3 ms·

Let’s say 40% of the people in the world get it and a 1% fatality rate: That 30 million dead, and probably another 300 million hospitalized and maybe 50 millio

Let’s say 40% of the people in the world get it and a 1% fatality rate: That 30 million dead, and probably another 300 million hospitalized and maybe 50 million that need icu care. Should probably go without saying that we don’t have the ICU beds to handle that in the western world, let alone in developing countries. We also haven’t had anything like the Spanish flu in the US since we’ve had the modern health insurance system. Is blue cross going to have the resources to pay for all those extra hospital visits? What about all the long term side effects from the millions of people that had acute respiratory failure and survived. edit: Also something else to consider -- what if this goes epidemic in the US during the elections this year? They'll have to cancel rallies, campaign events, maybe even the party conventions.

wonderwonder 7y ago
Building on this, what happens if grocery stores shut down as the Just in Time stocking infrastructure breaks down as truckers / workers stop going to work?
- DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
  the army will need to step in to keep peace. you are probably looking at a curfews to prevent looting. edit: probably also rationing: Canned goods are starting to look a bit bare at our local supermarket in Florence, about 200km from Italy's COVID19 cases. https://twitter.com/JacekWork/status/1231900845802954757 https://twitter.com/JacekWork/status/1231900845802954757 edit-2: Residents in Milan, Italy have raided the grocery stores as panic about COVID19 and city lockdowns sets in. https://twitter.com/RuralCdn/status/1231969752890957824 https://twitter.com/RuralCdn/status/1231969752890957824
adventured 7y ago
And the West is very old, I would expect that to offset the highly developed healthcare systems and resources there. Median ages: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/fields/343rank.html https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world... Countries in the West over 40 at the median: Germany, Italy, Greece, Slovenia, Portugal, Austria, Lithuania, Latvia, Croatia, Spain, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Serbia, Bosnia, Czech, Finland, Netherlands, Switzerland, Romania, Denmark, Poland, Canada, Slovakia, France, Belgium, Ukraine, Sweden, Belarus, UK, Russia Germany has half its 83 million population over 48 years of age. Italy is the 5th oldest country at the median. Covid will hit very hard against older populations.
- DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
  there is a graph here. don't know how accurate that is though (sample sizes and the fact that the way it is counted has been revised a couple of times already): https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...
tonyedgecombe 7y ago
>They'll have to cancel rallies, campaign events, maybe even the party conventions. Every cloud has a silver lining :) >Is blue cross going to have the resources to pay for all those extra hospital visits? If the government ends up bailing them out this could be a step towards single payer health care in the US.

wonderwonder 7y ago

Building on this, what happens if grocery stores shut down as the Just in Time stocking infrastructure breaks down as truckers / workers stop going to work?

DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
the army will need to step in to keep peace. you are probably looking at a curfews to prevent looting. edit: probably also rationing: Canned goods are starting to look a bit bare at our local supermarket in Florence, about 200km from Italy's COVID19 cases. https://twitter.com/JacekWork/status/1231900845802954757 https://twitter.com/JacekWork/status/1231900845802954757 edit-2: Residents in Milan, Italy have raided the grocery stores as panic about COVID19 and city lockdowns sets in. https://twitter.com/RuralCdn/status/1231969752890957824 https://twitter.com/RuralCdn/status/1231969752890957824

adventured 7y ago

And the West is very old, I would expect that to offset the highly developed healthcare systems and resources there. Median ages: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/fields/343rank.html https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world... Countries in the West over 40 at the median: Germany, Italy, Greece, Slovenia, Portugal, Austria, Lithuania, Latvia, Croatia, Spain, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Serbia, Bosnia, Czech, Finland, Netherlands, Switzerland, Romania, Denmark, Poland, Canada, Slovakia, France, Belgium, Ukraine, Sweden, Belarus, UK, Russia Germany has half its 83 million population over 48 years of age. Italy is the 5th oldest country at the median. Covid will hit very hard against older populations.

DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
there is a graph here. don't know how accurate that is though (sample sizes and the fact that the way it is counted has been revised a couple of times already): https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...

tonyedgecombe 7y ago

>They'll have to cancel rallies, campaign events, maybe even the party conventions. Every cloud has a silver lining :) >Is blue cross going to have the resources to pay for all those extra hospital visits? If the government ends up bailing them out this could be a step towards single payer health care in the US.