8 ms·

This may seem silly but this is one of my first confirmations about how serious this is.

wyldfire 7y ago
It seems like the world is gradually acknowledging its seriousness as it continues to spread. This is certainly the highest-profile event that has considered cancellation.
- sk0g 7y ago
  Events don't really get bigger than Olympics, do they? The last ones to be cancelled were due to world wars.
  - chewz 7y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1940_Summer_Olympics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1940_Summer_Olympics
  - CaptainZapp 7y ago
    Actually they do. "The World Cup is the most prestigious association football tournament in the world, as well as the most widely viewed and followed sporting event in the world, exceeding even the Olympic Games"[1] [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup
TheSpiceIsLife 7y ago
Does anyone know if ya can catch this thing twice? Or are we expecting it to mutate similar to cold n flu viruse?
- roywiggins 7y ago
  Seems like yes, but not because it mutates, it's just that the immune response can be weak. Probably more of a risk for people with weak immune systems to start with. Everything I've read suggests that Coronaviruses are more stable, genetically speaking, than the flu. https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/its-possible-for-coronavirus-to-reinfect-recovered-patients-chinese-expert-warns/ https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/its-possible-...
  - DoingIsLearning 7y ago
    > Coronaviruses are more stable, genetically speaking, than the flu. By more stable you mean less likely to mutate? Would that mean a vaccine would be more effective in protecting against covid19 than a regular seasonaly changing flu?
    - roywiggins 7y ago
      As far as I can tell, yes: > Coronavirus non-structural proteins provide extra fidelity to replication, because they confer a proofreading function, which is lacking in RNA-dependent RNA polymerase enzymes alone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Replication https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Replication
- pengaru 7y ago
  I read in a news article that people were catching it again after recovering, IIRC it was in reference to medical professionals working in China.
- numpad0 7y ago
  No solid data on that. Everything’s rumor at this point in that front.
- flukus 7y ago
  AFAIK that's still to be determined due to the number of false positives/true negatives with the testing. Same with the incubation period. Edit - on the more worrying side of things this article (https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/14-of-recovered-coronavirus-patients-in-chinas-guangdong-tested-positive-again https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/14-of-recovered-...) was released today saying 14% of recovered patients Guangdong tested positive for the the virus. One of the more annoying things during this is that I have no idea which sources are awful tabloids and which are trustworthy like I do in the anglosphere.
  - nicolas_t 7y ago
    Straits time is reliable. It's very close to the government and a bit of a mouthpiece of it but it's not a tabloid.
- dharma1 7y ago
  It seems it's possible to catch over and over, the body stops producing antibodies fairly shortly after infection has been fought off. There isn't data about mutation yet.
blasphemous 7y ago
Given how Japan handled the Diamond Princess situation, it's a foregone conclusion they are not equipped to handle it, so more than likely the Olympics will be cancelled. They just can't risk it. Athletes/Peoples safety can't be risked, the "Olympic" brand cant be risked.
- numpad0 7y ago
  Japanese Gov’t seems yet to decide whether to go cannonball or call it off entirely, currently bit on cannonball side which is how this deadline story came up. If cancelled, this’ll be the second time an Olympic Games in Tokyo is cancelled, that I personally find hilarious, but a lot will be fuming embarrassed, especially if historians later likely is to mark it an uneducated overreaction.
- baddox 7y ago
  Wouldn’t not canceling it when they should have be a better example of them not being able to handle the situation?
- mattrp 7y ago
  There’s that plus all the qualifying events globally that have to take place between now and then...
- Drakar1903 7y ago
  Athletes are one thing. The international flocking of people to one already overcrowded location is another.
thwer234324 7y ago
Is this a good time to flag HNs self-conceited hive-mind ? Two days ago, HN was full of - 'LOL this is some Alex Jones level conspiracy'. Warnings by Harvard epidemiologists ? No. Virologists ? No. China quarantining half the population ? No. Only the tech 'wizards' from SV, have a monopoly on truth don't you know. The Orwellian censorship that has been unleashed by these idiots will do the world much more harm in the long run than we're led to believe.
- labster 7y ago
  Meh, I’ve been warning people about the coronavirus for a couple weeks now. And our prepper contingent has been on it for years. The silver lining is by this time next year, we should have ~20% less throwaway accounts being created for comments like these. Many years back I read The Coming Plague about epidemiology and the disease cowboys who fight it. There is always a coming plague, known or novel. It was only a matter of time before we got a repeat of the Spanish Flu, or the Black Death. If not this time, then someday. Thinking otherwise is folly.
  - puranjay 7y ago
    Our widespread abuse of antibiotics isn't helping. To think that we can go 100 years without a serious pandemic while also abusing antibiotics at an unprecedented scale betrays a sheer disregard for biology and nature.
    - rimliu 7y ago
      This is a virus. Antibiotics are for bacterial diseases
      - bencollier49 7y ago
        Although apparently some deaths are the result of opportunistic bacterial secondary infections.
      - puranjay 7y ago
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
iliveinchina 7y ago
Your base case scenario should be that this will be globally widespread. The tipping point was when Iran became an epicenter. This is problematic because of its porous borders with countries with weak government. The good news is the virus is not too risky for an individual, excepting those who are old and with pre-existing conditions. The bad news is that there will likely be a lot of deaths in aggregate, globally. The other bad news is that the virus has been highly disruptive socially and economically in every country when the infection rate has started to climb. The best we can do is calmly make preparations for how things will change.
- puranjay 7y ago
  The biggest impact will be on global supply chains. Also paints into sharp contrast our over reliance on China. A side project I'm working on uses a key component from a Chinese manufacturer. Their factory has been shut indefinitely and we are 40 days behind schedule. My rep told me that while they've been working on the marketing/tech side of things from home, the factory can't open since workers are simply refusing to show up, and neither coercion or incentives seem to help.
  - irq11 7y ago
    People are eventually going to realize that the economic costs of this reaction far exceeds the cost of letting it spread, and things will slowly return to normal. The only real uncertainty at this point is if the HN/reddit fever-dream scenario of overwhelmed hospitals plays out, outside of Wuhan. So far, it has not.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
- xbmcuser 7y ago
  I think many people here on hackernews are being stupid that they are healthy adults so they don't need to worry. Even if you don't die you will be out of the work force for 2-3 weeks either because you are sick or quarantined. You could pass the infection to your children, parents Grand parents who might not be able to fight off the infection and die. Many people get flu vaccines or over the years have built up some immunity. This virus is new so no one has any immunity most people will get infected only some might die but the many that get sick will be out of the work force. You guys are aware of tech productions shortages but a lot of other goods like garments we wear come from China. If they are unable to start back up soon world will be facing shortages of many other items prices will start going up soon. Other countries have started hitting capacity production for garments as China is out and they still can't meet the demand.

