5 ms·

I think people are worried about the unknown unknowns. IIUC, it's infectious for a considerable period of time (one or two weeks) before the infected person be

I think people are worried about the unknown unknowns. IIUC, it's infectious for a considerable period of time (one or two weeks) before the infected person becomes systematic. Plus, it's possible that some infectious persons never develop symptoms. Also, the case count is still in exponential growth mode. Plus, information coming out of China might be incomplete. No idea whether the conference should be cancelled, but it's not an irrational idea. There could be a large number of silent cases outside of China already.

merqurio 7y ago
The MWC was going to be attended by 100,000 people, 75% of them from Europe and the US, 10% from Asia-Pacific (excluding China) and 9% from the rest of the world. Only 6% of visitors were going to be from China, and less were expected much less due to the COVD-19. Can any of them come infected by the COVD-19? The probability is very low. Almost all of the participants will come from areas where the presence of the COVD-19 is nil or extremely low. By comparison, a number of passengers equivalent to three times the MWC go through the airports of Atlanta or Los Angeles, two times pass through the airports of London, Paris or Amsterdam each day, and 1.5 times through Madrid and Barcelona each day. And none of them closed so far. The basic hygiene measures (handwashing, not sneezing or coughing to the open) and common sense are more solid and effective. If we follow the same line of thinking (we shouldn't), we would have to close all the airports tomorrow. edit: typo
- electriclove 7y ago
  What is the harm caused by MWC being cancelled?
  - ghaff 7y ago
    A lot of money is wasted. Presumably sales at a lot of companies take some incremental hit. Some startup that planned this as their launch event is screwed. A lot of people in Barcelona don't make money they were expecting to make. (Other Barcelona residents breathe a sigh of relief.) So, yes, there's harm even if the decision was probably the rational one.
    - berkeleyjunk 7y ago
      I work at a startup where we invested quite a bit of time and money for this show. It is a big hit for the smaller companies since it eats away a large chunk of your marketing budget.
- downerending 7y ago
  > where the presence of the COVD-19 is nil or extremely low I don't think this is known or knowable at the moment. Hence the worry. You are right that airports are probably a greater risk. Perhaps they should be closed. On the other hand, that would be far more disruptive. As for basic hygiene, yes, we all should. At the same time, we all know that a significant fraction of the population can't or won't do this. Edit: Here's the proper method: https://www.who.int/gpsc/clean_hands_protection/en/ https://www.who.int/gpsc/clean_hands_protection/en/ A significant caveat is that the sink/restroom must allow proper handwashing. Many lack paper towels, for example. If you have to touch the faucet handle or the door after you start washing (which takes two minutes), the method has not been followed. It's harder than it looks.
  - merqurio 7y ago
    We have a good understanding of what's happening outside mainland China[1], and China seems (surprisingly) transparent so far. But it is indeed difficult to trust that they have reported 100% of the cases. [1]: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
  - sundvor 7y ago
    Yep, keep seeing how people use their freshly washed hand to pull open a door. It only takes one person leaving without washing their hands for the irony to be apparent.
    - sib 7y ago
      This is one primary reason why I'm not a fan of the hit air blowers to dry hands (rather than paper towels).
      - downerending 7y ago
        Apparently they're also good for blowing bacteria around the room. But at least we're saving the planet. Hooray.
- berkeleyjunk 7y ago
  I think once the first high profile cancellations (LG, Ericsson) came in it was just a matter of time. We were prepared to go still but one by one everyone we were supposed to meet started canceling. The domino effect of the first cancellations doomed the event.
- baybal2 7y ago
  > Only 6% of visitors were going to be from China, and less were expected much less due to the COVD-19. Holding MWC without Huawei, ZTE, BBK, Xiaomi and co. is pretty much meaningless
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
Aperocky 7y ago
You’re right, except cases are not in exponential growth for a period of time already if you’ve been following closely. Right now it’s more or less linear
- downerending 7y ago
  Hadn't looked for a few days. It does appear to be attenuating--hope that holds up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavi...
  - Filligree 7y ago
    Keep in mind, the right model is a large number of overlapping S-curves. The virus may spread like wildfire once it's entered a city, but it first has to do so. Wuhan is nearing the top of its S-curve, while other cities are still near the start. As such it would make sense for the number of cases to slow down even if it isn't actually being stopped.
  - jnurmine 7y ago
    Not sure of attenuation since according to the Wikipedia page they are now excluding asymptomatic infections from the statistics, which lowers the number of confirmed. The Wikipedia page says: "On 6 February, the Chinese National Health Commission started to change how cases were reported – asymptomatic carriers, who tested positive for the virus but did not show clinical symptoms, would no longer be included in the number of confirmed cases. This had the effect of reducing the total number of cases reported, but also meant that potentially contagious individuals were ignored in reports."
    - downerending 7y ago
      Oh my. That's one way to get the numbers looking better.
    - whoevercares 7y ago
      I think the reporting criteria changed again. Now it’s based on CT/other clinical symptoms and the number increased 15000+ In a single day!
lallysingh 7y ago
Also, maybe MWC just isn't interesting enough to be worth it?

