4 ms·

Can you please tone down the doomsaying? It's unprecedented, but it's not the black plague by any stretch.

allovernow 7y ago
Chinese sources report up to 15% critical infection rate requiring life support. There are less than 100k ICU beds in the U.S. Consider the spread rate and do the math. It won't be long before hospitals are overwhelmed and businesses start to shut down to quarantine. When that happens, which stores will stay open to provide food? How will they be restocked if supply chains are disrupted? Weeks ago CNBC reported 80-90% of China's GDP was shut down. How long will your home reserves of food last when restaurants and stores close and truckers stop delivering goods? This outbreak could last for months and it's just starting. This isn't just FUD for FUD's sake. People need to wake up to the severity of this virus and prep now. Even if it turns out to be mild at this point this is a risk to greater society because of disruption.
- SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
  Chinese sources report that, outside of Hubei, the outbreak is over and everyone's getting back to work. Even in Hubei, and even in Wuhan itself, essential goods are and consistently have been available.
  - jacquesm 7y ago
    It won't take much to relight that fire. Assuming it's actually out.
  - zaroth 7y ago
    It seems hopeless... to even try and reply to the doomers with some sense of rationality. It’s human nature to get excited in a way about the end of times. Like the preacher on the sidewalk in NYC holding a sign, except now everyone can get away with it and maybe they’re not crazy?! A couple hundred cases per day (and decreasing) of a virus which will be significantly less deadly than an average flu season. My family and I are heading to Disney World. Hopefully the lines will be shorter than average.
  - allovernow 7y ago
    Which sources are you going to believe? Medical researchers potentially trying to warn the world, or sources aligned with the repeatedly demonstrated goal of the CCP to minimize this event by censoring and removing information, and providing misleading information, like a case rate when hospitals are turning people away and tests aren't being conducted? Look at China's absurd response. There has never been a point in history where so many people were placed in lockdown by a single government. Over the flu???
    - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
      I have a broad distrust of any information produced by the Chinese government. So I am suspicious of their claim that the outbreak is contained, yes - but I'm equally suspicious of their claims about infection rates, their claims about what actions the government is taking, and the implicit assumption that the actions they claim to be taking are necessary or warranted. What I distrust a lot more is uncorroborated reports of divergent numbers, because there are just so many ways they could be wrong. For example, I saw one source claiming ironclad proof infection rates are 3x higher than reported - because a document they posted showed the number of positive coronavirus tests run in a day, and it was higher than the number of new cases reported that day. (And I'm extending the very generous assumption that the document was real, but how would anyone know if it wasn't?)
      - allovernow 7y ago
        You should be reading published literature. The paper I'm citing was from either a hospital or University and had some 20 authors.
- sveng 7y ago
  I’ve seen reports of 80% mild, 15% hospital (mainly oxygen and managing secondary infections) and 5% critical care (ICU, some intubations). But, yes, even 5% could overrun hospital resources.
hermitdev 7y ago
Is it really unprecedented? I mean, Ebola emerged not too long ago... Also, keep in mind CDC estimates between 16k-41k have died from the flu in the US alone for the 2019-2020 flu season (dont have a link handy but just Google: CDC 2019 flu deaths). It may be that coronavirus has a higher fatality rate than the flu, but it doesnt have the body count of the flu. I think most of the fear is from it being new and unknown, but I personally have more fear of flu or salmonella poisoning than coronavirus. For instance, I will never eat shrimp from a cafeteria after grtting food poisoning twice. (Sleeping on a bathroom floor so you can easily vomit in the toilet is not fun or comfortable).
brandonmenc 7y ago
> It's unprecedented, but it's not the black plague by any stretch. The disease may not be unprecedented, but the response to it certainly has been.

Chinese sources report up to 15% critical infection rate requiring life support. There are less than 100k ICU beds in the U.S. Consider the spread rate and do the math. It won't be long before hospitals are overwhelmed and businesses start to shut down to quarantine. When that happens, which stores will stay open to provide food? How will they be restocked if supply chains are disrupted? Weeks ago CNBC reported 80-90% of China's GDP was shut down. How long will your home reserves of food last when restaurants and stores close and truckers stop delivering goods? This outbreak could last for months and it's just starting. This isn't just FUD for FUD's sake. People need to wake up to the severity of this virus and prep now. Even if it turns out to be mild at this point this is a risk to greater society because of disruption.

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
Chinese sources report that, outside of Hubei, the outbreak is over and everyone's getting back to work. Even in Hubei, and even in Wuhan itself, essential goods are and consistently have been available.
- jacquesm 7y ago
  It won't take much to relight that fire. Assuming it's actually out.
- zaroth 7y ago
  It seems hopeless... to even try and reply to the doomers with some sense of rationality. It’s human nature to get excited in a way about the end of times. Like the preacher on the sidewalk in NYC holding a sign, except now everyone can get away with it and maybe they’re not crazy?! A couple hundred cases per day (and decreasing) of a virus which will be significantly less deadly than an average flu season. My family and I are heading to Disney World. Hopefully the lines will be shorter than average.
- allovernow 7y ago
  Which sources are you going to believe? Medical researchers potentially trying to warn the world, or sources aligned with the repeatedly demonstrated goal of the CCP to minimize this event by censoring and removing information, and providing misleading information, like a case rate when hospitals are turning people away and tests aren't being conducted? Look at China's absurd response. There has never been a point in history where so many people were placed in lockdown by a single government. Over the flu???
  - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
    I have a broad distrust of any information produced by the Chinese government. So I am suspicious of their claim that the outbreak is contained, yes - but I'm equally suspicious of their claims about infection rates, their claims about what actions the government is taking, and the implicit assumption that the actions they claim to be taking are necessary or warranted. What I distrust a lot more is uncorroborated reports of divergent numbers, because there are just so many ways they could be wrong. For example, I saw one source claiming ironclad proof infection rates are 3x higher than reported - because a document they posted showed the number of positive coronavirus tests run in a day, and it was higher than the number of new cases reported that day. (And I'm extending the very generous assumption that the document was real, but how would anyone know if it wasn't?)
    - allovernow 7y ago
      You should be reading published literature. The paper I'm citing was from either a hospital or University and had some 20 authors.
sveng 7y ago
I’ve seen reports of 80% mild, 15% hospital (mainly oxygen and managing secondary infections) and 5% critical care (ICU, some intubations). But, yes, even 5% could overrun hospital resources.

hermitdev 7y ago

Is it really unprecedented? I mean, Ebola emerged not too long ago... Also, keep in mind CDC estimates between 16k-41k have died from the flu in the US alone for the 2019-2020 flu season (dont have a link handy but just Google: CDC 2019 flu deaths). It may be that coronavirus has a higher fatality rate than the flu, but it doesnt have the body count of the flu. I think most of the fear is from it being new and unknown, but I personally have more fear of flu or salmonella poisoning than coronavirus. For instance, I will never eat shrimp from a cafeteria after grtting food poisoning twice. (Sleeping on a bathroom floor so you can easily vomit in the toilet is not fun or comfortable).

brandonmenc 7y ago

> It's unprecedented, but it's not the black plague by any stretch. The disease may not be unprecedented, but the response to it certainly has been.