8 ms·

Why the HS2 rail route is so expensive

41 points by AndrewDucker 7y ago

hyko 7y ago
“Now contractors do not carry the risk. That should help keep prices down.” Perhaps, but the costs will remain the same because someone (the public) is still going to have to insure that risk. Worse still, the accounting for risk is being removed from those who are best placed to do it. This is nothing more than a desperate bid to reduce the sticker “price”, fooling precisely nobody.
- hkt 7y ago
  Just as an aside, it's worth noting that there's case law in the UK suggesting that if you aren't insured you aren't a proper specialist. The insurance companies don't do nominal insurance for this purpose, so the costs are there either way. I may have a flawed understanding of this but it seems like an oddity in how we consider what constitutes professional or specialist tradesperson that would inevitably inflate costs.
- Mvandenbergh 7y ago
  Moving risk to the party with the lower cost of capital (contractors have a very high cost of capital) is a real saving. Obviously, yes, the risk itself still exists and will now be borne by the public.
- mytailorisrich 7y ago
  There is very little competition in those contracts. There one or two main contractors and that's it. Basically, if Balfour Beatty says we need £x, then they'll get £x because the market is locked with the blessing of the government. This sort of article always tries to rationalise the price tag but rarely goes into investigating beyond that, including the issue of the glacial pace of most projects.
KaiserPro 7y ago
From what I understand the reason why the price tag is so high is that _all_ the contractors are liable for _everything_ up to 20 years after construction. This is unusual, and the price reflect this.
- thomasedwards 7y ago
  Yes that was correct, but that has now been resolved.
andy_ppp 7y ago
I find these huge government projects completely insane. Could they not build short distances of track and get trains running on them to derisk this whole thing? Then each piece can be managed at a reasonable, human understandable cost.
- pintxo 7y ago
  This project is split in two (three separate lines). Not sure it makes sense to have high speed rail for a shorter route than London - Birmingham.
  - youngtaff 7y ago
    It's about capacity, moving high speed intercity trains onto their own lines frees capacity for goods trains and local trains Midlands Connect have some useful details on how just the London to Birmingham link improves local services around Birmingham https://www.midlandsconnect.uk/publications/hs2-released-capacity/ https://www.midlandsconnect.uk/publications/hs2-released-cap...
    - pintxo 7y ago
      No disagreement here.
- bobthepanda 7y ago
  The HS2's main rationale has been for capacity relief, to move intercity trains off of slower winding tracks and use that free capacity for more commuter services. So it won't be very useful unless it takes some significant amount of intercity services off of the existing rail network, and London-Birmingham isn't even a particularly long route.
  - andy_ppp 7y ago
    Sure but it’s the most complicated part, why do that bit first? Prove everything with Leeds - Manchester first, or an even shorter route...
nodex-alex 7y ago
The HS2 company forced my friend to sell his house (well the government did but still), they paid him a massive fee for it, the legal fees were astronomical and when asked about it they said they didn't care because the tax payer was ultimately picking up the bill so the lawyers were just adding stuff to the bill and dragging their heels. I'm sure this is happening all over the place... True story.
benoliver999 7y ago
At the risk of sounding like a contrarian, I think HS2 should go ahead now. I was against it years ago, but times have changed since the idea was floated. The amount of track has gone down as rail travel has gone up. Passenger numbers are even higher than predicted when HS2 was proposed. We are at capacity. Double decker trains like abroad are too wide for the tracks. Longer trains would also require major works at stations. I don't think saving 20 minutes off the journey matters either, but I also don't think that is the main benefit of the project.
- deif 7y ago
  I don't really get why it's such a high priority to expand the London commuter belt. Train lines may be at capacity but if more money was devolved into the northern regions so everyone doesn't have to commute to London maybe we could solve the problem in a cleaner and less costly way. But then the contractors won't get their back pockets filled.
  - dan-robertson 7y ago
    I thought that as internet speed and quality increased, we would see more office work being dispersed across the country. More people would be able to work remotely or in small satellite offices using the internet to effectively coordinate. The role of the (London) headquarters of larger companies would be diminished. Instead it feels to me like companies have become more centralised. Regional offices are gutted (much of their work can be done over the internet from headquarters), more firms are crammed into London, all competing for the same people and this competition drives up wages (and house prices) and this encourages more people to want to work there which makes it one of the few places for companies to find talent and so on. Maybe my impression of the state and change of things is just wrong. But my theory of the change in office work due to the internet is that it let things become more centralised and that this change is the reason for various other political changes (eg rising house prices -> weird policies to help people buy houses without decreasing the sale price; pushes towards better transport infrastructure in and to London; weakening of the rural and regional economy; trains in high demand which everyone hates; ...)
