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I'm not. There's no meaningful preparations for avoiding what is essentially a really dangerous variant of the common cold at an individual level. Now governm

I'm not. There's no meaningful preparations for avoiding what is essentially a really dangerous variant of the common cold at an individual level. Now governments and the medical field should be preparing for it. But most of that is logistical problems (e.g. number of hospital beds, preparing quarantine plans, test kits, etc). You can order a bunch of masks if it makes you feel better, but countries with common mask usage are still seeing a large scale spread so YMMV.

megous 7y ago
Question is about disruptions caused by people's reaction to the outbreak, not the virus itself. Stuff like this: https://www.ibtimes.sg/wuhan-virus-italy-supermarkets-are-running-out-food-panicked-italian-shoppers-empty-shelves-40064 https://www.ibtimes.sg/wuhan-virus-italy-supermarkets-are-ru... The freaking panic is already starting in my country too. People buying up food in 10x the quantities than the usual shopping visit, etc.. I've gone shopping yesterday, when the virus was found in the country next to mine, to buy enough food for a week, just to avoid the inevitable initial panic that's starting today, when the first case appeared in my country.
- akerro 7y ago
  All animals panic even in minor danger.
- helij 7y ago
  It's not panic. It's reality. Many of us did the same. I went with 2 weeks worth of food, water and toiletries and we already have the usual stock which including refrigirated stuff should be enough for full month if needed. When you see small towns put into quarantine in Europe allowing people in and out only with 'written permission' you know you should prepare family and yourself asap. Get food, water, medicine and everything that might make life easier for you and your family during weeks of quarantine.
  - megous 7y ago
    Well, I saw a lady who bought out a full cart of flour packages yesterday. There was last 1kg package of salt, and around 6 packages of flour left on the shelf. (normally there's ~200) Yes, it's not a generalized panic, but individual people like that can really screw up the shopping experience for others. Is it panicking? Dunno, maybe she's just setting up a flour shop, or has 50 hungry necks to feed. But it was certainly unusual.
    - helij 7y ago
      We regularly buy 10kg of flour because we have a bread maker. The last time I bought bread (not counting when on holiday) is 3.5 years ago. 10kg is enough for over a week. Full cart is a bit much though if it's like 50kg+
- Diederich 7y ago
  My wife was in a pretty typical Walgreens today and noted that there was a sign in front saying that they didn't have any masks left and that they didn't know when they were going to get more. Inside, there were a number of sections besides masks that were completely empty. This Walgreens is in Mountain View, a few miles from the main Google campus in California.
- gonational 7y ago
  What country are you in, if you don’t mind me asking?
  - megous 7y ago
    CZ
- ClearAndPresent 7y ago
  >The freaking panic is already starting in my country too. People buying up food in 10x the quantities than the usual shopping visit, etc.. >I've gone shopping yesterday, when the virus was found in the country next to mine What's the old saying? "You're not sitting in traffic, you are the traffic." :)
petschge 7y ago
There is at least one preparation that you can take: Make sure you have enough (non quickly perishable) food and essentials such as tooth paste and toilet paper at home so you don't have to go out shopping if you are at home sick for a week.
- Tepix 7y ago
  It's not just if you get sick yourself. If your company closes down its offices and you have to stay at home you may want to minimize your shopping during that time as well.
bad_user 7y ago
Masks don't help because of low quality and people lack proper training... you shouldn't touch the mask, you shouldn't reuse it, you should properly dispose it, etc. A saner advice is to wash your hands frequently and to avoid touching your face when in public. Because you can get this virus by touching infected surfaces and then touching your face. It doesn't seem to be an airborn virus, but it does survive on surfaces. I cary a hand sanitizer for those moments in public when I feel the need to scratch my face :-)
- joering2 7y ago
  Masks do help and you explained why. Its harder to touch your face, nose, lips when wearing a mask. So it does help fight the spread and getting yourself sick easier.
  - aerojoe23 7y ago
    Could you try that again? More smaller sentences please.
- jakkals 7y ago
  > It doesn't seem to be an airborn virus, but it does survive on surfaces. I just read this last night, and from this I had the impression that it is an airborne virus, and that surface spreading is not the main vector: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission...
  - xboxnolifes 7y ago
