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Is this a good time to flag HNs self-conceited hive-mind ? Two days ago, HN was full of - 'LOL this is some Alex Jones level conspiracy'. Warnings by Harvard ep

Is this a good time to flag HNs self-conceited hive-mind ? Two days ago, HN was full of - 'LOL this is some Alex Jones level conspiracy'. Warnings by Harvard epidemiologists ? No. Virologists ? No. China quarantining half the population ? No. Only the tech 'wizards' from SV, have a monopoly on truth don't you know. The Orwellian censorship that has been unleashed by these idiots will do the world much more harm in the long run than we're led to believe.

labster 7y ago
Meh, I’ve been warning people about the coronavirus for a couple weeks now. And our prepper contingent has been on it for years. The silver lining is by this time next year, we should have ~20% less throwaway accounts being created for comments like these. Many years back I read The Coming Plague about epidemiology and the disease cowboys who fight it. There is always a coming plague, known or novel. It was only a matter of time before we got a repeat of the Spanish Flu, or the Black Death. If not this time, then someday. Thinking otherwise is folly.
- puranjay 7y ago
  Our widespread abuse of antibiotics isn't helping. To think that we can go 100 years without a serious pandemic while also abusing antibiotics at an unprecedented scale betrays a sheer disregard for biology and nature.
  - rimliu 7y ago
    This is a virus. Antibiotics are for bacterial diseases
    - bencollier49 7y ago
      Although apparently some deaths are the result of opportunistic bacterial secondary infections.
    - puranjay 7y ago
      I understand that. But I'm not talking about Coronavirus in particular but the threat of a pandemic in the age of antibiotics. This one might be a virus but past pandemics like the Black Plague were bacterial in nature.
      - grepfru_it 7y ago
        Superbugs in US hospitals escaping due to increased CoronaVirus patients...
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
- tdhoot 7y ago
  > The silver lining is by this time next year, we should have ~20% less throwaway accounts being created for comments like these. I'm trying to be charitable here...am I reading this correctly?
  - petersellers 7y ago
    I think they mean that if a serious outbreak does occur, people will treat it more seriously next time (not that 20% of the population is going to die from Covid-19).
    - labster 7y ago
      It's gallows humor. It is based on the latest mortality rate I saw, but made the assumption of 100% infection rate among trolls. This is likely not true as they are often found indoors on their computers. With the 1918 influenza, 1.7% of the world population died, many of them young people. This was still very traumatic to society, despite the fact that Europe had done its level best to kill young men for the previous four years in the trenches. Right now, influenza has killed more than COVID-19, but people tend not to worry about that. Not new enough. About 300000 people a year die from influenza in a quiet year. Take your flu shots every year, people.
- Johnny555 7y ago
  The prepper contingent has been on pretty much every possible end of the world as we know it scenario, so it's kind of hard to say that they were "on this"
- hatenberg 7y ago
  The prepper contingent has predicted 250 out of the last 3 global plague events correctly.
  - antognini 7y ago
    But they only need to be right once.
    - jldugger 7y ago
      They kinda need to be right every time?
      - antognini 7y ago
        I guess it defines on what you mean by getting it right. If you mean correctly predicting the specific disease that becomes a pandemic, then sure. If you mean being alive at the end of it, then I don't think it's so bad to have a high false positive rate as long as your false negative rate is low given how enormously asymmetric the costs of a false negative are relative to a false positive.
      - silvestrov 7y ago
        Why are chickens so scared of everything? It is because if they miss the fox a single time they are dead. If they run away 999 times without needing to, it's no big deal. Making a lot of noise so other chickens run away too helps the herd. You can laugh at the chickens, but the chickens you laugh at, are the kind of animals who survives. The same are true for wolves: they run away from humans because they are too great a risk of injury compared to the size of the meal. If you aren't willing to run away when not absolutely required, you will miss the one time you really needed to.
        hatenberg 7y ago
        Except that humans are much less binary than fight or flight and capable of nuanced reactions so the entire comparison is baloney. There is a cost to living in a constant state of fear and preparation, the opportunity costs are massive.
copperx 7y ago
> Warnings by Harvard epidemiologists ? No. Actually .... https://twitter.com/mlipsitch https://twitter.com/mlipsitch
- retsibsi 7y ago
  I don't think they mean there were no such warnings, but that those warnings were ignored here. (FWIW, based on the threads I saw and participated in I don't think that's really accurate; there seemed to be a range of opinions, with plenty of people playing it down but also plenty taking it seriously.)
im3w1l 7y ago
I've read a few stories on HN over the last month, and people took it seriously.
- senordevnyc 7y ago
  I was watching all those stories and I’m pretty sure they were all flagged down pretty quickly. They’d be on page 4 with an upvote / time ratio that should put them in the top few spots on the homepage.

