Assuming non-containment (starting to look more and more likely), then an unknown fraction of the population will get sick. The Diamond ~~Princess~~ Petri Dish

Assuming non-containment (starting to look more and more likely), then an unknown fraction of the population will get sick. The Diamond ~~Princess~~ Petri Dish Experiment, shows that at least 218 out of 3700 people are susceptible ( > 5.9% ). If we knew how many of these would eventually need respirators then we could estimate a lower bound on respirators for a 330M population. Working the other way around: 33000 respirators / 330M = 1 / 10 0000 so if 5.9% gets infected and we can only give 0.01% a respirator, then at most 0.17% of covid-positive people can be given a respirator. This assumes they all need their respirators simultaneously (pessimistic) but also assumes the Petri Disk experiment stays at 5.9% (optimistic) EDIT: what kind of query did you use to find the number of respirators in the US? How can I find similar numbers for European countries? How hard is it do DIY a respirator? If we look at the international statistics for dead and serious / critical people per confirmed case, and interpret that as the fraction needing a respirator we get: 22 / 523 = 4.2% of covid-positives seem to need respirators So we expect 4.2% * 5.9% = 0.25% of the population to neeed a respirator, while we only have enough for 0.01%, so assuming perfect triage of who needs it and who doesnt, 24 out of 25 who actually need one won't get one. It seems like we really are heading to a CFR of 4.2% * 24 / 25 such that there will be at least > 5.9% * 4.2% * 24 / 25 deaths, where the 5.9% can only rise depending on Diamond Princess evolution...