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I noticed the same thing. As numbers continue to grow, we run the real risk of even top of the line health care systems being overwhelmed and people passing fro

I noticed the same thing. As numbers continue to grow, we run the real risk of even top of the line health care systems being overwhelmed and people passing from lack of access to care. Couple numbers that jump out for me are China with ~3% mortality rate but also rumors of these numbers being vastly unreported. Iran with a 19% mortality rate (on a small scale)! Also the mortality rate appears to be 3.2% where for a while it was in the low 2s. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries If this grows into a true pandemic, it will to the best of my knowledge be the first stress test of our Just-In-Time style of inventory management at grocery stores.

mytailorisrich 7y ago
In Iran I suspect that either the actual number of cases is much higher than currently reported/known or that the people infected were mostly elderly, or both.
rossdavidh 7y ago
China also reports about 8 recovered for every 1 death, so even if their numbers are accurately reported, there are a lot more who have done neither as of yet, and about 11% of them will die. Which would be a lot more deaths.
- znpy 7y ago
  China also has a relatively old population, due to their one child policy. And age is a risk factor for covid-19. Italy on the other hand... Oh, nevermind.
nicolapede 7y ago
Given that it can take N weeks to die, wouldn't it make sense to calculate the mortality rate at a given time t as the number of deaths at time t divided by the number of reported infected people at time t-Nweeks ? (I am using N =3 for my back-of-the-envelope calculations).
- SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
  No, since not everyone who dies will have had a confirmed case 3 weeks back - both because the actual time the disease takes is (almost surely) variable and because detection isn't perfect. The mortality rate in Iran is infinity by that metric, for example.
makomk 7y ago
Iran's mortality rate is almost certainly much lower than 19%, since there's reason to believe the total infection rate is much higher than they're claiming. We wouldn't expect nearly so many travellers from Iran to be infected if coronavirus was as rare there as their figures make it out to be.

mytailorisrich 7y ago

In Iran I suspect that either the actual number of cases is much higher than currently reported/known or that the people infected were mostly elderly, or both.

rossdavidh 7y ago

China also reports about 8 recovered for every 1 death, so even if their numbers are accurately reported, there are a lot more who have done neither as of yet, and about 11% of them will die. Which would be a lot more deaths.

znpy 7y ago
China also has a relatively old population, due to their one child policy. And age is a risk factor for covid-19. Italy on the other hand... Oh, nevermind.

nicolapede 7y ago

Given that it can take N weeks to die, wouldn't it make sense to calculate the mortality rate at a given time t as the number of deaths at time t divided by the number of reported infected people at time t-Nweeks ? (I am using N =3 for my back-of-the-envelope calculations).

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
No, since not everyone who dies will have had a confirmed case 3 weeks back - both because the actual time the disease takes is (almost surely) variable and because detection isn't perfect. The mortality rate in Iran is infinity by that metric, for example.

makomk 7y ago

Iran's mortality rate is almost certainly much lower than 19%, since there's reason to believe the total infection rate is much higher than they're claiming. We wouldn't expect nearly so many travellers from Iran to be infected if coronavirus was as rare there as their figures make it out to be.