    The "airborne" transmission in that link is what I believe is called "aerosol transmission", not airborne. Because it relies on liquid droplets in the air, and not actually able to transmit on something like dist in the air.
    - jakkals 7y ago
      There is also transmission (actually the first one mentioned) "Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet)"--this does not mention liquid droplets at all, which is why I figured it to be airborne.
mindcrime 7y ago
There's no meaningful preparations for avoiding what is essentially a really dangerous variant of the common cold at an individual level. Right, but you can prepare for potential societal disruption(s) caused by the disease. Even if you don't get sick yourself, you could be impacted.
8iterations 7y ago
There is only a ~2% mortality rate from COVID-19, less than the usual flu. If one is prepping to survive from this, it is much more likely you have deeper emotional & psychological issues that prevent you from holding long lasting intimate relationships. And are at a higher risk of death from depression, anxiety, loneliness,and general social isolation. Thank you for listening. P.S. I work in this field and attached is an analysis of the ebola virus breakout from a few years ago, if you feel so inclined to work on something similar using your CS skills for COVID. See you in New Zealand with all the other bitcoin moguls :-) https://petridishtalk.com/2014/10/02/retooling-analysis-pipelines-from-human-to-ebov-ngs-data-for-rapid-alignment-and-strain-identification/ https://petridishtalk.com/2014/10/02/retooling-analysis-pipe...
- tebuevd 7y ago
  This is so infuriatingly false. The mortality rate for the flu this season has been ~0.1%. The coronavirus is over 10x deadlier than the usual flu according to early estimates. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/the-flu-has-already-killed-10000-across-us-as-world-frets-over-coronavirus.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/the-flu-has-already-killed-1...
  - m3kw9 7y ago
    10x deadlier for 50+ yr olds for younger folks is probably 5-7x lower
    - ericb 7y ago
      Lower overall, but I believe it isn't lower than the flu for any age range, except maybe 0-10 or 0-20. I'll try and find the relevant study link.
    - kps 7y ago
      “… and nobody in my Bay area startup is over 50, because we hire for culture fit.”
- rp00 7y ago
  I disagree with your sentiment about preppier mentality strongly. For me, it’s not about prepping to survive like THIS is a world-ending event, it’s about not getting caught in a rush to get supplies or stampedes when people panic. Tbh, that’s more of a concern than the disease. That said, the serious complication rate is higher than the flu. The r0 is much higher than the flu. The disease is spread asymptomatically. Nobody is ready if the disease does take hold and spreads widely. Markets are/will continue to take a massive shit.
fctorial 7y ago
The spread seems to be plateu as well. Total numbers will probably be less than 100,000.
- TheAdamAndChe 7y ago
  It plateaued in China following an incredibly massive quarantine effort. The infection is hitting countries with not nearly the social control measures that China has.
  - jerf 7y ago
    You might be surprised. There are some old laws and powers that are going to be dusted off, and in some other cases it may be the case that governments just claim powers on an emergency basis and essentially nobody other than the absolute political fringes of society is going to complain.
    - wonderwonder 7y ago
      "essentially nobody other than the absolute political fringes of society is going to complain" I very much dont think that is the way this plays out in the western world. In China, they welded the doors shut on entire residential buildings leaving the people in there to either die or survive on their own. They bagged and gagged people with elevated temperature and force quarantined them. They had crematoriums working over time. China has complete military control of their population, this is going to go very differently in the West. China's process was very effective and probably greatly reduced the rate of infection but there is no way people in other countries are just going to sit silently while the same actions are carried out.
      - cjamesd 7y ago
        Source for these claims?
    - nostrademons 7y ago
      Much of the world isn't actually under control of a government. Here in the developed world, we've basically bought into the nation-state system, with a strong central government controlling a defined territory with border checkpoints. But many parts of central Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and rural areas in other continents aren't like this. The dominant social organization is by tribe, clan, cartel, gang, or warlord; borders are porous or nonexistent; and the government has no authority, not even a monopoly on physical force. The virus doesn't care whether you believe in governments, and it's just now hitting these regions - Pakistan, Africa, North Korea, etc.
Buttons840 7y ago
