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Sorry to change the topic but I'm really struggling with a decision to fly from Tokyo (where I live) to the USA tomorrow for a wedding. One of my closest frien

Sorry to change the topic but I'm really struggling with a decision to fly from Tokyo (where I live) to the USA tomorrow for a wedding. One of my closest friends is getting married. She says to come! Wedding is Saturday. Day after I'd fly to another state to see mom. A few days after that I'd fly to another state to see brother and dad. After that was supposed to be GDC. May still go to SF or just stay with dad but current flight back is after GDC. I don't really want to miss my friends wedding and was really looking forward to seeing family as I only get to seem them once every other year or so and parents are healthy but ~80 so no so many chances left. So, what do I do? Go and cross my fingers I don't catch it? Pray that I'm not a carrier? No symptoms ATM. I currently work from home so haven't been commuting in typical Tokyo rush hour trains but have been out at non-rush hour 2 out of 3 days a week. Is it selfish to want to go? Is it selfish to not want to go? Is it irresponsible to go? Is it stupid to be worried?

tinza123 7y ago
I'm from a non-Hubei Chinese province. I won't go if I were you. Although the chances are small, but there are several cases in my home town, where people came back from Hubei province (where the outbreak initiated), without any symptoms, turned out to be carriers. One graduate student infected > 10 family members while maintaining normal body temporature, made local news right away.
- charliemil4 7y ago
  Based on your experience, are people fully recovering from Coronavirus? How long does that take usually?
  - tinza123 7y ago
    My dad works for the local CDC so I was following the development pretty closely. It really depends on the person themselves, most people do recover without obvious squelae. It can take up to 21 days, tho most people show symptoms within 14 days.
    - charliemil4 7y ago
      Thank you for this - stay safe and healthy.
cdiamand 7y ago
I'm going to say go for it. If this event holds enough significance for you that you will regret not going, then I say go. With the caveat that you maintain good hygiene, wear a mask and take any appropriate steps. I am interested in hearing the counter argument though.
- cloakandswagger 7y ago
  All the proper hygiene in the world won't prevent you from being infected if there's an overnight explosion in cases while you're in contact with hundreds of people in airports, airplanes and social gatherings. Even if you did manage to avoid getting sick, there's a chance you could get stuck in quarantine in Japan, the US or both as countries become more aware of the virus' dormancy. Anecdotally, I have several friends who have cancelled non-refundable trips. If it were me, the desire to go on the trip wouldn't outweigh the stress of worrying about being infected, being held in quarantine, or traveling while a global panic sets in.
  - cdiamand 7y ago
    Thank you for this! I'm starting to lean towards a recommendation of not going.
  - owenmarshall 7y ago
    > there's a chance you could get stuck in quarantine in Japan, the US or both as countries become more aware of the virus' dormancy. That's the key point for me. My personal risk calculus has me staying in my own country: while I think it's extremely unlikely that international travel to non-hot spots would lead to infection, I'm not chancing entry / exit / in place quarantines.
claudeganon 7y ago
IMO don’t put your family at risk. We already know there’s asymptomatic transmission of the disease and that it’s much more injurious and deadly to people over 50. If you’re young and healthy, yes, you’ll probably be fine, but run the risk of exposing others in a more precarious state.
senordevnyc 7y ago
In the absence of any clear data or guidance either way, I don't think either decision would be terrible or irresponsible of you. If it were me...I probably wouldn't go, but I really don't know. Your parents ages is a factor on both sides, honestly. Whatever you decide, I applaud you for at least asking the question and thinking about the risks to yourself and others, instead of so many who want to stick their head in the sand and insist that everything is fine.
doctorOb 7y ago
I just cancelled my trip _to_ Tokyo this morning at the last minute because I was worried about unwittingly bringing the virus back to the states and getting friends and family (children and immune deficient) sick.
- flowerbeater 7y ago
  Just wondering, were you able to get a refund of the paid expenses?
  - doctorOb 7y ago
    No refund on the flights so we ended up paying a ticket change fee and rescheduling for september! Some of the lodging was less flexible unfortunately :(
ghaff 7y ago
Personally I would probably go if I felt I was relatively low risk as you seem to be. But, then, I'm planning on taking off for a couple of weeks of conferences within the US on Monday. But it ultimately has to be an individual decision.
impendia 7y ago
For what it's worth, a Japanese work collaborator of mine had plans to visit me in the US next week. Just today he wrote me to cancel. He mentioned an additional concern: that air travel might be disrupted, and that he'd be unable to return home.
- nitwit005 7y ago
  Yes, having the return ticket canceled would be my real concern. Seems like an easy way to get into a hotel and travel visa mess.
  - ghaff 7y ago
    On the one hand, I'd worry less on a work trip. Whatever expenses are associated with having to hang out in a foreign country and dealing with visas isn't on me personally. On the other hand, do I really want to expose myself to unanticipated foreign quarantine for my job?
mtm7 7y ago
It seems like you're relatively low risk. Japan has several hundred cases in a population of 126 million. It's still good to be cautious though. The negatives: air travel could be disrupted while you're here, there's asymptomatic transmission, you need to pass through a busy airport in a country with unknown infection routes, and (most importantly) the virus is much more dangerous for your parents. If I was in your shoes, I'd probably cancel and plan a trip to see everyone in a few months.
- eric-hu 7y ago
  Correction: several hundred confirmed cases. They're not testing the whole population every day. It's dangerous to assume the confirmed cases is close to the number of transmissible people.
heimatau 7y ago
If you're younger than 50. I'd go. Take basic precautions but don't worry. If you're older than 50, still go but take extra precautions. And take any symptoms very seriously.
- mjevans 7y ago
  Take the precautions either way. Also consider wearing thin knit or cotton gloves to remind you to not touch things by default.
- andrei_says_ 7y ago
  Not op but I’ve been wondering, if symptoms appear what can be done apart from go home with the flu and hope it’ll pass and not kill me??
  - adventured 7y ago
    Right now they'll probably want to test and actively quarantine you, if you really are showing symptoms. In a more mass-spread scenario, where they can't really handle all the cases with high attention - follow your symptoms each day closely and if you're getting noticeably worse from one day to the next after the early symptoms have appeared (after the first several days), go to the hospital and seek treatment. It doesn't appear to be much different than having the flu in this regard, it's that the mortality rate and virality appears to be far higher (and a far higher percentage of patients are requiring intensive care). There was an excellent 'inside the hot zone' article posted here on HN a few weeks ago, that interviewed a doctor in China that had directly dealt with many early cases of Covid. His input was that the people that died turned hard south in the second week after symptoms presented, and would often die in the third week. That pattern tended to repeat for patients that died. Seeking treatment at a hospital as soon as possible if you see yourself turn for the worse in the second week, appears to be critical.
    - mjevans 7y ago
      The pattern you describe should be everyone's standard practice already. If symptoms are getting worse, particularly acutely, seek medical attention. Importantly, if you think it might be something bad (like COVID-19 or another contagious disease) make sure to make that known to the first and primary medical contacts you make as you seek treatment.
kalleboo 7y ago
I'd go to the wedding and skip the rest of the trip. GDC is certain to be canceled (Facebook F8 was just cancelled)
bsder 7y ago
There is no good answer, but, if I were you, I would probably go but keep a close eye on symptoms. Be aware, that you are probably likely to get hit with a quarantine if everything goes pandemic. And, if things do go pandemic, you probably want to have seen your parents. Skip GDC, though. That's just asking for trouble. And it's likely to be cancelled, anyway.
DarthGhandi 7y ago
Go, the media is beating it up ridiculously. A few magnitudes more people are being hit by lightning outside of China than dying from COVID19. Can we get some actuaries in here please?