guy_c 7y ago
I enjoy Rory Sutherland's take on HS2 https://www.spectator.co.uk/2013/11/the-wiki-man-how-to-reduce-journey-times-without-hs2/ https://www.spectator.co.uk/2013/11/the-wiki-man-how-to-redu... https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/02/why-hs2-doesnt-stand-up-to-the-test-of-time/ https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/02/why-hs2-doesnt-stand-up-...
- AndrewDucker 7y ago
  "So why not make HS2 more like HS1, by allowing it to perform shorter journeys for frequent travellers" Because the whole point of HS2 is to increase capacity by taking the high-speed long-distance trains off of the existing lines, where they get in the way of running local stopping services (because everyone has to get out of the way of the high speed trains).
genmon 7y ago
For an more in-depth look at some of the capacity benefits of HS2, this article on the London end of HS2 by ianvisits.co.uk is definitely worth a read: https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2019/08/20/taking-a-look-at-hs2s-huge-old-oak-common-station/ https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2019/08/20/taking-a-look-at... On the redevelopment of Euston station: > Building not just more platforms for HS2, but critically, the extra tunnels for those trains to use shifts intercity services to the HS2 line, releasing lots of capacity in the old tunnels for suburban services. If that doesn’t sound too important, then where’s the UK’s most congested train... it’s the 17:46 out of Euston which carries more than twice the number of passengers that it’s designed for. When completed, HS2 is expected to more than double the number of seats out of Euston station during peak hours. It seems building HS2 is only part of the cost. A lot of it is also paying down "infrastructure debt" that hasn't been touched for decades.
pjc50 7y ago
Just for reference I dug up a schematic and non-schematic map of the UK rail network: https://www.mytrainticket.co.uk/project/uploaded-media/great-britain-national-rail-railmap24.pdf https://www.mytrainticket.co.uk/project/uploaded-media/great... / https://www.thetrainline.com/cms/media/2922/tocs-v52tl-december-2019.jpg https://www.thetrainline.com/cms/media/2922/tocs-v52tl-decem... They'd probably need to be combined with a map of population density and nature reserves to produce a "rail planners map". You can already see where the "empty" areas of the UK are already, like the Scottish borders.
- jnty 7y ago
  The non-schematic map is quite out of date given that the Borders Line to Galashiels and Tweedbank opened five years ago. edit: oh, it says 2013
  - jwatt 7y ago
    The latest edition has the Tweedbank line: http://www.projectmapping.co.uk/Reviews/Resources/Barry%20Doe%20railmap%2045.pdf http://www.projectmapping.co.uk/Reviews/Resources/Barry%20Do... There are some other interesting maps at: https://www.nationalrail.co.uk/stations_destinations/maps.aspx https://www.nationalrail.co.uk/stations_destinations/maps.as...
helsinkiandrew 7y ago
I didn't realise how ambitious HS2 is: If you stood by the track, a train could pass you at 360km/h (224mph) every 3 1/2 minutes - the kind of safety and control systems to make that possible must be astounding.
- pjc50 7y ago
  > the kind of safety and control systems to make that possible must be astounding. I wondered about this, and hit gold on Google: the requirements specification! https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/794108/HS2-HS2-RR-SPE-000-000007_P11_TTS_Main_Body__External_.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... HS2 will, unlike the rest of the UK legacy network, use ETCS: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Train_Control_System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Train_Control_System (at level 2 with the possibility of level 3). Conceptually it's the same as the ancient tokening system - a train requires a token to enter a particular section of rail. Except these are digital tokens granted over a cryptographic protocol over the GSM network or trackside radios. When a train has cleared a particular point, a calculation is made based on the speed and braking distance of the train behind, which is then granted an authority to move further along the track. As long as the train receives a continuous series of valid "movement authority" tokens for the correct sections, it will proceed. If not, it applies the brakes. (That's a really nicely written requirements document - concise, but including rationales for every point. More reading on the crypto: https://www.cs.bham.ac.uk/~tpc/Papers/TRAKS.pdf https://www.cs.bham.ac.uk/~tpc/Papers/TRAKS.pdf )
  - Scoundreller 7y ago
    > GSM is no longer being developed outside of GSM-R, the manufacturers have committed to supplying GSM-R till at least 2030. The ERA is considering what action is needed to smoothly transition to a successor system such as GPRS or Edge. While I’m always happy to keep using something that works, « upgrading to EDGE by 2030 » still gives me a laugh.

