5 ms·

We were able to essentially starve SARS out of new people to infect. It had a 2-7 day incubation period, was not contagious before symptomatic, and spread by bo

We were able to essentially starve SARS out of new people to infect. It had a 2-7 day incubation period, was not contagious before symptomatic, and spread by bodily fluid (coughing up water droplets, spread by touch to another). COVID-19 has a 21+ day incubation period, is contagious before you're symptomatic, and is possibly airborne (I haven't heard strong confirmation of that yet, but it's definitely more virulent).

hawaiianbrah 7y ago
I didn’t think it was airborne, but also transferred via droplets
pengaru 7y ago
And apparently it can survive on a stainless steel surface for 36 hours. [0] Also from [0] however: "Sunlight will cut the virus ability to grow in half so the half-life will be 2.5 minutes and in the dark it’s about 13m to 20m. Sunlight is really good at killing viruses. That’s why I believe that Australia and the southern hemisphere will not see any great infections rates because they have lots of sunlight and they are in the middle of summer. And Wuhan and Beijing is still cold which is why there’s high infection rates. In regards to temperature, the virus can remain intact at 4 degrees or 10 degrees for a longer period of time. But at 30 degrees then you get inactivation. And High humidity the virus doesn’t like it either. That’s why I think Sars stopped around May and June in 2003 – that’s when there’s more sunlight and more humidity. The environment is a crucial factor. The environment will be unfavourable for growth around May. The evidence is to look at the common cold – it’s always during winter. So the natural environment will not be favourable in Asia in about May." I believe this is the main reason May is the deadline for containment. [0] https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/conference-call-coronavirus-expert https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/confere...
- vanniv 7y ago
  The thing to watch is the southern hemisphere. There are very few cases right now in South America or Australia -- and so far I can't find any evidence of person-to-person transmission on either continent. If the outbreak continues to fail to take hold there for even just a couple more weeks, then it seems likely that the northern-hemisphere outbreak will die down when the season ends. Other coronaviruses and most human respiratory viruses generally exhibit very strong seasonality. It seems likely that this virus will too. But, again, watch the southern hemisphere. Of course, the flu is seasonal -- and returns every year. Even if this does burn out in late spring, it may be back next year.
- blahedo 7y ago
  If it's inactivated at only 30 degrees (86F), that suggests an unconventional combat strategy of just heating buildings to that temperature—that's basically a hot summer day. We're not talking an autoclave here.
  - jmnicolas 7y ago
    It depends what they mean by "inactivation" : is it dead or does it "reactivate" at cooler temperatures ?
  - Invictus0 7y ago
    Good luck convincing a landlord to heat a building to 86 degrees in the wintertime, and then convincing tenants not to turn on the AC.
- tenpies 7y ago
  > That’s why I believe that Australia and the southern hemisphere will not see any great infections rates because they have lots of sunlight and they are in the middle of summer. And Wuhan and Beijing is still cold which is why there’s high infection rates. Wouldn't Singapore already have shown this by now? They've had to devote considerable effort towards management and it's basically summer year-round there and it's quite humid.. Winter also means people wear gloves, touch their face less, and don't sweat as much.
  - quelltext 7y ago
    SG interiors are ACed to ice age levels though.
- copperx 7y ago
  This refutes several of the claims in [0]: https://docs.google.com/document/d/17mWPx-HTE1F2RKkbJlt4VkSYaznUiJgt21nuvmu51Kc/edit https://docs.google.com/document/d/17mWPx-HTE1F2RKkbJlt4VkSY...
- cylinder 7y ago
  well I can tell you we probably don't have many 30 degree days left in the parts of Australia where most people live. tomorrow in Sydney it will be a top of 23 probably. we are heading towards Autumn quickly and I'm already seeing people sniffling on the train.
rimliu 7y ago
> COVID-19 has a 21+ day incubation period [citation needed]
- jamie_ca 7y ago
  Study suggests a median incubation period of 3 days, with a range of 0-24 days: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v... Example of a 27-day incubation: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-incubation/idUSKCN20G06W https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-incubation/i...
eidolon93 7y ago
> COVID-19 has a 21+ day incubation period I read that it's an extreme outlier. It's mostly 3-6 days.