It seems like the world is gradually acknowledging its seriousness as it continues to spread. This is certainly the highest-profile event that has considered cancellation.

sk0g 7y ago
Events don't really get bigger than Olympics, do they? The last ones to be cancelled were due to world wars.
- chewz 7y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1940_Summer_Olympics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1940_Summer_Olympics
- CaptainZapp 7y ago
  Actually they do. "The World Cup is the most prestigious association football tournament in the world, as well as the most widely viewed and followed sporting event in the world, exceeding even the Olympic Games"[1] [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup

TheSpiceIsLife 7y ago

Does anyone know if ya can catch this thing twice? Or are we expecting it to mutate similar to cold n flu viruse?

roywiggins 7y ago
Seems like yes, but not because it mutates, it's just that the immune response can be weak. Probably more of a risk for people with weak immune systems to start with. Everything I've read suggests that Coronaviruses are more stable, genetically speaking, than the flu. https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/its-possible-for-coronavirus-to-reinfect-recovered-patients-chinese-expert-warns/ https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/its-possible-...
- DoingIsLearning 7y ago
  > Coronaviruses are more stable, genetically speaking, than the flu. By more stable you mean less likely to mutate? Would that mean a vaccine would be more effective in protecting against covid19 than a regular seasonaly changing flu?
  - roywiggins 7y ago
    As far as I can tell, yes: > Coronavirus non-structural proteins provide extra fidelity to replication, because they confer a proofreading function, which is lacking in RNA-dependent RNA polymerase enzymes alone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Replication https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Replication
pengaru 7y ago
I read in a news article that people were catching it again after recovering, IIRC it was in reference to medical professionals working in China.
numpad0 7y ago
No solid data on that. Everything’s rumor at this point in that front.
flukus 7y ago
AFAIK that's still to be determined due to the number of false positives/true negatives with the testing. Same with the incubation period. Edit - on the more worrying side of things this article (https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/14-of-recovered-coronavirus-patients-in-chinas-guangdong-tested-positive-again https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/14-of-recovered-...) was released today saying 14% of recovered patients Guangdong tested positive for the the virus. One of the more annoying things during this is that I have no idea which sources are awful tabloids and which are trustworthy like I do in the anglosphere.
- nicolas_t 7y ago
  Straits time is reliable. It's very close to the government and a bit of a mouthpiece of it but it's not a tabloid.
dharma1 7y ago
It seems it's possible to catch over and over, the body stops producing antibodies fairly shortly after infection has been fought off. There isn't data about mutation yet.