41 points by AndrewDucker 7y ago

hyko 7y ago

“Now contractors do not carry the risk. That should help keep prices down.” Perhaps, but the costs will remain the same because someone (the public) is still going to have to insure that risk. Worse still, the accounting for risk is being removed from those who are best placed to do it. This is nothing more than a desperate bid to reduce the sticker “price”, fooling precisely nobody.

hkt 7y ago
Just as an aside, it's worth noting that there's case law in the UK suggesting that if you aren't insured you aren't a proper specialist. The insurance companies don't do nominal insurance for this purpose, so the costs are there either way. I may have a flawed understanding of this but it seems like an oddity in how we consider what constitutes professional or specialist tradesperson that would inevitably inflate costs.
Mvandenbergh 7y ago
Moving risk to the party with the lower cost of capital (contractors have a very high cost of capital) is a real saving. Obviously, yes, the risk itself still exists and will now be borne by the public.
mytailorisrich 7y ago
There is very little competition in those contracts. There one or two main contractors and that's it. Basically, if Balfour Beatty says we need £x, then they'll get £x because the market is locked with the blessing of the government. This sort of article always tries to rationalise the price tag but rarely goes into investigating beyond that, including the issue of the glacial pace of most projects.

KaiserPro 7y ago

From what I understand the reason why the price tag is so high is that _all_ the contractors are liable for _everything_ up to 20 years after construction. This is unusual, and the price reflect this.

thomasedwards 7y ago
Yes that was correct, but that has now been resolved.

andy_ppp 7y ago

I find these huge government projects completely insane. Could they not build short distances of track and get trains running on them to derisk this whole thing? Then each piece can be managed at a reasonable, human understandable cost.

pintxo 7y ago
This project is split in two (three separate lines). Not sure it makes sense to have high speed rail for a shorter route than London - Birmingham.
- youngtaff 7y ago
  It's about capacity, moving high speed intercity trains onto their own lines frees capacity for goods trains and local trains Midlands Connect have some useful details on how just the London to Birmingham link improves local services around Birmingham https://www.midlandsconnect.uk/publications/hs2-released-capacity/ https://www.midlandsconnect.uk/publications/hs2-released-cap...
  - pintxo 7y ago
    No disagreement here.
bobthepanda 7y ago
The HS2's main rationale has been for capacity relief, to move intercity trains off of slower winding tracks and use that free capacity for more commuter services. So it won't be very useful unless it takes some significant amount of intercity services off of the existing rail network, and London-Birmingham isn't even a particularly long route.
- andy_ppp 7y ago
  Sure but it’s the most complicated part, why do that bit first? Prove everything with Leeds - Manchester first, or an even shorter route...

nodex-alex 7y ago

The HS2 company forced my friend to sell his house (well the government did but still), they paid him a massive fee for it, the legal fees were astronomical and when asked about it they said they didn't care because the tax payer was ultimately picking up the bill so the lawyers were just adding stuff to the bill and dragging their heels. I'm sure this is happening all over the place... True story.

benoliver999 7y ago

At the risk of sounding like a contrarian, I think HS2 should go ahead now. I was against it years ago, but times have changed since the idea was floated. The amount of track has gone down as rail travel has gone up. Passenger numbers are even higher than predicted when HS2 was proposed. We are at capacity. Double decker trains like abroad are too wide for the tracks. Longer trains would also require major works at stations. I don't think saving 20 minutes off the journey matters either, but I also don't think that is the main benefit of the project.

deif 7y ago
I don't really get why it's such a high priority to expand the London commuter belt. Train lines may be at capacity but if more money was devolved into the northern regions so everyone doesn't have to commute to London maybe we could solve the problem in a cleaner and less costly way. But then the contractors won't get their back pockets filled.
- dan-robertson 7y ago
  I thought that as internet speed and quality increased, we would see more office work being dispersed across the country. More people would be able to work remotely or in small satellite offices using the internet to effectively coordinate. The role of the (London) headquarters of larger companies would be diminished. Instead it feels to me like companies have become more centralised. Regional offices are gutted (much of their work can be done over the internet from headquarters), more firms are crammed into London, all competing for the same people and this competition drives up wages (and house prices) and this encourages more people to want to work there which makes it one of the few places for companies to find talent and so on. Maybe my impression of the state and change of things is just wrong. But my theory of the change in office work due to the internet is that it let things become more centralised and that this change is the reason for various other political changes (eg rising house prices -> weird policies to help people buy houses without decreasing the sale price; pushes towards better transport infrastructure in and to London; weakening of the rural and regional economy; trains in high demand which everyone hates; ...)

guy_c 7y ago

I enjoy Rory Sutherland's take on HS2 https://www.spectator.co.uk/2013/11/the-wiki-man-how-to-reduce-journey-times-without-hs2/ https://www.spectator.co.uk/2013/11/the-wiki-man-how-to-redu... https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/02/why-hs2-doesnt-stand-up-to-the-test-of-time/ https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/02/why-hs2-doesnt-stand-up-...