hawaiianbrah 7y ago

I didn’t think it was airborne, but also transferred via droplets

pengaru 7y ago

And apparently it can survive on a stainless steel surface for 36 hours. [0] Also from [0] however: "Sunlight will cut the virus ability to grow in half so the half-life will be 2.5 minutes and in the dark it’s about 13m to 20m. Sunlight is really good at killing viruses. That’s why I believe that Australia and the southern hemisphere will not see any great infections rates because they have lots of sunlight and they are in the middle of summer. And Wuhan and Beijing is still cold which is why there’s high infection rates. In regards to temperature, the virus can remain intact at 4 degrees or 10 degrees for a longer period of time. But at 30 degrees then you get inactivation. And High humidity the virus doesn’t like it either. That’s why I think Sars stopped around May and June in 2003 – that’s when there’s more sunlight and more humidity. The environment is a crucial factor. The environment will be unfavourable for growth around May. The evidence is to look at the common cold – it’s always during winter. So the natural environment will not be favourable in Asia in about May." I believe this is the main reason May is the deadline for containment. [0] https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/conference-call-coronavirus-expert https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/confere...

vanniv 7y ago
The thing to watch is the southern hemisphere. There are very few cases right now in South America or Australia -- and so far I can't find any evidence of person-to-person transmission on either continent. If the outbreak continues to fail to take hold there for even just a couple more weeks, then it seems likely that the northern-hemisphere outbreak will die down when the season ends. Other coronaviruses and most human respiratory viruses generally exhibit very strong seasonality. It seems likely that this virus will too. But, again, watch the southern hemisphere. Of course, the flu is seasonal -- and returns every year. Even if this does burn out in late spring, it may be back next year.
blahedo 7y ago
If it's inactivated at only 30 degrees (86F), that suggests an unconventional combat strategy of just heating buildings to that temperature—that's basically a hot summer day. We're not talking an autoclave here.
- jmnicolas 7y ago
  It depends what they mean by "inactivation" : is it dead or does it "reactivate" at cooler temperatures ?
- Invictus0 7y ago
  Good luck convincing a landlord to heat a building to 86 degrees in the wintertime, and then convincing tenants not to turn on the AC.
tenpies 7y ago
> That’s why I believe that Australia and the southern hemisphere will not see any great infections rates because they have lots of sunlight and they are in the middle of summer. And Wuhan and Beijing is still cold which is why there’s high infection rates. Wouldn't Singapore already have shown this by now? They've had to devote considerable effort towards management and it's basically summer year-round there and it's quite humid.. Winter also means people wear gloves, touch their face less, and don't sweat as much.
- quelltext 7y ago
  SG interiors are ACed to ice age levels though.
copperx 7y ago
This refutes several of the claims in [0]: https://docs.google.com/document/d/17mWPx-HTE1F2RKkbJlt4VkSYaznUiJgt21nuvmu51Kc/edit https://docs.google.com/document/d/17mWPx-HTE1F2RKkbJlt4VkSY...
cylinder 7y ago
well I can tell you we probably don't have many 30 degree days left in the parts of Australia where most people live. tomorrow in Sydney it will be a top of 23 probably. we are heading towards Autumn quickly and I'm already seeing people sniffling on the train.

rimliu 7y ago

> COVID-19 has a 21+ day incubation period [citation needed]

jamie_ca 7y ago
Study suggests a median incubation period of 3 days, with a range of 0-24 days: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v... Example of a 27-day incubation: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-incubation/idUSKCN20G06W https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-incubation/i...

eidolon93 7y ago

> COVID-19 has a 21+ day incubation period I read that it's an extreme outlier. It's mostly 3-6 days.