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>evidence of some interesting new phenomenon Again, this is an unprecedent event. Nothing in recorded history has had the potential ramifications for society t

>evidence of some interesting new phenomenon Again, this is an unprecedent event. Nothing in recorded history has had the potential ramifications for society that this virus does, short perhaps of the black plague of the middle ages. This virus will test civilization.

Fnoord 7y ago
Will it? Obviously it could be due to all the precautions, but thus far no children 0-9 have died from the virus. The data shows mostly older people, and apparently those already ill. Thus far, that isn't to be compared with black plague because it had a much worse impact.
- elorant 7y ago
  It already does. Stock markets are crashing. The tourism industry worldwide will take a hit. Olympic games may be canceled. Concerts and conventions are also canceled. If this thing keeps spreading cafes and restaurants will start loosing clients by the dozens, companies will have to rely heavily on remote working and who knows what other economic implications will ensue.
  - Fnoord 7y ago
    Sorry, that is not my definition of "testing civilization". Everything you mentioned is luxuries, or has workarounds (e.g. conference call instead of physical meeting). Wake me up when there is a water, food, or housing shortage or significant amount of population infected and dying because of a global disease.
gravelc 7y ago
Was discussing this with colleagues recently. The last big global event was the GFC, and before that WW2. Suspect the impact of COVID-19 will be closer to WW2 than the GFC, but truly hope I'm wrong. We are living through an interesting time, which is never fun.
1_player 7y ago
Can you please tone down the doomsaying? It's unprecedented, but it's not the black plague by any stretch.
- allovernow 7y ago
  Chinese sources report up to 15% critical infection rate requiring life support. There are less than 100k ICU beds in the U.S. Consider the spread rate and do the math. It won't be long before hospitals are overwhelmed and businesses start to shut down to quarantine. When that happens, which stores will stay open to provide food? How will they be restocked if supply chains are disrupted? Weeks ago CNBC reported 80-90% of China's GDP was shut down. How long will your home reserves of food last when restaurants and stores close and truckers stop delivering goods? This outbreak could last for months and it's just starting. This isn't just FUD for FUD's sake. People need to wake up to the severity of this virus and prep now. Even if it turns out to be mild at this point this is a risk to greater society because of disruption.
  - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
    Chinese sources report that, outside of Hubei, the outbreak is over and everyone's getting back to work. Even in Hubei, and even in Wuhan itself, essential goods are and consistently have been available.
    - jacquesm 7y ago
      It won't take much to relight that fire. Assuming it's actually out.
    - zaroth 7y ago
      It seems hopeless... to even try and reply to the doomers with some sense of rationality. It’s human nature to get excited in a way about the end of times. Like the preacher on the sidewalk in NYC holding a sign, except now everyone can get away with it and maybe they’re not crazy?! A couple hundred cases per day (and decreasing) of a virus which will be significantly less deadly than an average flu season. My family and I are heading to Disney World. Hopefully the lines will be shorter than average.
hk__2 7y ago
> Again, this is an unprecedent event. Nothing in recorded history has had the potential ramifications for society that this virus does, short perhaps of the black plague of the middle ages. This virus will test civilization. There’ve been the SARS in 2002-2003 which infected 8000 people and killed 600 ones in 28 countries. It has had such a negligible impact on civilization that most people don’t even remember it.

Fnoord 7y ago

Will it? Obviously it could be due to all the precautions, but thus far no children 0-9 have died from the virus. The data shows mostly older people, and apparently those already ill. Thus far, that isn't to be compared with black plague because it had a much worse impact.

elorant 7y ago
It already does. Stock markets are crashing. The tourism industry worldwide will take a hit. Olympic games may be canceled. Concerts and conventions are also canceled. If this thing keeps spreading cafes and restaurants will start loosing clients by the dozens, companies will have to rely heavily on remote working and who knows what other economic implications will ensue.
- Fnoord 7y ago
  Sorry, that is not my definition of "testing civilization". Everything you mentioned is luxuries, or has workarounds (e.g. conference call instead of physical meeting). Wake me up when there is a water, food, or housing shortage or significant amount of population infected and dying because of a global disease.

gravelc 7y ago

Was discussing this with colleagues recently. The last big global event was the GFC, and before that WW2. Suspect the impact of COVID-19 will be closer to WW2 than the GFC, but truly hope I'm wrong. We are living through an interesting time, which is never fun.

1_player 7y ago

Can you please tone down the doomsaying? It's unprecedented, but it's not the black plague by any stretch.

allovernow 7y ago
Chinese sources report up to 15% critical infection rate requiring life support. There are less than 100k ICU beds in the U.S. Consider the spread rate and do the math. It won't be long before hospitals are overwhelmed and businesses start to shut down to quarantine. When that happens, which stores will stay open to provide food? How will they be restocked if supply chains are disrupted? Weeks ago CNBC reported 80-90% of China's GDP was shut down. How long will your home reserves of food last when restaurants and stores close and truckers stop delivering goods? This outbreak could last for months and it's just starting. This isn't just FUD for FUD's sake. People need to wake up to the severity of this virus and prep now. Even if it turns out to be mild at this point this is a risk to greater society because of disruption.
- SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
  Chinese sources report that, outside of Hubei, the outbreak is over and everyone's getting back to work. Even in Hubei, and even in Wuhan itself, essential goods are and consistently have been available.
  - jacquesm 7y ago
    It won't take much to relight that fire. Assuming it's actually out.
  - zaroth 7y ago
    It seems hopeless... to even try and reply to the doomers with some sense of rationality. It’s human nature to get excited in a way about the end of times. Like the preacher on the sidewalk in NYC holding a sign, except now everyone can get away with it and maybe they’re not crazy?! A couple hundred cases per day (and decreasing) of a virus which will be significantly less deadly than an average flu season. My family and I are heading to Disney World. Hopefully the lines will be shorter than average.

hk__2 7y ago

> Again, this is an unprecedent event. Nothing in recorded history has had the potential ramifications for society that this virus does, short perhaps of the black plague of the middle ages. This virus will test civilization. There’ve been the SARS in 2002-2003 which infected 8000 people and killed 600 ones in 28 countries. It has had such a negligible impact on civilization that most people don’t even remember it.