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While I appreciate the attempt, I have some suspicion that none of these quarantine efforts, China included, will look particularly effective when we look back
by nitwit005 7y ago
While I appreciate the attempt, I have some suspicion that none of these quarantine efforts, China included, will look particularly effective when we look back on the event in a year or two.
I get the distinct feeling that many of these efforts are more about reassuring the public, than any real confidence that they can limit the spread.
- jaynetics 7y agoWell it has clearly slowed the spread in China. You couldn't cover up an exponentially growing death rate forever. Of course, it might not prevent everyone getting infected in the long run, but there might still be hospital beds available for the worst cases if it is stretched out enough.
- _-___________-_ 7y agoCorrelation isn't causation. Any number of things can slow the spread, including seasonal variation and importantly human behaviour changes.
- knzhou 7y agoHuman behavior changes like... staying inside because of a quarantine? I fail to see any behavior change that could be more impactful than that.
- _-___________-_ 7y agoStaying inside is pretty impactful, but washing hands regularly would be up there too.
- pbourke 7y agoThe epidemic curve[1] makes a pretty compelling case that the quarantine was effective. [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
- allovernow 7y agoThat curve is pure bullshit. No real life event fits a polynomial with that much precision when it is sampled so poorly. They're cooked, both intentionally and because of limitations in equipment, personel, and ability.
- SpicyLemonZest 7y agoDo you have examples of other epidemics where it was impossible to fit a quadratic? I've seen this argument a lot, but I've never seen anyone attempt to analyze how hard it actually is. I suspect that any data with positive first and second derivatives is pretty easy to fit closely to a quadratic.
- jacques_chester 7y agoThe point that's been made is that the fit is suspiciously perfect, +/- 1 person per day. Either Wuhan is populated by perfect spheres in a vacuum or the reported numbers were based on a projection, not data.
- pbourke 7y agoInteresting data points from today's presser with Dr. Bruce Aylward of WHO[1]: "Aylward pointed to an analysis from Guangdong province suggesting that, at least there, most of the infections were coming to the attention of health authorities. When the virus started to spread in Guangdong — the province where the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak began — worried people flooded fever clinics to be tested. Of 320,000 tests performed, just under 0.5% were positive for the virus at the peak of transmission there, he said — which suggests that only 1 case out of 200 was being missed. Transmission of the virus has subsided in Guangdong, and the number of positive tests at the fever clinics has declined; now only about 1 in 5,000 people tested at the fever clinics is positive for the virus, he said." [1] https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/25/new-data-from-china-buttress-fears-about-high-coronavirus-fatality-rate-who-expert-says/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/25/new-data-from-china-butt...
- 7y ago
- samastur 7y agoThe real reason, I think, for quarantines is to buy time for preparations and spread out infections to prevent overwhelming the health system. PR is certainly important for government as well, but I don't think it is much for experts working in public health field that argue for much of the same.
- JumpCrisscross 7y ago> none of these quarantine efforts, China included, will look particularly effective when we look back on the event in a year or two Containment has failed. At this point, quarantine is about slowing transmission to avoid overwhelming healthcare resources. The entire population is likely to get exposed. If it happens in a single month, that's a disaster. If it happens over a year, it's a manageable crisis.