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This meme of shock and surprise that self-driving cars haven't appeared overnight is just media BS. Yes, all technology development is a gradual process and we

This meme of shock and surprise that self-driving cars haven't appeared overnight is just media BS. Yes, all technology development is a gradual process and we may not know how long it takes. Companies working on it have pitch decks and investors so they give their best or most optimistic estimates.

ghaff 7y ago
Go back a couple of years and look on just about any thread about self-driving on a forum such as this one and you'll find no shortage of people arguing that they're just around the corner. Because, after all, that's what the SV hypesters were saying and they'd never lie.
- seanmcdirmid 7y ago
  > you'll find no shortage of people arguing that they're just around the corner Ya, but around the corner no one thought that would be 2020. The strawman is always to place around the corner as tomorrow, but many people just mean in a decade or two.
  - kaesar14 7y ago
    The article posted quite literally posts examples to the contrary of what you're saying. The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/13/self-driving-cars-bmw-google-2020-driving https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/13/self-driv... Business Insider: https://www.businessinsider.com/report-10-million-self-driving-cars-will-be-on-the-road-by-2020-2015-5-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/report-10-million-self-drivi... GM/Cruise: https://www.wired.com/story/gms-cruise-rolls-back-target-self-driving-cars/ https://www.wired.com/story/gms-cruise-rolls-back-target-sel... Waymo: https://www.wired.com/story/gms-cruise-rolls-back-target-self-driving-cars/ https://www.wired.com/story/gms-cruise-rolls-back-target-sel... Toyota: https://www.wsj.com/articles/toyota-aims-to-make-self-driving-cars-by-2020-1444136396 https://www.wsj.com/articles/toyota-aims-to-make-self-drivin... Honda: https://www.autotrader.com/car-shopping/self-driving-cars-honda-sets-2020-as-target-for-highly-automated-freeway-driving-266836 https://www.autotrader.com/car-shopping/self-driving-cars-ho... Tesla: https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/22/18510828/tesla-elon-musk-autonomy-day-investor-comments-self-driving-cars-predictions https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/22/18510828/tesla-elon-musk-...
  - Piskvorrr 7y ago
    Yeah. It's been juuust beyond reach, but within five years to mass adoption, for a century now.
    - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
      I don’t think anyone was hyping self driving cars in the 1920s. If they were, they already had horses that could do that anyways.
      - Piskvorrr 7y ago
        Nope. Horses obsolete, slow, hungry, disobedient. Future was in machines. https://io9.gizmodo.com/when-people-in-the-1920s-and-1930s-imagined-the-future-1695028672 https://io9.gizmodo.com/when-people-in-the-1920s-and-1930s-i...

ghaff 7y ago

Go back a couple of years and look on just about any thread about self-driving on a forum such as this one and you'll find no shortage of people arguing that they're just around the corner. Because, after all, that's what the SV hypesters were saying and they'd never lie.

seanmcdirmid 7y ago
> you'll find no shortage of people arguing that they're just around the corner Ya, but around the corner no one thought that would be 2020. The strawman is always to place around the corner as tomorrow, but many people just mean in a decade or two.
- kaesar14 7y ago
  The article posted quite literally posts examples to the contrary of what you're saying. The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/13/self-driving-cars-bmw-google-2020-driving https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/13/self-driv... Business Insider: https://www.businessinsider.com/report-10-million-self-driving-cars-will-be-on-the-road-by-2020-2015-5-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/report-10-million-self-drivi... GM/Cruise: https://www.wired.com/story/gms-cruise-rolls-back-target-self-driving-cars/ https://www.wired.com/story/gms-cruise-rolls-back-target-sel... Waymo: https://www.wired.com/story/gms-cruise-rolls-back-target-self-driving-cars/ https://www.wired.com/story/gms-cruise-rolls-back-target-sel... Toyota: https://www.wsj.com/articles/toyota-aims-to-make-self-driving-cars-by-2020-1444136396 https://www.wsj.com/articles/toyota-aims-to-make-self-drivin... Honda: https://www.autotrader.com/car-shopping/self-driving-cars-honda-sets-2020-as-target-for-highly-automated-freeway-driving-266836 https://www.autotrader.com/car-shopping/self-driving-cars-ho... Tesla: https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/22/18510828/tesla-elon-musk-autonomy-day-investor-comments-self-driving-cars-predictions https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/22/18510828/tesla-elon-musk-...
- Piskvorrr 7y ago
  Yeah. It's been juuust beyond reach, but within five years to mass adoption, for a century now.
  - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
    I don’t think anyone was hyping self driving cars in the 1920s. If they were, they already had horses that could do that anyways.
    - Piskvorrr 7y ago
      Nope. Horses obsolete, slow, hungry, disobedient. Future was in machines. https://io9.gizmodo.com/when-people-in-the-1920s-and-1930s-imagined-the-future-1695028672 https://io9.gizmodo.com/when-people-in-the-1920s-and-1930s-i...