labster 7y ago

Meh, I’ve been warning people about the coronavirus for a couple weeks now. And our prepper contingent has been on it for years. The silver lining is by this time next year, we should have ~20% less throwaway accounts being created for comments like these. Many years back I read The Coming Plague about epidemiology and the disease cowboys who fight it. There is always a coming plague, known or novel. It was only a matter of time before we got a repeat of the Spanish Flu, or the Black Death. If not this time, then someday. Thinking otherwise is folly.

puranjay 7y ago
Our widespread abuse of antibiotics isn't helping. To think that we can go 100 years without a serious pandemic while also abusing antibiotics at an unprecedented scale betrays a sheer disregard for biology and nature.
- rimliu 7y ago
  This is a virus. Antibiotics are for bacterial diseases
  - bencollier49 7y ago
    Although apparently some deaths are the result of opportunistic bacterial secondary infections.
  - puranjay 7y ago
    I understand that. But I'm not talking about Coronavirus in particular but the threat of a pandemic in the age of antibiotics. This one might be a virus but past pandemics like the Black Plague were bacterial in nature.
    - grepfru_it 7y ago
      Superbugs in US hospitals escaping due to increased CoronaVirus patients...
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
tdhoot 7y ago
> The silver lining is by this time next year, we should have ~20% less throwaway accounts being created for comments like these. I'm trying to be charitable here...am I reading this correctly?
- petersellers 7y ago
  I think they mean that if a serious outbreak does occur, people will treat it more seriously next time (not that 20% of the population is going to die from Covid-19).
  - labster 7y ago
    It's gallows humor. It is based on the latest mortality rate I saw, but made the assumption of 100% infection rate among trolls. This is likely not true as they are often found indoors on their computers. With the 1918 influenza, 1.7% of the world population died, many of them young people. This was still very traumatic to society, despite the fact that Europe had done its level best to kill young men for the previous four years in the trenches. Right now, influenza has killed more than COVID-19, but people tend not to worry about that. Not new enough. About 300000 people a year die from influenza in a quiet year. Take your flu shots every year, people.
Johnny555 7y ago
The prepper contingent has been on pretty much every possible end of the world as we know it scenario, so it's kind of hard to say that they were "on this"
hatenberg 7y ago
The prepper contingent has predicted 250 out of the last 3 global plague events correctly.
- antognini 7y ago
  But they only need to be right once.
  - jldugger 7y ago
    They kinda need to be right every time?
    - antognini 7y ago
      I guess it defines on what you mean by getting it right. If you mean correctly predicting the specific disease that becomes a pandemic, then sure. If you mean being alive at the end of it, then I don't think it's so bad to have a high false positive rate as long as your false negative rate is low given how enormously asymmetric the costs of a false negative are relative to a false positive.
    - silvestrov 7y ago
      Why are chickens so scared of everything? It is because if they miss the fox a single time they are dead. If they run away 999 times without needing to, it's no big deal. Making a lot of noise so other chickens run away too helps the herd. You can laugh at the chickens, but the chickens you laugh at, are the kind of animals who survives. The same are true for wolves: they run away from humans because they are too great a risk of injury compared to the size of the meal. If you aren't willing to run away when not absolutely required, you will miss the one time you really needed to.
      - hatenberg 7y ago
        Except that humans are much less binary than fight or flight and capable of nuanced reactions so the entire comparison is baloney. There is a cost to living in a constant state of fear and preparation, the opportunity costs are massive.

copperx 7y ago

> Warnings by Harvard epidemiologists ? No. Actually .... https://twitter.com/mlipsitch https://twitter.com/mlipsitch

retsibsi 7y ago
I don't think they mean there were no such warnings, but that those warnings were ignored here. (FWIW, based on the threads I saw and participated in I don't think that's really accurate; there seemed to be a range of opinions, with plenty of people playing it down but also plenty taking it seriously.)

im3w1l 7y ago

I've read a few stories on HN over the last month, and people took it seriously.

senordevnyc 7y ago
I was watching all those stories and I’m pretty sure they were all flagged down pretty quickly. They’d be on page 4 with an upvote / time ratio that should put them in the top few spots on the homepage.