tinza123 7y ago

I'm from a non-Hubei Chinese province. I won't go if I were you. Although the chances are small, but there are several cases in my home town, where people came back from Hubei province (where the outbreak initiated), without any symptoms, turned out to be carriers. One graduate student infected > 10 family members while maintaining normal body temporature, made local news right away.

charliemil4 7y ago
Based on your experience, are people fully recovering from Coronavirus? How long does that take usually?
- tinza123 7y ago
  My dad works for the local CDC so I was following the development pretty closely. It really depends on the person themselves, most people do recover without obvious squelae. It can take up to 21 days, tho most people show symptoms within 14 days.
  - charliemil4 7y ago
    Thank you for this - stay safe and healthy.

cdiamand 7y ago

I'm going to say go for it. If this event holds enough significance for you that you will regret not going, then I say go. With the caveat that you maintain good hygiene, wear a mask and take any appropriate steps. I am interested in hearing the counter argument though.

cloakandswagger 7y ago
All the proper hygiene in the world won't prevent you from being infected if there's an overnight explosion in cases while you're in contact with hundreds of people in airports, airplanes and social gatherings. Even if you did manage to avoid getting sick, there's a chance you could get stuck in quarantine in Japan, the US or both as countries become more aware of the virus' dormancy. Anecdotally, I have several friends who have cancelled non-refundable trips. If it were me, the desire to go on the trip wouldn't outweigh the stress of worrying about being infected, being held in quarantine, or traveling while a global panic sets in.
- cdiamand 7y ago
  Thank you for this! I'm starting to lean towards a recommendation of not going.
- owenmarshall 7y ago
  > there's a chance you could get stuck in quarantine in Japan, the US or both as countries become more aware of the virus' dormancy. That's the key point for me. My personal risk calculus has me staying in my own country: while I think it's extremely unlikely that international travel to non-hot spots would lead to infection, I'm not chancing entry / exit / in place quarantines.