blasphemous 7y ago

Given how Japan handled the Diamond Princess situation, it's a foregone conclusion they are not equipped to handle it, so more than likely the Olympics will be cancelled. They just can't risk it. Athletes/Peoples safety can't be risked, the "Olympic" brand cant be risked.

numpad0 7y ago
Japanese Gov’t seems yet to decide whether to go cannonball or call it off entirely, currently bit on cannonball side which is how this deadline story came up. If cancelled, this’ll be the second time an Olympic Games in Tokyo is cancelled, that I personally find hilarious, but a lot will be fuming embarrassed, especially if historians later likely is to mark it an uneducated overreaction.
baddox 7y ago
Wouldn’t not canceling it when they should have be a better example of them not being able to handle the situation?
mattrp 7y ago
There’s that plus all the qualifying events globally that have to take place between now and then...
Drakar1903 7y ago
Athletes are one thing. The international flocking of people to one already overcrowded location is another.

thwer234324 7y ago

Is this a good time to flag HNs self-conceited hive-mind ? Two days ago, HN was full of - 'LOL this is some Alex Jones level conspiracy'. Warnings by Harvard epidemiologists ? No. Virologists ? No. China quarantining half the population ? No. Only the tech 'wizards' from SV, have a monopoly on truth don't you know. The Orwellian censorship that has been unleashed by these idiots will do the world much more harm in the long run than we're led to believe.

labster 7y ago
Meh, I’ve been warning people about the coronavirus for a couple weeks now. And our prepper contingent has been on it for years. The silver lining is by this time next year, we should have ~20% less throwaway accounts being created for comments like these. Many years back I read The Coming Plague about epidemiology and the disease cowboys who fight it. There is always a coming plague, known or novel. It was only a matter of time before we got a repeat of the Spanish Flu, or the Black Death. If not this time, then someday. Thinking otherwise is folly.
- puranjay 7y ago
  Our widespread abuse of antibiotics isn't helping. To think that we can go 100 years without a serious pandemic while also abusing antibiotics at an unprecedented scale betrays a sheer disregard for biology and nature.
  - rimliu 7y ago
    This is a virus. Antibiotics are for bacterial diseases
    - bencollier49 7y ago
      Although apparently some deaths are the result of opportunistic bacterial secondary infections.
    - puranjay 7y ago

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

iliveinchina 7y ago

Your base case scenario should be that this will be globally widespread. The tipping point was when Iran became an epicenter. This is problematic because of its porous borders with countries with weak government. The good news is the virus is not too risky for an individual, excepting those who are old and with pre-existing conditions. The bad news is that there will likely be a lot of deaths in aggregate, globally. The other bad news is that the virus has been highly disruptive socially and economically in every country when the infection rate has started to climb. The best we can do is calmly make preparations for how things will change.

puranjay 7y ago
The biggest impact will be on global supply chains. Also paints into sharp contrast our over reliance on China. A side project I'm working on uses a key component from a Chinese manufacturer. Their factory has been shut indefinitely and we are 40 days behind schedule. My rep told me that while they've been working on the marketing/tech side of things from home, the factory can't open since workers are simply refusing to show up, and neither coercion or incentives seem to help.
- irq11 7y ago
  People are eventually going to realize that the economic costs of this reaction far exceeds the cost of letting it spread, and things will slowly return to normal. The only real uncertainty at this point is if the HN/reddit fever-dream scenario of overwhelmed hospitals plays out, outside of Wuhan. So far, it has not.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
xbmcuser 7y ago
I think many people here on hackernews are being stupid that they are healthy adults so they don't need to worry. Even if you don't die you will be out of the work force for 2-3 weeks either because you are sick or quarantined. You could pass the infection to your children, parents Grand parents who might not be able to fight off the infection and die. Many people get flu vaccines or over the years have built up some immunity. This virus is new so no one has any immunity most people will get infected only some might die but the many that get sick will be out of the work force. You guys are aware of tech productions shortages but a lot of other goods like garments we wear come from China. If they are unable to start back up soon world will be facing shortages of many other items prices will start going up soon. Other countries have started hitting capacity production for garments as China is out and they still can't meet the demand.