4 ms·

I think this virus is getting sincerely underestimated in our echo chamber, and it's only because the reported cases in the US have been low. If Italy has multi

I think this virus is getting sincerely underestimated in our echo chamber, and it's only because the reported cases in the US have been low. If Italy has multiple quarantine zones, think about how many travelers are coming back from Italy who are probably infected but don't even know it yet. I hope I'm wrong.

anthonypasq 7y ago
>I think this virus is getting sincerely underestimated in our echo chamber this is an incredibly hot take. It seems to me that the majority of the media along with hackernews consistently contribute to unsubstantiated fear mongering
almost_usual 7y ago
I don’t believe it is, the virus can be quarantined efficiently if the country is responsive to the outbreaks. Vietnam had early outbreaks, quarantined areas via a ring system, and the country has contained the virus very well. This is a country that is poorer than South Korea, Japan, or Italy and shares a border with China.
- ergothus 7y ago
  I'm not trying to fear-monger here, so please don't read that as my intent. Are you sure though? An "outbreak" is detected by someone having symptoms, by which time they've infected others. If you're an in area with lots of travelers, by the time you have an outbreak, it's already moved on. I'm watching South Korea - they have plenty of travel, a good population, and an effective government. If they can contain it, that's a good sign, if not, likely a portent of what the western world can expect if carriers become more numerous. So far too early to say, but that's where I'm looking. (And I'm no expert at all, so if anyone has reasons that I'm looking in the wrong place as a bellweather, please share). My real issue is the lack of good info. We've gotten an R0, but I've not heard anyone express confidence in the results of infection (another commenter suggested 20% require respiratory assistance, but is that of flat infected or of those that are detected as infected in part BECAUSE their symptoms are serious?)
  - almost_usual 7y ago
    Vietnam detected a presence outside of Hanoi and quarantined an entire town of 10,000 over a week ago. There haven’t been any new cases since. https://news.yahoo.com/vietnam-quarantines-village-10-000-075838068.html https://news.yahoo.com/vietnam-quarantines-village-10-000-07... They are now quarantining all travelers from South Korea or denying them entry. The country is known for operating a ‘brutal’ but efficient quarantine.
  - Filligree 7y ago
    > another commenter suggested 20% require respiratory assistance, but is that of flat infected or of those that are detected as infected in part BECAUSE their symptoms are serious? The latter. Unfortunately we don't know what fraction of cases are detected, but it's believed to be around 10%.
    - jacquesm 7y ago
      Interesting in this context is to look at the postmortem of the previous pandemic in 2009, the number of cases initially confirmed and the final tally over the same period once all the facts were in. The relevant wikipedia bit: "A flu follow-up study done in September 2010, found that "the risk of most serious complications was not elevated in adults or children."[31] In a 5 August 2011 PLoS ONE article, researchers estimated that the 2009 H1N1 global infection rate was 11% to 21%, lower than what was previously expected.[32] However, by 2012, research showed that as many as 579,000 people could have been killed by the disease, as only those fatalities confirmed by laboratory testing were included in the original number, and meant that many of those without access to health facilities went uncounted. The majority of these deaths occurred in Africa and Southeast Asia. Experts, including the WHO, have agreed that an estimated 284,500 people were killed by the disease, much higher than the initial death toll." From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic
- MiroF 7y ago
  It is far too early to conclude that Vietnam has contained "very well" and very possible that cases in a very poor country like Vietnam could be missed
  - almost_usual 7y ago
    Vietnam was the first country to end SARS and is known for operating a very efficient but ‘brutal’ quarantine. You live or die staying where you are.
- Ma8ee 7y ago
  Maybe it’s easier in a poor country. People just don’t travel as much.
  - almost_usual 7y ago
    There are a ton of tourists that travel to Vietnam.
    - Ma8ee 7y ago
      Yes, but it doesn’t impact the tourists very much if they can’t travel there as someone who relies on travel for business or to meet their family.
alach11 7y ago
I've commonly heard people comparing this virus to the flu. There's a pretty good post on reddit comparing them. The summary is that Covid-19 is 20x as deadly, requires 10x as many hospitalizations, and is more transmissible. https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f8k2nj/why_sarscov2_is_not_just_the_flu_with_sources/ https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f8k2nj/why_sar...
- dr_dshiv 7y ago
  But that's only if you believe that the number of measured cases are the number of actual cases. They would need to randomly sample the population for that to be true. My guess is that most people just get a small cold from this virus -- and some have a big reaction. So we really don't know the death rate.
seek3r00 7y ago
