous to toughen up and go to work anyway, even if they feel like death incarnate.
- brewdad 7y ago> So far" is doing a bit of work, but ignoring that... Exactly. He and his wife felt fine when they left the ship after 16 days. Meanwhile, six passengers who had symptoms earlier are dead. The author could easily have his worst days ahead of him and this article does everyone a disservice.
- lostmsu 7y ago6 people from Diamond Princess are already dead. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
- mappu 7y agoThe author mentions that, towards the end of their post.
- lostmsu 7y agoA lot of people only read the comments on HN. Generally they are more dense and on spot, than original articles.
- LatteLazy 7y agoJust to play devil's advocate... 3711 passengers and crew on board total. 709 tested positive for COVID-19. So sub 1% mortality for the infected. And that's in a population that's likely much older and less fit or healthy than the rest of us. And in pretty ideal conditions for the virus to spread (close quarters, shared living spaces etc).
- molticrystal 7y agoThey walk through two doors at the end of the hall, recovered or dead. For many of them, they have only started, we'll find out the real numbers when they have finished being sorted out. Also there are a lot of people who are "recovered" and tested negative, but a few days later were testing positive again. Either the testing kits are testing for the wrong things or are defective in some way, or there is the possibility the disease is biphasal or/and retreats to a reservoir in the body.
- qeternity 7y agoThere are not “a lot” of reinfected. There are a few reported cases and they’re as confusing as they are worrying.
- glenvdb 7y ago>My chest feels tight, and I have coughing spells. If I were at home with similar symptoms, I probably would have gone to work as usual. This makes me legitimately angry. If you are sick, please stay home, I don't care if you feel "well enough to work". Keep your viruses away from me and everyone else you work with. You're not getting any brownie points for "being a trooper", everyone is just going to be annoyed at you for getting them sick.
- scarmig 7y agoYou are also harming other people when you do; maybe your immune system is all fine and dandy, but plenty of people don't have that luxury. Going to work despite feeling sick means you think your desire to portray yourself as a hard worker takes priority over other people's lives.
- webninja 7y agoBoss doesn’t care if I’m sick even if the rest of the office might. Deadlines are still deadlines to him so I worked through my last 3 illnesses.
- scarmig 7y agoYes, I understand that. Congress needs to pass legislation that guarantees a paid thirty days worth of sick leave.
- SauciestGNU 7y agoMost importantly, we ought to prohibit requirements for medical documentation in all but the most extreme cases. My service worker friends are legally entitled to paid sick leave, but are unable to use it without a doctor's note. But none of them are provided insurance through their employer. I know in general the users of this forum are generally loathe to accept government intervention, but the current mechanisms of American capitalism are antagonistic to public health and civil defense.
- 7y ago
- xiphias2 7y agoI'm still not sure how we can be sure that all deaths that were counted as flu were flu and not coronavirus. Is a flu test run on the dead bodies?
- xiphias2 7y agoCan somebody tell me why I was downvoted? This was a serious question. I read about multiple people in the US who are not sure if they had coronavirus or not, but didn't go testing. Also it seems like flu is supposed until proven proven that a person has coronavirus.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- Johnny555 7y agoWhile it's nice to hear from someone that's recovering well, this blog doesn't give me much solace since it's a form of selection bias. The people that have COVID-19 and are intubated and on a respirator in a hospital likely aren't blogging about it.
- koheripbal 7y agoGiven that 10-15% of people that get it end up in the ICU on a mechanical respirator, and that even those that survive end up with permanent lung damage, I would argue that selection bias at a time like this is almost criminally negligent reporting.
- humaniania 7y agoWhere did you get those statistics from? And do you have a reference for that lung damage claim?
- koheripbal 7y agohttps://covid19data.com/2020/02/14/heres-what-coronavirus-does-to-the-body/ https://covid19data.com/2020/02/14/heres-what-coronavirus-do...
- humaniania 7y agoThat appears to be a clickbait SEO blog. I couldn't find any primary sources for your claims. Did you have a link?
- skinnymuch 7y agoI assume that’s your site? Can’t imagine it being posted otherwise.
- anonAndOn 7y agoI think the author forgot the punchline. "As one of the first few people to arrive in the US of A under quarantine, I survived with a team of hazmat clad expert clinicians and round the clock medical care in a biocontainment facility and you can, too!"
- onetimemanytime 7y agoIf this hits in numbers like it could, people would be lucky to get an IV...forget biocontainment.
- koheripbal 7y agoIt reminds me of some of the social media that came out of Wuhan. ...people begging for care for their loved ones, only to watch them die at home or in the waiting rooms because no respirators or beds were available. Once respirators run out, the fatality rate jumps from 2% to 5%.
- onetimemanytime 7y ago>>I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad. Poor choice of words to put in the title. AIDS isn't that bad either...until it is.
- gbraad 7y agoGreat for him, but here in China things haven't been easy on all. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/29/to-hell-and-back-my-three-weeks-suffering-from-coronavirus https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/29/to-hell-and-ba...
- notacoward 7y ago> Our test results had not arrived before we boarded buses for the airport This is the part where the government really fell down. Tough on immigration, but oblivious to the need for containment when it really matters.
- hurricanetc 7y agoI have the coronavirus- So far, I am dead. -3,000 other people including many who were on the cruise ship with this guy.