claudeganon 7y ago

IMO don’t put your family at risk. We already know there’s asymptomatic transmission of the disease and that it’s much more injurious and deadly to people over 50. If you’re young and healthy, yes, you’ll probably be fine, but run the risk of exposing others in a more precarious state.

senordevnyc 7y ago

In the absence of any clear data or guidance either way, I don't think either decision would be terrible or irresponsible of you. If it were me...I probably wouldn't go, but I really don't know. Your parents ages is a factor on both sides, honestly. Whatever you decide, I applaud you for at least asking the question and thinking about the risks to yourself and others, instead of so many who want to stick their head in the sand and insist that everything is fine.

doctorOb 7y ago

I just cancelled my trip _to_ Tokyo this morning at the last minute because I was worried about unwittingly bringing the virus back to the states and getting friends and family (children and immune deficient) sick.

flowerbeater 7y ago
Just wondering, were you able to get a refund of the paid expenses?
- doctorOb 7y ago
  No refund on the flights so we ended up paying a ticket change fee and rescheduling for september! Some of the lodging was less flexible unfortunately :(

ghaff 7y ago

Personally I would probably go if I felt I was relatively low risk as you seem to be. But, then, I'm planning on taking off for a couple of weeks of conferences within the US on Monday. But it ultimately has to be an individual decision.

impendia 7y ago

For what it's worth, a Japanese work collaborator of mine had plans to visit me in the US next week. Just today he wrote me to cancel. He mentioned an additional concern: that air travel might be disrupted, and that he'd be unable to return home.

nitwit005 7y ago
Yes, having the return ticket canceled would be my real concern. Seems like an easy way to get into a hotel and travel visa mess.
- ghaff 7y ago
  On the one hand, I'd worry less on a work trip. Whatever expenses are associated with having to hang out in a foreign country and dealing with visas isn't on me personally. On the other hand, do I really want to expose myself to unanticipated foreign quarantine for my job?

mtm7 7y ago

It seems like you're relatively low risk. Japan has several hundred cases in a population of 126 million. It's still good to be cautious though. The negatives: air travel could be disrupted while you're here, there's asymptomatic transmission, you need to pass through a busy airport in a country with unknown infection routes, and (most importantly) the virus is much more dangerous for your parents. If I was in your shoes, I'd probably cancel and plan a trip to see everyone in a few months.

eric-hu 7y ago
Correction: several hundred confirmed cases. They're not testing the whole population every day. It's dangerous to assume the confirmed cases is close to the number of transmissible people.

heimatau 7y ago

If you're younger than 50. I'd go. Take basic precautions but don't worry. If you're older than 50, still go but take extra precautions. And take any symptoms very seriously.

mjevans 7y ago
Take the precautions either way. Also consider wearing thin knit or cotton gloves to remind you to not touch things by default.
andrei_says_ 7y ago
Not op but I’ve been wondering, if symptoms appear what can be done apart from go home with the flu and hope it’ll pass and not kill me??
- adventured 7y ago
  Right now they'll probably want to test and actively quarantine you, if you really are showing symptoms. In a more mass-spread scenario, where they can't really handle all the cases with high attention - follow your symptoms each day closely and if you're getting noticeably worse from one day to the next after the early symptoms have appeared (after the first several days), go to the hospital and seek treatment. It doesn't appear to be much different than having the flu in this regard, it's that the mortality rate and virality appears to be far higher (and a far higher percentage of patients are requiring intensive care). There was an excellent 'inside the hot zone' article posted here on HN a few weeks ago, that interviewed a doctor in China that had directly dealt with many early cases of Covid. His input was that the people that died turned hard south in the second week after symptoms presented, and would often die in the third week. That pattern tended to repeat for patients that died. Seeking treatment at a hospital as soon as possible if you see yourself turn for the worse in the second week, appears to be critical.
  - mjevans 7y ago
    The pattern you describe should be everyone's standard practice already. If symptoms are getting worse, particularly acutely, seek medical attention. Importantly, if you think it might be something bad (like COVID-19 or another contagious disease) make sure to make that known to the first and primary medical contacts you make as you seek treatment.

kalleboo 7y ago

I'd go to the wedding and skip the rest of the trip. GDC is certain to be canceled (Facebook F8 was just cancelled)

bsder 7y ago

There is no good answer, but, if I were you, I would probably go but keep a close eye on symptoms. Be aware, that you are probably likely to get hit with a quarantine if everything goes pandemic. And, if things do go pandemic, you probably want to have seen your parents. Skip GDC, though. That's just asking for trouble. And it's likely to be cancelled, anyway.

DarthGhandi 7y ago

Go, the media is beating it up ridiculously. A few magnitudes more people are being hit by lightning outside of China than dying from COVID19. Can we get some actuaries in here please?