True, and I’m surprised the POTUS has yet to announce the closing of air traffic from and to Italy. Although, the zones under lockdown are 10 towns in Lombardy (the region where Milan is), and I guess they’re not the cities most visited by tourists. Also, there is no information about the patient zero, but Lombardy (and especially Milan) has a huge presence of Chinese citizens and I am not surprised it all started there.
- duckqlz 7y ago
  Viruses do not discriminate based on race and not all travellers who have brought the virus abroad have been Chinese. Saying things like “there are a lot of Chinese so I’m not surprised” is a very dangerous path to go down. Sad to see this on HN
  - SAI_Peregrinus 7y ago
    Viruses don't discriminate, but immigrants (and descendants of immigrants) do tend to visit their original home countries (and/or ancestor's home countries) more than the rest of the population. People of Chinese descent living in Italy are more likely to visit China than people of Italian descent in Italy (or Irish or whatever non-Chinese descent). Areas with high concentrations of Chinese people are thus more likely to have been exposed to a traveler than some other areas. There's nothing racist about this. Of course hot spots for transmission like airports will spread it beyond the Chinese communities.
  - pasquinelli 7y ago
    Viruses can discriminate by race.
  - SamReidHughes 7y ago
    Indians got wiped out by Smallpox, for instance.
  - parliament32 7y ago
    It's not about race at all -- China isn't exactly a vacation destination; very few non-Chinese visit China. Considering the lunar new year was timed right with this outbreak (and the Chinese tradition to visit relatives on LNY), it's not ridiculous to assume that areas with higher Chinese populations have a higher chance of having the virus. This whole outrage culture thing needs to go away.
SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
People don't worry about that because it'd be good news. The virus has been circulating for a while now - if there were a huge number of currently unknown infections, that would strongly suggest that the virus isn't as severe as currently believed. There's no way we could fail to notice disease clusters hospitalizing as many people as in Wuhan.
dr_dshiv 7y ago
Why do you say that? It's essentially the cold with a new name. The death rates are deeply exaggerated,since there is no random sampling in the population to establish the number of actual cases. It is the old and sick dying -- and dying at far lower rates than the actual flu, at the moment.
- jacquesm 7y ago
  The cold is caused by an entirely different class of viruses.
  - dr_dshiv 7y ago
    Not true. The common cold is caused by varieties of rhinovirus and coronavirus. "Rhinoviruses and coronaviruses are recognized as the major causes of the common cold syndrome" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/12001053/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/12001053/
    - jacquesm 7y ago
      The common cold can be caused by a corona virus, but not this corona virus. They are different enough that this particular corona virus may or may not cause people to have mild, common cold like symptoms but so far there is very little evidence for that. To suggest that they are similar other than in structure is, frankly, ridiculous. So no, this is not 'essentially the cold with a new name'. Stop spreading bullshit, if you manage to convince people of this and they end up having symptoms you might get them killed or avoid care/quarantine. You are roughly equating being hit by a truck vs being hit by a bicycle because 'both have wheels' and therefore the impact is the same. The genetic payload is new to us and the result of exposing our immune system to a new virus (even though it is structurally similar to another virus) is what it is all about. The only reason the cold has as little impact as it does is because we have been exposed to it and small variations on it for a long time. Our immune systems 'know' the signature of the common cold virus by now. If our immune systems would recognize the new virus using the same mechanism you wouldn't need improvised ICU's for thousands of people. Anyway, after this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22406556 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22406556 my assumption is that you're here to troll anyway.
tomjen3 7y ago
I was laughing at Sars and Swineflu/Birdflu. I was laughing at this 3-4 days ago. I am not laughing anymore What China is doing in Wohan is insane, even for China. The only way it makes sense is if they are looking at numbers several magnitudes higher than we are (e.g if you are looking at Black Death/Spanish flue numbers, not less than normal flue numbers), which would indicate that the Chinese government is lying. Cases in Italy are exploding and the US are only testing people who are showing up with symptoms who have recently traveled from Wuhan (ie not China in general, not Vietnam, not Hong Kong), despite good evidence that the decease can travel from human to human (which does not quite mean it is aerosolized) so we simply do not know how bad the US is doing at the moment. Supply lines are already under pressure. In some places in China vehicular traffic is less than 5% of what it normally is. I don't think the world is ending, and this is not going to be another Black Death or even a Spanish Flu (we have much better tech, world citizes are not filled with rats and all sources indicates that this Flu is mostly bad for the old and the inferm, unlike 1920) but I expect this one to be really bad.

