3 ms·

We will see. The graphs of numbers of confirmed infected all seem to be bending down, but of course there's the possibility of biases like unreleased numbers an

We will see. The graphs of numbers of confirmed infected all seem to be bending down, but of course there's the possibility of biases like unreleased numbers and incomplete testing. I guess we will know in a few weeks which direction it is going to go. That being said, with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season. Obviously it is a serious concern, but I think on the extremes there is a bit more alarmism than is warranted. Of course, those same sensational articles are going to be the ones that get upvoted on social media sites like this one. I remember when the avian influenza scare was on how many end of the world articles there were. Not that it wasn't a pressing concern but it seems like these types of situations capture the public's imagination and fears a little more than is justified by the facts on the ground. Also keep in mind that this message is coming from a "risk communication expert" who probably gets more exposure and therefore more business the more extreme their predictions are. Are they actually privy to any information or knowledge the other experts aren't aware of? Do they have any skin in the game at all when they make this prediction? Consider the source is all I'm saying.

popotamonga 7y ago
Most have older family no?
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
  Sure. And we should be concerned for them. But I sense that many people are scared for their own lives and those of their children, which I feel is not really warranted. Maybe I'm generalizing my personal experience of my own mental state and who I've talked to, but that is what I've been exposed to. And of course the items discussed in the rest of my comment should modulate people's fears as well.
  - 0x8BADF00D 7y ago
    Regardless, it is always a good idea to have some backup supplies in case of a natural disaster. Whether it be an earthquake or pandemic or a storm.
    - asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
      I don't think anyone would dispute that. Certainly I did not intend to do so with my comment. I personally have a stock of about thirty days of non-perishable biscuit that can be used to supply calories in an emergency, and a forty gallon canister that could be filled with potable water ahead of a disaster. It's not enough to live on independent of civilization for more than a few weeks, but if more than that is needed we are probably screwed anyway.
jacquesm 7y ago
The big population centers in poor countries are the ones to watch, especially where there have been wars and where there is very little infrastructure. Iran, Iraq, Syria, most of Africa, the poorer parts of Asia and Latin America, though countries with higher temperatures seem to be so far mostly spared. But those with lower temps will be the hardest hit if this is not contained, and likely that is a passed station already, containment has failed so now we need to brace for impact.
altcognito 7y ago
Death and rate of serious (ECMO/intubation) is much higher than the flu and this is much more contagious. Most of the reason we're seeing a bend in the numbers is also due to extraordinary measures being taken to slow it down. It's hard to tell what's alarmist with quarantine and shutdown of schools/businessess coming down so hard on the affected areas. People aren't used to that sort of thing. The right steps are being taken in general. If this does continue to spread, which seems likely, people will need to exercise calm and patience. Otherwise, I think this assessment is dead on.
wcoenen 7y ago
> The graphs of numbers of confirmed infected all seem to be bending down Those numbers are dominated by the reports from China. If you look at just the cases outside China, then those are still on an exponential curve with a doubling time of about 6 days. My plot of the WHO numbers outside China: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQTpoR9gmgeiIoRSmU9ea68DHfKytYyIBBXCXQKL46ve3gdTQ_pHgS_poWoy0qXvm1K0pDOfGrxIy9u/pubchart?oid=2052729554&format=interactive https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQTpoR9gmgei... Source of the numbers: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/ https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...
- dis-sys 7y ago
  mostly due to two clusters - a cult church in south korean and a ship in japan. will be interesting to see what curve you can get once you remove those two clusters.
  - jacquesm 7y ago
    If you remove all the people that died you end up with zero fatalities! The problem with those clusters is that in close proximity the virus spreads very fast. There are quite a few communities where people are living together about as close to each other as if they were on a cruise ship. Hong Kong comes to mind. Rural communities where people are less likely to have intensive contact and shared resources are less at risk to begin with. You don't remove those either to get 'more interesting curves'.
  - iforgotpassword 7y ago
    I take these as examples of how quickly things can go wrong if they go wrong. People seem to overconfidently brush this off as isolated incidents because religion is stupid and we're not all in a cruise ship. It could also serve as an example of how bad things can get if one person goes unidentified and happens to go to a crowded place. Like a teacher, or clerk, or waiter. Just this past week a coworker returned from Beijing, and there was nothing in place at Frankfurt airport. No questions, no flyer asking you to wash your hands frequently, no phone number you're supposed to call if you feel sick... It's left to the common sense of the individual, which I don't trust everyone to have.
coconut_crab 7y ago
> That being said, with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season. This is my thoughts why Covid-19 is much more dangerous than seasonal flu: first it is much more virulent, and hard to detect, many of the infections in Korea were due to one 61 years old woman alone. Secondly the mortality rate is higher too, estimated at 2-3%, with the serious cases at around 10% (please correct me if I am wrong). Those two above combined means if left unchecked, Covid-19 can easily overload our medical system, as what is happening in Wuhan*. So I will most likely won't perish or suffer any long term health problems from Covid-19, but our society as a whole might be devastated if we can't contain it. There is no need to succumb to irrational fear (like what's happening some countries), but we should all be prepared. Actually I am worried about Iran, the embargo from America means their medical system are lacking all essentials. That's why they have so many deaths, second only yo China.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
  > Secondly the mortality rate is higher too, estimated at 2-3%, with the serious cases at around 10% (please correct me if I am wrong). I don't think we actually know that for sure. The flu mortality rates that get tossed around are the overall mortality rates, but for COVID-19 as far as I know we only know the mortality rates among those who have tested positive. Especially in a situation like what's going on, this is going to be a heavily biased sample. Fwiw I'm not advocating idleness or putting our heads in the sand. I think taking extreme measures to prevent the spread of this disease and eradicate it is smart. I am just hoping people can keep things in perspective.
  - jacquesm 7y ago
    Fair enough, there is still a good amount of uncertainty. But even so with the data available 2-3% seems realistic taking into account that some under-reporting will also be happening because people die that were never tested in the first place. The testing capacity of the countries where the virus has now solidly established itself is maxed out.
- jacquesm 7y ago
anonsivalley652 7y ago
Yep. Thunderf00t did a video on the power of net infectivity rate as dominating the outbreak irrespective of mortality rate. Infection can be most basically modeled by an ordinary diff eq. And what happens is when everyone knows about it, the infectivity drops off a cliff and the illness reaches a carrying capacity rather quickly and dies out with good sanitation and quarantines. It could be Ebola-deadly and it still dies out because the transmission rate drops to almost 0. Because of self-preservation and global news, a modern pandemic would only work if it were like Hepatitis C and norovirus: very long incubation period and airborne.
ilkan 7y ago
>with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season Perhaps I'm misinterpreting your tone, but I'm not so cavalier about performing solo heavy-duty, months-long care of parents & grandparents and the possible loss of company senior execs/mentors and coworkers over 30.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
  > Perhaps I'm misinterpreting your tone Perhaps you are. See my other comments on the subject e.g. here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22397271 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22397271. I also think you are exaggerating the risks when you say "coworkers over thirty", considering death rates at thirty are still well below one percent of those ill enough to go to the hospital and get tested. That sort of language is exactly what I was reacting against in my comment.

