3 ms·

> china didn't lie with the 2% death rate Keep in mind that 2% is just a guess, of people officially diagnosed the death rate is supposedly 4.8%: https://www.

> china didn't lie with the 2% death rate Keep in mind that 2% is just a guess, of people officially diagnosed the death rate is supposedly 4.8%: https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/f9134d/48_fatality_rate_50k_study/ https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/f9134d/48_fatality...

DrJaws 7y ago
We need to take into account also the asymptomatic people that will never report the disease
- raducu 7y ago
  Just as the majority of people who catch the flu don't get tested for it, only the serious cases do. So we know covid19 spreads much easier than the flu and is orders of magnitude deadlier than the flu for those that get tested/confirmed compared to those that get tested/confirmed with the flu.
  - im3w1l 7y ago
    The flu has been around for so long that I would assume we have very reliable estimates of how common it is.
puranjay 7y ago
We also have to keep in mind that that 2% rate is in a fairly developed country with robust medical infrastructure and a decently young population. You can't expect the same death rate in a country with poor medical infrastructure (say, Afghanistan) or an old and vulnerable population (say, Japan) If this thing truly hits the predicted scale, even good medical infrastructure won't help if it is stretched too thin.
timr 7y ago
That is not true. Of people officially diagnosed in Wuhan, the death rate is the 2.3% being widely reported: http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51 http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9...
- Alex3917 7y ago
  The 2.3% figure comes from here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130?guestAccessKey=bdcca6fa-a48c-4028-8406-7f3d04a3e932&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=022420 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130?gu... Note that they are looking at people who were diagnosed up through Feb 11th. It normally takes people 3 - 4 weeks to die from the disease, and it hasn't even been 3 weeks from Feb 11th, so it seems like this figure is designed as a lower bound.

DrJaws 7y ago

We need to take into account also the asymptomatic people that will never report the disease

raducu 7y ago
Just as the majority of people who catch the flu don't get tested for it, only the serious cases do. So we know covid19 spreads much easier than the flu and is orders of magnitude deadlier than the flu for those that get tested/confirmed compared to those that get tested/confirmed with the flu.
- im3w1l 7y ago
  The flu has been around for so long that I would assume we have very reliable estimates of how common it is.

puranjay 7y ago

We also have to keep in mind that that 2% rate is in a fairly developed country with robust medical infrastructure and a decently young population. You can't expect the same death rate in a country with poor medical infrastructure (say, Afghanistan) or an old and vulnerable population (say, Japan) If this thing truly hits the predicted scale, even good medical infrastructure won't help if it is stretched too thin.

timr 7y ago

That is not true. Of people officially diagnosed in Wuhan, the death rate is the 2.3% being widely reported: http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51 http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9...

Alex3917 7y ago
The 2.3% figure comes from here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130?guestAccessKey=bdcca6fa-a48c-4028-8406-7f3d04a3e932&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=022420 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130?gu... Note that they are looking at people who were diagnosed up through Feb 11th. It normally takes people 3 - 4 weeks to die from the disease, and it hasn't even been 3 weeks from Feb 11th, so it seems like this figure is designed as a lower bound.