Do not overstock on masks or other supplies. Masks especially should be available to the sick. It's ironic that (I'm sure) someone out there will stock up on 10,000 masks and it will cause them to be in even greater danger because the sick people around them will have fewer masks. The CDC recommends that sick people wear masks to keep droplets in, and that people who directly interact with sick people wear masks while interacting with the sick person (to stop projectile droplets I presume). The CDC does not recommend masks be worn generally. Masks help remind you not to touch your face, but you can just put tape on your fingers or something for the same effect (this is just my personal idea). (This is more of a PSA than a direct reply to your comment.)
- cbHXBY1D 7y ago
  2-3 weeks ago people on here were advocating stocking up on masks and selling at a high profit.
  - someguydave 7y ago
    what is profitable for the individual may not be profitable for the group.
  - riquito 7y ago
    In Italy it's illegal, you cannot hoard or speculate on basic necessities (as the masks are being considered during the epidemic). https://www.repubblica.it/economia/2020/02/26/news/coronavirus_la_guardia_di_finanza_da_amazon_ed_ebay_per_le_speculazioni_su_mascherine_e_gel_detergenti-249647637 https://www.repubblica.it/economia/2020/02/26/news/coronavir...
    - gwright 7y ago
      Perfect way to guarantee shortages. Let the price float and there is an incentive for businesses to figure out how to increase the supply quickly, thus causing the price to drop. The economic theory on this is rock-solid and yet it seems impossible to educate the general public or government officials regarding the consequences of price controls.
ravenstine 7y ago
You can limit your exposure. Lots of people only wash their hands when they use the bathroom, if even that. They touch their faces and mouths a lot more often than they think. If they can learn to change their habits, wash their hands regularly if they go in public, and work from home more often if allowed by their employer, I'd say those are meaningful preparations.
- wnkrshm 7y ago
  Is there a procedure for when your face itches? Use your arm? Part of a shirt?
millettjon 7y ago
You can maximize immune system functioning by making sure you get proper nutrition and plenty of sleep.
- lsllc 7y ago
  Don't forget exercise.
  - spking 7y ago
    Do you suppose gyms are a bad place to go during an outbreak? So far I haven't stopped going, but seems like it could be an especially nasty hotbed of airborne and surface-based viruses.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    - pmoriarty 7y ago
      You don't have to go to the gym to exercise. Plenty of bodyweight exercise (like push-ups, L-sits, planks, burpees, etc) can be done at home without any equipment. Investing in a little bit of equipment, like barbells or maybe a pull-up bar, can let you do even more exercise at home.
      - mercer 7y ago
        While I could Google this, I often prefer asking people I 'know' even as tangentially as via HN comments: any suggestions for resources about this? I'd like to exercise more, and I have an entire room available, but I'm not sure where to start. I have the one-handed weight thingies, for one, but a pull-up bar is not an option. I heard one of those ball thingies with a handle is useful?
        Barracoon 7y ago
        This app may be useful to you. I've used it for about 6 months and have been pretty happy with it. You can customize what equipment you have available so that it builds you a workout based on that. On the other side, you can look at what equipment it lists and determine what you want to buy. https://www.fitbod.me https://www.fitbod.me
qrbLPHiKpiux 7y ago
You should be. My business operation supply chains are disrupted. Without certain goods, I can't work. I am not without, but my suppliers have rationed some things I buy.
- kevas 7y ago
  How bad are they disrupted? Any idea when they’ll be back up? If you have backup suppliers, are they down too?
the_watcher 7y ago
I don't think OP is asking about preparing for or avoiding actually getting the disease. OP is asking about preparing for potential shortages of goods if quarantines are ultimately deployed in the US (which is what's already happening globally).
aaron695 7y ago
It's hard not to down vote this. It's wrong, but the question was about what people are doing and thinking. I think it's important to see what people think and people shouldn't be down voted for being honest. But I have to be OT and say "a really dangerous variant of the common cold" - It's killing 14% of people over 80 who get it at last estimates. And permanently hurting a lot of people over 80 as well. And we don't really do flu season as well as we could, as a society we need to step up a bit in general. We could all prepare for even the flu season more than we do. Common cold, perhaps meh.
Fnoord 7y ago
Me neither, I trust my government will if its required. Could burn some 10 kg and still be OK on weight. More concerned about rest of family.