popotamonga 7y ago

Most have older family no?

asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
Sure. And we should be concerned for them. But I sense that many people are scared for their own lives and those of their children, which I feel is not really warranted. Maybe I'm generalizing my personal experience of my own mental state and who I've talked to, but that is what I've been exposed to. And of course the items discussed in the rest of my comment should modulate people's fears as well.
- 0x8BADF00D 7y ago
  Regardless, it is always a good idea to have some backup supplies in case of a natural disaster. Whether it be an earthquake or pandemic or a storm.
  - asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
    I don't think anyone would dispute that. Certainly I did not intend to do so with my comment. I personally have a stock of about thirty days of non-perishable biscuit that can be used to supply calories in an emergency, and a forty gallon canister that could be filled with potable water ahead of a disaster. It's not enough to live on independent of civilization for more than a few weeks, but if more than that is needed we are probably screwed anyway.

jacquesm 7y ago

The big population centers in poor countries are the ones to watch, especially where there have been wars and where there is very little infrastructure. Iran, Iraq, Syria, most of Africa, the poorer parts of Asia and Latin America, though countries with higher temperatures seem to be so far mostly spared. But those with lower temps will be the hardest hit if this is not contained, and likely that is a passed station already, containment has failed so now we need to brace for impact.

altcognito 7y ago

Death and rate of serious (ECMO/intubation) is much higher than the flu and this is much more contagious. Most of the reason we're seeing a bend in the numbers is also due to extraordinary measures being taken to slow it down. It's hard to tell what's alarmist with quarantine and shutdown of schools/businessess coming down so hard on the affected areas. People aren't used to that sort of thing. The right steps are being taken in general. If this does continue to spread, which seems likely, people will need to exercise calm and patience. Otherwise, I think this assessment is dead on.

