4 ms·

You’re right, except cases are not in exponential growth for a period of time already if you’ve been following closely. Right now it’s more or less linear

downerending 7y ago
Hadn't looked for a few days. It does appear to be attenuating--hope that holds up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavi...
- Filligree 7y ago
  Keep in mind, the right model is a large number of overlapping S-curves. The virus may spread like wildfire once it's entered a city, but it first has to do so. Wuhan is nearing the top of its S-curve, while other cities are still near the start. As such it would make sense for the number of cases to slow down even if it isn't actually being stopped.
- jnurmine 7y ago
  Not sure of attenuation since according to the Wikipedia page they are now excluding asymptomatic infections from the statistics, which lowers the number of confirmed. The Wikipedia page says: "On 6 February, the Chinese National Health Commission started to change how cases were reported – asymptomatic carriers, who tested positive for the virus but did not show clinical symptoms, would no longer be included in the number of confirmed cases. This had the effect of reducing the total number of cases reported, but also meant that potentially contagious individuals were ignored in reports."
  - downerending 7y ago
    Oh my. That's one way to get the numbers looking better.
  - whoevercares 7y ago
    I think the reporting criteria changed again. Now it’s based on CT/other clinical symptoms and the number increased 15000+ In a single day!
- totalZero 7y ago
  These numbers come from an overwhelmed, propagandist third-world authoritarian government. It is surprising to me that anyone would simply accept them as fact.
KallDrexx 7y ago
Just keep in mind that it's been admitted that China is strapped for testing kits and turning people away without testing them. So it's possible that it only turned linear because the number of testing kits available per day is linear.
tristanj 7y ago
EDIT: Hubei Province added 14,840 new cases today, my earlier analysis isn't right anymore. I've left it below. Infected case growth has slowed down primarily because of the quarantine of Hubei province. The virus has up to a two week incubation period, and today two weeks later we're able to result of this quarantine. Case growth in Hubei has slowed down. The issue now is that every major city in China has local infection clusters, and these infection clusters are growing exponentially. https://i.imgur.com/lQcyqAX.jpg https://i.imgur.com/lQcyqAX.jpg Even if the net case growth rate is decreasing, the situation is less under control than ever before. Look at China's actions; they're past containment methods and now acting on mitigation.

downerending 7y ago

Hadn't looked for a few days. It does appear to be attenuating--hope that holds up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavi...

Filligree 7y ago
Keep in mind, the right model is a large number of overlapping S-curves. The virus may spread like wildfire once it's entered a city, but it first has to do so. Wuhan is nearing the top of its S-curve, while other cities are still near the start. As such it would make sense for the number of cases to slow down even if it isn't actually being stopped.
jnurmine 7y ago
Not sure of attenuation since according to the Wikipedia page they are now excluding asymptomatic infections from the statistics, which lowers the number of confirmed. The Wikipedia page says: "On 6 February, the Chinese National Health Commission started to change how cases were reported – asymptomatic carriers, who tested positive for the virus but did not show clinical symptoms, would no longer be included in the number of confirmed cases. This had the effect of reducing the total number of cases reported, but also meant that potentially contagious individuals were ignored in reports."
- downerending 7y ago
  Oh my. That's one way to get the numbers looking better.
- whoevercares 7y ago
  I think the reporting criteria changed again. Now it’s based on CT/other clinical symptoms and the number increased 15000+ In a single day!
totalZero 7y ago
These numbers come from an overwhelmed, propagandist third-world authoritarian government. It is surprising to me that anyone would simply accept them as fact.

KallDrexx 7y ago

Just keep in mind that it's been admitted that China is strapped for testing kits and turning people away without testing them. So it's possible that it only turned linear because the number of testing kits available per day is linear.

tristanj 7y ago

EDIT: Hubei Province added 14,840 new cases today, my earlier analysis isn't right anymore. I've left it below. Infected case growth has slowed down primarily because of the quarantine of Hubei province. The virus has up to a two week incubation period, and today two weeks later we're able to result of this quarantine. Case growth in Hubei has slowed down. The issue now is that every major city in China has local infection clusters, and these infection clusters are growing exponentially. https://i.imgur.com/lQcyqAX.jpg https://i.imgur.com/lQcyqAX.jpg Even if the net case growth rate is decreasing, the situation is less under control than ever before. Look at China's actions; they're past containment methods and now acting on mitigation.