AndrewDucker 7y ago
"So why not make HS2 more like HS1, by allowing it to perform shorter journeys for frequent travellers" Because the whole point of HS2 is to increase capacity by taking the high-speed long-distance trains off of the existing lines, where they get in the way of running local stopping services (because everyone has to get out of the way of the high speed trains).

genmon 7y ago

For an more in-depth look at some of the capacity benefits of HS2, this article on the London end of HS2 by ianvisits.co.uk is definitely worth a read: https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2019/08/20/taking-a-look-at-hs2s-huge-old-oak-common-station/ https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2019/08/20/taking-a-look-at... On the redevelopment of Euston station: > Building not just more platforms for HS2, but critically, the extra tunnels for those trains to use shifts intercity services to the HS2 line, releasing lots of capacity in the old tunnels for suburban services. If that doesn’t sound too important, then where’s the UK’s most congested train... it’s the 17:46 out of Euston which carries more than twice the number of passengers that it’s designed for. When completed, HS2 is expected to more than double the number of seats out of Euston station during peak hours. It seems building HS2 is only part of the cost. A lot of it is also paying down "infrastructure debt" that hasn't been touched for decades.

pjc50 7y ago

Just for reference I dug up a schematic and non-schematic map of the UK rail network: https://www.mytrainticket.co.uk/project/uploaded-media/great-britain-national-rail-railmap24.pdf https://www.mytrainticket.co.uk/project/uploaded-media/great... / https://www.thetrainline.com/cms/media/2922/tocs-v52tl-december-2019.jpg https://www.thetrainline.com/cms/media/2922/tocs-v52tl-decem... They'd probably need to be combined with a map of population density and nature reserves to produce a "rail planners map". You can already see where the "empty" areas of the UK are already, like the Scottish borders.

jnty 7y ago
The non-schematic map is quite out of date given that the Borders Line to Galashiels and Tweedbank opened five years ago. edit: oh, it says 2013
- jwatt 7y ago
  The latest edition has the Tweedbank line: http://www.projectmapping.co.uk/Reviews/Resources/Barry%20Doe%20railmap%2045.pdf http://www.projectmapping.co.uk/Reviews/Resources/Barry%20Do... There are some other interesting maps at: https://www.nationalrail.co.uk/stations_destinations/maps.aspx https://www.nationalrail.co.uk/stations_destinations/maps.as...

helsinkiandrew 7y ago

I didn't realise how ambitious HS2 is: If you stood by the track, a train could pass you at 360km/h (224mph) every 3 1/2 minutes - the kind of safety and control systems to make that possible must be astounding.

pjc50 7y ago
> the kind of safety and control systems to make that possible must be astounding. I wondered about this, and hit gold on Google: the requirements specification! https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/794108/HS2-HS2-RR-SPE-000-000007_P11_TTS_Main_Body__External_.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... HS2 will, unlike the rest of the UK legacy network, use ETCS: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Train_Control_System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Train_Control_System (at level 2 with the possibility of level 3). Conceptually it's the same as the ancient tokening system - a train requires a token to enter a particular section of rail. Except these are digital tokens granted over a cryptographic protocol over the GSM network or trackside radios. When a train has cleared a particular point, a calculation is made based on the speed and braking distance of the train behind, which is then granted an authority to move further along the track. As long as the train receives a continuous series of valid "movement authority" tokens for the correct sections, it will proceed. If not, it applies the brakes. (That's a really nicely written requirements document - concise, but including rationales for every point. More reading on the crypto: https://www.cs.bham.ac.uk/~tpc/Papers/TRAKS.pdf https://www.cs.bham.ac.uk/~tpc/Papers/TRAKS.pdf )
- Scoundreller 7y ago
  > GSM is no longer being developed outside of GSM-R, the manufacturers have committed to supplying GSM-R till at least 2030. The ERA is considering what action is needed to smoothly transition to a successor system such as GPRS or Edge. While I’m always happy to keep using something that works, « upgrading to EDGE by 2030 » still gives me a laugh.