megous 7y ago

Question is about disruptions caused by people's reaction to the outbreak, not the virus itself. Stuff like this: https://www.ibtimes.sg/wuhan-virus-italy-supermarkets-are-running-out-food-panicked-italian-shoppers-empty-shelves-40064 https://www.ibtimes.sg/wuhan-virus-italy-supermarkets-are-ru... The freaking panic is already starting in my country too. People buying up food in 10x the quantities than the usual shopping visit, etc.. I've gone shopping yesterday, when the virus was found in the country next to mine, to buy enough food for a week, just to avoid the inevitable initial panic that's starting today, when the first case appeared in my country.

akerro 7y ago
All animals panic even in minor danger.
helij 7y ago
It's not panic. It's reality. Many of us did the same. I went with 2 weeks worth of food, water and toiletries and we already have the usual stock which including refrigirated stuff should be enough for full month if needed. When you see small towns put into quarantine in Europe allowing people in and out only with 'written permission' you know you should prepare family and yourself asap. Get food, water, medicine and everything that might make life easier for you and your family during weeks of quarantine.
- megous 7y ago
  Well, I saw a lady who bought out a full cart of flour packages yesterday. There was last 1kg package of salt, and around 6 packages of flour left on the shelf. (normally there's ~200) Yes, it's not a generalized panic, but individual people like that can really screw up the shopping experience for others. Is it panicking? Dunno, maybe she's just setting up a flour shop, or has 50 hungry necks to feed. But it was certainly unusual.
  - helij 7y ago
    We regularly buy 10kg of flour because we have a bread maker. The last time I bought bread (not counting when on holiday) is 3.5 years ago. 10kg is enough for over a week. Full cart is a bit much though if it's like 50kg+
Diederich 7y ago
My wife was in a pretty typical Walgreens today and noted that there was a sign in front saying that they didn't have any masks left and that they didn't know when they were going to get more. Inside, there were a number of sections besides masks that were completely empty. This Walgreens is in Mountain View, a few miles from the main Google campus in California.
gonational 7y ago
What country are you in, if you don’t mind me asking?
- megous 7y ago
  CZ
ClearAndPresent 7y ago
>The freaking panic is already starting in my country too. People buying up food in 10x the quantities than the usual shopping visit, etc.. >I've gone shopping yesterday, when the virus was found in the country next to mine What's the old saying? "You're not sitting in traffic, you are the traffic." :)

petschge 7y ago

There is at least one preparation that you can take: Make sure you have enough (non quickly perishable) food and essentials such as tooth paste and toilet paper at home so you don't have to go out shopping if you are at home sick for a week.

Tepix 7y ago
It's not just if you get sick yourself. If your company closes down its offices and you have to stay at home you may want to minimize your shopping during that time as well.

bad_user 7y ago

Masks don't help because of low quality and people lack proper training... you shouldn't touch the mask, you shouldn't reuse it, you should properly dispose it, etc. A saner advice is to wash your hands frequently and to avoid touching your face when in public. Because you can get this virus by touching infected surfaces and then touching your face. It doesn't seem to be an airborn virus, but it does survive on surfaces. I cary a hand sanitizer for those moments in public when I feel the need to scratch my face :-)

joering2 7y ago
Masks do help and you explained why. Its harder to touch your face, nose, lips when wearing a mask. So it does help fight the spread and getting yourself sick easier.
- aerojoe23 7y ago
  Could you try that again? More smaller sentences please.
jakkals 7y ago
> It doesn't seem to be an airborn virus, but it does survive on surfaces. I just read this last night, and from this I had the impression that it is an airborne virus, and that surface spreading is not the main vector: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission...
- xboxnolifes 7y ago
  The "airborne" transmission in that link is what I believe is called "aerosol transmission", not airborne. Because it relies on liquid droplets in the air, and not actually able to transmit on something like dist in the air.
  - jakkals 7y ago
    There is also transmission (actually the first one mentioned) "Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet)"--this does not mention liquid droplets at all, which is why I figured it to be airborne.

mindcrime 7y ago

There's no meaningful preparations for avoiding what is essentially a really dangerous variant of the common cold at an individual level. Right, but you can prepare for potential societal disruption(s) caused by the disease. Even if you don't get sick yourself, you could be impacted.