merqurio 7y ago

The MWC was going to be attended by 100,000 people, 75% of them from Europe and the US, 10% from Asia-Pacific (excluding China) and 9% from the rest of the world. Only 6% of visitors were going to be from China, and less were expected much less due to the COVD-19. Can any of them come infected by the COVD-19? The probability is very low. Almost all of the participants will come from areas where the presence of the COVD-19 is nil or extremely low. By comparison, a number of passengers equivalent to three times the MWC go through the airports of Atlanta or Los Angeles, two times pass through the airports of London, Paris or Amsterdam each day, and 1.5 times through Madrid and Barcelona each day. And none of them closed so far. The basic hygiene measures (handwashing, not sneezing or coughing to the open) and common sense are more solid and effective. If we follow the same line of thinking (we shouldn't), we would have to close all the airports tomorrow. edit: typo

electriclove 7y ago
What is the harm caused by MWC being cancelled?
- ghaff 7y ago
  A lot of money is wasted. Presumably sales at a lot of companies take some incremental hit. Some startup that planned this as their launch event is screwed. A lot of people in Barcelona don't make money they were expecting to make. (Other Barcelona residents breathe a sigh of relief.) So, yes, there's harm even if the decision was probably the rational one.
  - berkeleyjunk 7y ago
    I work at a startup where we invested quite a bit of time and money for this show. It is a big hit for the smaller companies since it eats away a large chunk of your marketing budget.
downerending 7y ago
> where the presence of the COVD-19 is nil or extremely low I don't think this is known or knowable at the moment. Hence the worry. You are right that airports are probably a greater risk. Perhaps they should be closed. On the other hand, that would be far more disruptive. As for basic hygiene, yes, we all should. At the same time, we all know that a significant fraction of the population can't or won't do this. Edit: Here's the proper method: https://www.who.int/gpsc/clean_hands_protection/en/ https://www.who.int/gpsc/clean_hands_protection/en/ A significant caveat is that the sink/restroom must allow proper handwashing. Many lack paper towels, for example. If you have to touch the faucet handle or the door after you start washing (which takes two minutes), the method has not been followed. It's harder than it looks.
- merqurio 7y ago
  We have a good understanding of what's happening outside mainland China[1], and China seems (surprisingly) transparent so far. But it is indeed difficult to trust that they have reported 100% of the cases. [1]: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
- sundvor 7y ago
  Yep, keep seeing how people use their freshly washed hand to pull open a door. It only takes one person leaving without washing their hands for the irony to be apparent.
  - sib 7y ago
    This is one primary reason why I'm not a fan of the hit air blowers to dry hands (rather than paper towels).
    - downerending 7y ago
      Apparently they're also good for blowing bacteria around the room. But at least we're saving the planet. Hooray.
berkeleyjunk 7y ago
I think once the first high profile cancellations (LG, Ericsson) came in it was just a matter of time. We were prepared to go still but one by one everyone we were supposed to meet started canceling. The domino effect of the first cancellations doomed the event.
baybal2 7y ago
> Only 6% of visitors were going to be from China, and less were expected much less due to the COVD-19. Holding MWC without Huawei, ZTE, BBK, Xiaomi and co. is pretty much meaningless
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

Aperocky 7y ago

You’re right, except cases are not in exponential growth for a period of time already if you’ve been following closely. Right now it’s more or less linear

downerending 7y ago
Hadn't looked for a few days. It does appear to be attenuating--hope that holds up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavi...
- Filligree 7y ago
  Keep in mind, the right model is a large number of overlapping S-curves. The virus may spread like wildfire once it's entered a city, but it first has to do so. Wuhan is nearing the top of its S-curve, while other cities are still near the start. As such it would make sense for the number of cases to slow down even if it isn't actually being stopped.
- jnurmine 7y ago
  Not sure of attenuation since according to the Wikipedia page they are now excluding asymptomatic infections from the statistics, which lowers the number of confirmed. The Wikipedia page says: "On 6 February, the Chinese National Health Commission started to change how cases were reported – asymptomatic carriers, who tested positive for the virus but did not show clinical symptoms, would no longer be included in the number of confirmed cases. This had the effect of reducing the total number of cases reported, but also meant that potentially contagious individuals were ignored in reports."
  - downerending 7y ago
    Oh my. That's one way to get the numbers looking better.
  - whoevercares 7y ago
    I think the reporting criteria changed again. Now it’s based on CT/other clinical symptoms and the number increased 15000+ In a single day!

lallysingh 7y ago

Also, maybe MWC just isn't interesting enough to be worth it?