anthonypasq 7y ago

>I think this virus is getting sincerely underestimated in our echo chamber this is an incredibly hot take. It seems to me that the majority of the media along with hackernews consistently contribute to unsubstantiated fear mongering

almost_usual 7y ago

I don’t believe it is, the virus can be quarantined efficiently if the country is responsive to the outbreaks. Vietnam had early outbreaks, quarantined areas via a ring system, and the country has contained the virus very well. This is a country that is poorer than South Korea, Japan, or Italy and shares a border with China.

ergothus 7y ago
I'm not trying to fear-monger here, so please don't read that as my intent. Are you sure though? An "outbreak" is detected by someone having symptoms, by which time they've infected others. If you're an in area with lots of travelers, by the time you have an outbreak, it's already moved on. I'm watching South Korea - they have plenty of travel, a good population, and an effective government. If they can contain it, that's a good sign, if not, likely a portent of what the western world can expect if carriers become more numerous. So far too early to say, but that's where I'm looking. (And I'm no expert at all, so if anyone has reasons that I'm looking in the wrong place as a bellweather, please share). My real issue is the lack of good info. We've gotten an R0, but I've not heard anyone express confidence in the results of infection (another commenter suggested 20% require respiratory assistance, but is that of flat infected or of those that are detected as infected in part BECAUSE their symptoms are serious?)
- almost_usual 7y ago
  Vietnam detected a presence outside of Hanoi and quarantined an entire town of 10,000 over a week ago. There haven’t been any new cases since. https://news.yahoo.com/vietnam-quarantines-village-10-000-075838068.html https://news.yahoo.com/vietnam-quarantines-village-10-000-07... They are now quarantining all travelers from South Korea or denying them entry. The country is known for operating a ‘brutal’ but efficient quarantine.
- Filligree 7y ago
  > another commenter suggested 20% require respiratory assistance, but is that of flat infected or of those that are detected as infected in part BECAUSE their symptoms are serious? The latter. Unfortunately we don't know what fraction of cases are detected, but it's believed to be around 10%.
  - jacquesm 7y ago
    Interesting in this context is to look at the postmortem of the previous pandemic in 2009, the number of cases initially confirmed and the final tally over the same period once all the facts were in. The relevant wikipedia bit: "A flu follow-up study done in September 2010, found that "the risk of most serious complications was not elevated in adults or children."[31] In a 5 August 2011 PLoS ONE article, researchers estimated that the 2009 H1N1 global infection rate was 11% to 21%, lower than what was previously expected.[32] However, by 2012, research showed that as many as 579,000 people could have been killed by the disease, as only those fatalities confirmed by laboratory testing were included in the original number, and meant that many of those without access to health facilities went uncounted. The majority of these deaths occurred in Africa and Southeast Asia. Experts, including the WHO, have agreed that an estimated 284,500 people were killed by the disease, much higher than the initial death toll." From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic
MiroF 7y ago
It is far too early to conclude that Vietnam has contained "very well" and very possible that cases in a very poor country like Vietnam could be missed
- almost_usual 7y ago
  Vietnam was the first country to end SARS and is known for operating a very efficient but ‘brutal’ quarantine. You live or die staying where you are.
Ma8ee 7y ago
Maybe it’s easier in a poor country. People just don’t travel as much.
- almost_usual 7y ago
  There are a ton of tourists that travel to Vietnam.
  - Ma8ee 7y ago
    Yes, but it doesn’t impact the tourists very much if they can’t travel there as someone who relies on travel for business or to meet their family.

alach11 7y ago

I've commonly heard people comparing this virus to the flu. There's a pretty good post on reddit comparing them. The summary is that Covid-19 is 20x as deadly, requires 10x as many hospitalizations, and is more transmissible. https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f8k2nj/why_sarscov2_is_not_just_the_flu_with_sources/ https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f8k2nj/why_sar...

dr_dshiv 7y ago
But that's only if you believe that the number of measured cases are the number of actual cases. They would need to randomly sample the population for that to be true. My guess is that most people just get a small cold from this virus -- and some have a big reaction. So we really don't know the death rate.