8iterations 7y ago

There is only a ~2% mortality rate from COVID-19, less than the usual flu. If one is prepping to survive from this, it is much more likely you have deeper emotional & psychological issues that prevent you from holding long lasting intimate relationships. And are at a higher risk of death from depression, anxiety, loneliness,and general social isolation. Thank you for listening. P.S. I work in this field and attached is an analysis of the ebola virus breakout from a few years ago, if you feel so inclined to work on something similar using your CS skills for COVID. See you in New Zealand with all the other bitcoin moguls :-) https://petridishtalk.com/2014/10/02/retooling-analysis-pipelines-from-human-to-ebov-ngs-data-for-rapid-alignment-and-strain-identification/ https://petridishtalk.com/2014/10/02/retooling-analysis-pipe...

tebuevd 7y ago
This is so infuriatingly false. The mortality rate for the flu this season has been ~0.1%. The coronavirus is over 10x deadlier than the usual flu according to early estimates. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/the-flu-has-already-killed-10000-across-us-as-world-frets-over-coronavirus.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/the-flu-has-already-killed-1...
- m3kw9 7y ago
  10x deadlier for 50+ yr olds for younger folks is probably 5-7x lower
  - ericb 7y ago
    Lower overall, but I believe it isn't lower than the flu for any age range, except maybe 0-10 or 0-20. I'll try and find the relevant study link.
  - kps 7y ago
    “… and nobody in my Bay area startup is over 50, because we hire for culture fit.”
rp00 7y ago
I disagree with your sentiment about preppier mentality strongly. For me, it’s not about prepping to survive like THIS is a world-ending event, it’s about not getting caught in a rush to get supplies or stampedes when people panic. Tbh, that’s more of a concern than the disease. That said, the serious complication rate is higher than the flu. The r0 is much higher than the flu. The disease is spread asymptomatically. Nobody is ready if the disease does take hold and spreads widely. Markets are/will continue to take a massive shit.

fctorial 7y ago

The spread seems to be plateu as well. Total numbers will probably be less than 100,000.

TheAdamAndChe 7y ago
It plateaued in China following an incredibly massive quarantine effort. The infection is hitting countries with not nearly the social control measures that China has.
- jerf 7y ago
  You might be surprised. There are some old laws and powers that are going to be dusted off, and in some other cases it may be the case that governments just claim powers on an emergency basis and essentially nobody other than the absolute political fringes of society is going to complain.
  - wonderwonder 7y ago
    "essentially nobody other than the absolute political fringes of society is going to complain" I very much dont think that is the way this plays out in the western world. In China, they welded the doors shut on entire residential buildings leaving the people in there to either die or survive on their own. They bagged and gagged people with elevated temperature and force quarantined them. They had crematoriums working over time. China has complete military control of their population, this is going to go very differently in the West. China's process was very effective and probably greatly reduced the rate of infection but there is no way people in other countries are just going to sit silently while the same actions are carried out.
    - cjamesd 7y ago
      Source for these claims?
  - nostrademons 7y ago
    Much of the world isn't actually under control of a government. Here in the developed world, we've basically bought into the nation-state system, with a strong central government controlling a defined territory with border checkpoints. But many parts of central Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and rural areas in other continents aren't like this. The dominant social organization is by tribe, clan, cartel, gang, or warlord; borders are porous or nonexistent; and the government has no authority, not even a monopoly on physical force. The virus doesn't care whether you believe in governments, and it's just now hitting these regions - Pakistan, Africa, North Korea, etc.