wcoenen 7y ago

> The graphs of numbers of confirmed infected all seem to be bending down Those numbers are dominated by the reports from China. If you look at just the cases outside China, then those are still on an exponential curve with a doubling time of about 6 days. My plot of the WHO numbers outside China: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQTpoR9gmgeiIoRSmU9ea68DHfKytYyIBBXCXQKL46ve3gdTQ_pHgS_poWoy0qXvm1K0pDOfGrxIy9u/pubchart?oid=2052729554&format=interactive https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQTpoR9gmgei... Source of the numbers: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/ https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...

dis-sys 7y ago
mostly due to two clusters - a cult church in south korean and a ship in japan. will be interesting to see what curve you can get once you remove those two clusters.
- jacquesm 7y ago
  If you remove all the people that died you end up with zero fatalities! The problem with those clusters is that in close proximity the virus spreads very fast. There are quite a few communities where people are living together about as close to each other as if they were on a cruise ship. Hong Kong comes to mind. Rural communities where people are less likely to have intensive contact and shared resources are less at risk to begin with. You don't remove those either to get 'more interesting curves'.
- iforgotpassword 7y ago
  I take these as examples of how quickly things can go wrong if they go wrong. People seem to overconfidently brush this off as isolated incidents because religion is stupid and we're not all in a cruise ship. It could also serve as an example of how bad things can get if one person goes unidentified and happens to go to a crowded place. Like a teacher, or clerk, or waiter. Just this past week a coworker returned from Beijing, and there was nothing in place at Frankfurt airport. No questions, no flyer asking you to wash your hands frequently, no phone number you're supposed to call if you feel sick... It's left to the common sense of the individual, which I don't trust everyone to have.

coconut_crab 7y ago

> That being said, with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season. This is my thoughts why Covid-19 is much more dangerous than seasonal flu: first it is much more virulent, and hard to detect, many of the infections in Korea were due to one 61 years old woman alone. Secondly the mortality rate is higher too, estimated at 2-3%, with the serious cases at around 10% (please correct me if I am wrong). Those two above combined means if left unchecked, Covid-19 can easily overload our medical system, as what is happening in Wuhan*. So I will most likely won't perish or suffer any long term health problems from Covid-19, but our society as a whole might be devastated if we can't contain it. There is no need to succumb to irrational fear (like what's happening some countries), but we should all be prepared. Actually I am worried about Iran, the embargo from America means their medical system are lacking all essentials. That's why they have so many deaths, second only yo China.

asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
> Secondly the mortality rate is higher too, estimated at 2-3%, with the serious cases at around 10% (please correct me if I am wrong). I don't think we actually know that for sure. The flu mortality rates that get tossed around are the overall mortality rates, but for COVID-19 as far as I know we only know the mortality rates among those who have tested positive. Especially in a situation like what's going on, this is going to be a heavily biased sample. Fwiw I'm not advocating idleness or putting our heads in the sand. I think taking extreme measures to prevent the spread of this disease and eradicate it is smart. I am just hoping people can keep things in perspective.
- jacquesm 7y ago
  Fair enough, there is still a good amount of uncertainty. But even so with the data available 2-3% seems realistic taking into account that some under-reporting will also be happening because people die that were never tested in the first place. The testing capacity of the countries where the virus has now solidly established itself is maxed out.
jacquesm 7y ago

anonsivalley652 7y ago

Yep. Thunderf00t did a video on the power of net infectivity rate as dominating the outbreak irrespective of mortality rate. Infection can be most basically modeled by an ordinary diff eq. And what happens is when everyone knows about it, the infectivity drops off a cliff and the illness reaches a carrying capacity rather quickly and dies out with good sanitation and quarantines. It could be Ebola-deadly and it still dies out because the transmission rate drops to almost 0. Because of self-preservation and global news, a modern pandemic would only work if it were like Hepatitis C and norovirus: very long incubation period and airborne.

ilkan 7y ago

>with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season Perhaps I'm misinterpreting your tone, but I'm not so cavalier about performing solo heavy-duty, months-long care of parents & grandparents and the possible loss of company senior execs/mentors and coworkers over 30.

asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
> Perhaps I'm misinterpreting your tone Perhaps you are. See my other comments on the subject e.g. here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22397271 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22397271. I also think you are exaggerating the risks when you say "coworkers over thirty", considering death rates at thirty are still well below one percent of those ill enough to go to the hospital and get tested. That sort of language is exactly what I was reacting against in my comment.