seek3r00 7y ago

True, and I’m surprised the POTUS has yet to announce the closing of air traffic from and to Italy. Although, the zones under lockdown are 10 towns in Lombardy (the region where Milan is), and I guess they’re not the cities most visited by tourists. Also, there is no information about the patient zero, but Lombardy (and especially Milan) has a huge presence of Chinese citizens and I am not surprised it all started there.

duckqlz 7y ago
Viruses do not discriminate based on race and not all travellers who have brought the virus abroad have been Chinese. Saying things like “there are a lot of Chinese so I’m not surprised” is a very dangerous path to go down. Sad to see this on HN
- SAI_Peregrinus 7y ago
  Viruses don't discriminate, but immigrants (and descendants of immigrants) do tend to visit their original home countries (and/or ancestor's home countries) more than the rest of the population. People of Chinese descent living in Italy are more likely to visit China than people of Italian descent in Italy (or Irish or whatever non-Chinese descent). Areas with high concentrations of Chinese people are thus more likely to have been exposed to a traveler than some other areas. There's nothing racist about this. Of course hot spots for transmission like airports will spread it beyond the Chinese communities.
- pasquinelli 7y ago
  Viruses can discriminate by race.
- SamReidHughes 7y ago
  Indians got wiped out by Smallpox, for instance.
- parliament32 7y ago
  It's not about race at all -- China isn't exactly a vacation destination; very few non-Chinese visit China. Considering the lunar new year was timed right with this outbreak (and the Chinese tradition to visit relatives on LNY), it's not ridiculous to assume that areas with higher Chinese populations have a higher chance of having the virus. This whole outrage culture thing needs to go away.

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago

People don't worry about that because it'd be good news. The virus has been circulating for a while now - if there were a huge number of currently unknown infections, that would strongly suggest that the virus isn't as severe as currently believed. There's no way we could fail to notice disease clusters hospitalizing as many people as in Wuhan.

dr_dshiv 7y ago

Why do you say that? It's essentially the cold with a new name. The death rates are deeply exaggerated,since there is no random sampling in the population to establish the number of actual cases. It is the old and sick dying -- and dying at far lower rates than the actual flu, at the moment.

jacquesm 7y ago
The cold is caused by an entirely different class of viruses.
- dr_dshiv 7y ago
  Not true. The common cold is caused by varieties of rhinovirus and coronavirus. "Rhinoviruses and coronaviruses are recognized as the major causes of the common cold syndrome" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/12001053/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/12001053/
  - jacquesm 7y ago
    The common cold can be caused by a corona virus, but not this corona virus. They are different enough that this particular corona virus may or may not cause people to have mild, common cold like symptoms but so far there is very little evidence for that. To suggest that they are similar other than in structure is, frankly, ridiculous. So no, this is not 'essentially the cold with a new name'. Stop spreading bullshit, if you manage to convince people of this and they end up having symptoms you might get them killed or avoid care/quarantine. You are roughly equating being hit by a truck vs being hit by a bicycle because 'both have wheels' and therefore the impact is the same. The genetic payload is new to us and the result of exposing our immune system to a new virus (even though it is structurally similar to another virus) is what it is all about. The only reason the cold has as little impact as it does is because we have been exposed to it and small variations on it for a long time. Our immune systems 'know' the signature of the common cold virus by now. If our immune systems would recognize the new virus using the same mechanism you wouldn't need improvised ICU's for thousands of people. Anyway, after this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22406556 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22406556 my assumption is that you're here to troll anyway.

tomjen3 7y ago

I was laughing at Sars and Swineflu/Birdflu. I was laughing at this 3-4 days ago. I am not laughing anymore What China is doing in Wohan is insane, even for China. The only way it makes sense is if they are looking at numbers several magnitudes higher than we are (e.g if you are looking at Black Death/Spanish flue numbers, not less than normal flue numbers), which would indicate that the Chinese government is lying. Cases in Italy are exploding and the US are only testing people who are showing up with symptoms who have recently traveled from Wuhan (ie not China in general, not Vietnam, not Hong Kong), despite good evidence that the decease can travel from human to human (which does not quite mean it is aerosolized) so we simply do not know how bad the US is doing at the moment. Supply lines are already under pressure. In some places in China vehicular traffic is less than 5% of what it normally is. I don't think the world is ending, and this is not going to be another Black Death or even a Spanish Flu (we have much better tech, world citizes are not filled with rats and all sources indicates that this Flu is mostly bad for the old and the inferm, unlike 1920) but I expect this one to be really bad.