Buttons840 7y ago

Do not overstock on masks or other supplies. Masks especially should be available to the sick. It's ironic that (I'm sure) someone out there will stock up on 10,000 masks and it will cause them to be in even greater danger because the sick people around them will have fewer masks. The CDC recommends that sick people wear masks to keep droplets in, and that people who directly interact with sick people wear masks while interacting with the sick person (to stop projectile droplets I presume). The CDC does not recommend masks be worn generally. Masks help remind you not to touch your face, but you can just put tape on your fingers or something for the same effect (this is just my personal idea). (This is more of a PSA than a direct reply to your comment.)

cbHXBY1D 7y ago
2-3 weeks ago people on here were advocating stocking up on masks and selling at a high profit.
- someguydave 7y ago
  what is profitable for the individual may not be profitable for the group.
- riquito 7y ago
  In Italy it's illegal, you cannot hoard or speculate on basic necessities (as the masks are being considered during the epidemic). https://www.repubblica.it/economia/2020/02/26/news/coronavirus_la_guardia_di_finanza_da_amazon_ed_ebay_per_le_speculazioni_su_mascherine_e_gel_detergenti-249647637 https://www.repubblica.it/economia/2020/02/26/news/coronavir...
  - gwright 7y ago
    Perfect way to guarantee shortages. Let the price float and there is an incentive for businesses to figure out how to increase the supply quickly, thus causing the price to drop. The economic theory on this is rock-solid and yet it seems impossible to educate the general public or government officials regarding the consequences of price controls.

ravenstine 7y ago

You can limit your exposure. Lots of people only wash their hands when they use the bathroom, if even that. They touch their faces and mouths a lot more often than they think. If they can learn to change their habits, wash their hands regularly if they go in public, and work from home more often if allowed by their employer, I'd say those are meaningful preparations.

wnkrshm 7y ago
Is there a procedure for when your face itches? Use your arm? Part of a shirt?

millettjon 7y ago

You can maximize immune system functioning by making sure you get proper nutrition and plenty of sleep.

lsllc 7y ago
Don't forget exercise.
- spking 7y ago
  Do you suppose gyms are a bad place to go during an outbreak? So far I haven't stopped going, but seems like it could be an especially nasty hotbed of airborne and surface-based viruses.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - pmoriarty 7y ago
    You don't have to go to the gym to exercise. Plenty of bodyweight exercise (like push-ups, L-sits, planks, burpees, etc) can be done at home without any equipment. Investing in a little bit of equipment, like barbells or maybe a pull-up bar, can let you do even more exercise at home.
    - mercer 7y ago
      While I could Google this, I often prefer asking people I 'know' even as tangentially as via HN comments: any suggestions for resources about this? I'd like to exercise more, and I have an entire room available, but I'm not sure where to start. I have the one-handed weight thingies, for one, but a pull-up bar is not an option. I heard one of those ball thingies with a handle is useful?
      - Barracoon 7y ago
        This app may be useful to you. I've used it for about 6 months and have been pretty happy with it. You can customize what equipment you have available so that it builds you a workout based on that. On the other side, you can look at what equipment it lists and determine what you want to buy. https://www.fitbod.me https://www.fitbod.me

qrbLPHiKpiux 7y ago

You should be. My business operation supply chains are disrupted. Without certain goods, I can't work. I am not without, but my suppliers have rationed some things I buy.

kevas 7y ago
How bad are they disrupted? Any idea when they’ll be back up? If you have backup suppliers, are they down too?

the_watcher 7y ago

I don't think OP is asking about preparing for or avoiding actually getting the disease. OP is asking about preparing for potential shortages of goods if quarantines are ultimately deployed in the US (which is what's already happening globally).

aaron695 7y ago

It's hard not to down vote this. It's wrong, but the question was about what people are doing and thinking. I think it's important to see what people think and people shouldn't be down voted for being honest. But I have to be OT and say "a really dangerous variant of the common cold" - It's killing 14% of people over 80 who get it at last estimates. And permanently hurting a lot of people over 80 as well. And we don't really do flu season as well as we could, as a society we need to step up a bit in general. We could all prepare for even the flu season more than we do. Common cold, perhaps meh.

Fnoord 7y ago

Me neither, I trust my government will if its required. Could burn some 10 kg and still be OK on weight. More concerned about rest of family.