5 ms·

Interesting paper. I haven't dug into the methods/data in depth. But the gist of their interpretation is: - Out of the initial 41 cases, 27 were linked to the

Interesting paper. I haven't dug into the methods/data in depth. But the gist of their interpretation is: - Out of the initial 41 cases, 27 were linked to the seafood market. The first identified cases + 12 others had no link to the market. - Phylogenetic analysis suggests two potential ancestral haplotypes. None of the seafood market haplotypes were the two potential ancestral. - The very first initial cases (family from Shenzhen) was one of the two potential ancestral haplotype. I am a bioinformatics phd and know enough about phylogenetic analysis to say that it can sometimes be ambiguous and have some elements of subjectivity, especially with low sample sizes. So I wouldn't be too fast to jump on these results. However, I haven't gone through the data in detail to really give a good opinion.

JPLeRouzic 7y ago
Thanks, it is really helpful. If the patient zero is from Shenzen, doesn't that weaken the hypothesis of an origin in a bat virus? (Population density = 6,100/km2)
- daemonk 7y ago
  I don't know enough about the cases. But initially identified cases doesn't equate to patient zero. I think it was just the first case chronologically identified.
- jacquesm 7y ago
  There is a fair chance patient zero simply recovered and was never identified as carrier.
zoomablemind 7y ago
The paper cites GISAID db as their datasource. I wonder if at present the db includes sufficient number of early samples prior to the mentioned Dec 8), given the widely described massive efforts by official China to silence the early reports of the outbreak [0]? 0: https://www.businessinsider.com/china-information-crackdown-on-wuhan-coronavirus-2020-1 https://www.businessinsider.com/china-information-crackdown-...
wpasc 7y ago
Thanks for your insight! If not from the seafood market, is it possible to speculate (in an informed way) of what the source may have been? When novel viruses break into human populations, is some form of animal contact generally the culprit? Is something like a bat sneezing near you (I have no idea if bats sneeze) with an airborne virus sufficient to transfer to a human?
- cjbprime 7y ago
  > Is something like a bat sneezing near you (I have no idea if bats sneeze) with an airborne virus sufficient to transfer to a human? I think the theory for SARS went something like -- lots of live animals together in a market, bat guano gets on some fruit, a civet eats guano-laced fruit, a person eats the civet later. Doesn't have to be simple transmission.
- zed88 7y ago
  Chinese have been known to eat all kind of exotic wild animals for medicinal and recreational reasons. The government may be trying to curb this, but a large portion of Chinese are still rural and food superstitions are rife, the regulation is not that easy I suppose. https://youtu.be/rbHxeOQA1Mc https://youtu.be/rbHxeOQA1Mc
- chrisco255 7y ago
  There's a level 4 virology research center in Wuhan, which means it studies the most dangerous pathogens in the world. This facility has been collecting SARS-like virus samples from bat populations and other animal populations for years. Some are speculating that it may have escaped the lab.
  - sohkamyung 7y ago
    That is very speculative and currently not accepted. See this HN discussion and the paper [1] [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22352908 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22352908
    - 7y ago
marcosdumay 7y ago
Well, compared to the evidence that points to the mainstream theory, this alternative is infinitely more robust.

JPLeRouzic 7y ago

Thanks, it is really helpful. If the patient zero is from Shenzen, doesn't that weaken the hypothesis of an origin in a bat virus? (Population density = 6,100/km2)

daemonk 7y ago
I don't know enough about the cases. But initially identified cases doesn't equate to patient zero. I think it was just the first case chronologically identified.
jacquesm 7y ago
There is a fair chance patient zero simply recovered and was never identified as carrier.

zoomablemind 7y ago

The paper cites GISAID db as their datasource. I wonder if at present the db includes sufficient number of early samples prior to the mentioned Dec 8), given the widely described massive efforts by official China to silence the early reports of the outbreak [0]? 0: https://www.businessinsider.com/china-information-crackdown-on-wuhan-coronavirus-2020-1 https://www.businessinsider.com/china-information-crackdown-...

wpasc 7y ago

Thanks for your insight! If not from the seafood market, is it possible to speculate (in an informed way) of what the source may have been? When novel viruses break into human populations, is some form of animal contact generally the culprit? Is something like a bat sneezing near you (I have no idea if bats sneeze) with an airborne virus sufficient to transfer to a human?

cjbprime 7y ago
> Is something like a bat sneezing near you (I have no idea if bats sneeze) with an airborne virus sufficient to transfer to a human? I think the theory for SARS went something like -- lots of live animals together in a market, bat guano gets on some fruit, a civet eats guano-laced fruit, a person eats the civet later. Doesn't have to be simple transmission.
zed88 7y ago
Chinese have been known to eat all kind of exotic wild animals for medicinal and recreational reasons. The government may be trying to curb this, but a large portion of Chinese are still rural and food superstitions are rife, the regulation is not that easy I suppose. https://youtu.be/rbHxeOQA1Mc https://youtu.be/rbHxeOQA1Mc
chrisco255 7y ago
There's a level 4 virology research center in Wuhan, which means it studies the most dangerous pathogens in the world. This facility has been collecting SARS-like virus samples from bat populations and other animal populations for years. Some are speculating that it may have escaped the lab.
- sohkamyung 7y ago
  That is very speculative and currently not accepted. See this HN discussion and the paper [1] [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22352908 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22352908
  - 7y ago

marcosdumay 7y ago

Well, compared to the evidence that points to the mainstream theory, this alternative is infinitely more robust.