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So what do you think would happen if no quarantine was in place (because “the flu exists”), the virus spreads and suddenly that 1% mortality rate starts to stac

by orf 7y ago

So what do you think would happen if no quarantine was in place (because “the flu exists”), the virus spreads and suddenly that 1% mortality rate starts to stack up. Is your country ready to handle 1% of its population dying, and many more falling ill? Flu is seasonal - predictable, known and accounted for. When flu season hits the system copes. This virus? Not so much. Sorry you’re stuck on a boat, but it’s for the best.

lisper 7y ago
I'm not saying that nothing should be done. I do think, however, that focusing so much attention on cruise ships is a little ridiculous, and not just because I happen to be on one. The virus us much more likely to spread through airports, but I don't see international air travel being shut down.
- divan 7y ago
  List of airlines that suspended flights to China. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-airlines-factbox/airlines-suspend-china-flights-because-of-coronavirus-idUSKBN1ZU131 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-airlines-fac...
  - lisper 7y ago
    But we have not been to China and we are not going to China. We were originally going to Hong Kong but that plan went out the window over a week ago. We have been denied entry to the Philippines, Taiwan, Viet Nam and Guam (despite the fact that our last landfall was in Guam). How many airlines have suspended service to those destinations?
    - thinkingemote 7y ago
      Two thoughts the first is that quarantines work and the second is that restricting travel across borders do not. You are under quarantine firstly. As a consequence of this you are also being restricted with travel. A boat makes it very easy to do both. Generally closing borders are bad for the sentiments you give: it's unjust, I'm not infected. People will cross a closed border illegally and officials will not be able to know. If you had the opportunity you would leave, right? Open borders allow officials to track those coming in and if necessary quarantine them. Leaky borders have people actively avoiding quarantine and surveillance which could lead to much worse effects
      - lisper 7y ago
        > You are under quarantine. No, we're not. But even if we were, it would be a moot point. Taiwan, Philippines and Guam are closed to all cruise ships. But the airports are still open.
        MR4D 7y ago
        Wait...you're NOT under quarantine? That's messed up. What were the start / destination ports?
        lisper 7y ago
        We started in Guam. We have not made landfall since.
        lisper 7y ago
        Just in case anyone is still following this thread, this is the sort of insanity I'm referring to: https://www.businessinsider.com/westerdam-cruise-ship-denied-entry-five-ports-thailand-no-coronavirus-2020-2 https://www.businessinsider.com/westerdam-cruise-ship-denied... The Westerdam has been in effective quarantine for two weeks, no one on board has the virus, and they are STILL being refused permission to dock just because they came from Hong Kong. We are still en route to Singapore, scheduled to arrive this afternoon. No hint of anything more going awry for us so far, but I'm not going to count any chickens until I've cleared customs back home in the U.S.
        tim333 7y ago
        Glad they let you off in the end.
        lisper 7y ago
        I was actually not on the Westerdam, I was on the Crystal Symphony. We ended up disembarking in Singapore on Feb 12.
    - royroyroys 7y ago
      Has anyone on board been to China in the last few weeks? Also with the H2H transmissions from Singapore (UK & Korea), it might become difficult to get back from Singapore if they go to Code Red.
      - tim333 7y ago
        heading Singapore tomorrow and hopefully the UK on the 17th...
    - JCharante 7y ago
      But there are people on your ship who may have ncov2019 in it's incubation period. I don't see why it's necessary to risk the lives of our nation's elderly, who are very much loved, who are most at risk from these viruses. In addition while this viruses transmission to cats is unconfirmed unlike the h1n1 where it did happen, I also don't see why it's necessary to risk it. It just takes 1 person in the incubation period infecting someone else who frequents a cat cafe to devastate a community (and the cats would get a bunch of people sick as well). The US has a travel ban for foreigners who have been in China, but they also ask people to self quarantee if they've been in contact with those from areas where the virus is more widespread, which is everyone on your ship. It's unfortunate to be stuck on a ship and it's unfortunate that your captain didn't anticipate these measures.
      - lisper 7y ago
        Our last landfall was in Guam. The passengers who transited through Hong Kong embarked in Guam. They were admitted to the U.S. Technically, we are still in the U.S. So any U.S. travel ban is (or at least should be) irrelevant to our situation.
adventured 7y ago
Further, it's very clearly higher than a 1% mortality rate. Those deaths are from the lower outbreak figures from weeks ago, as people typically don't die in the first two weeks of infection. According to doctors dealing with this in China, it's the third week that is where patients are dying. The questionable official numbers have us at 40,171 infections with 908 dead. That's a 2.2% mortality rate off the max figures. More realistically let's go back in time, conservatively, two weeks ago: on 1/27 there were only around ~4,500 infections. That's a mortality rate a lot closer to 20% (even if you inflate the infection numbers, it's high). Those 4,500 people are the ones that have overwhelmingly contributed to the 908 dead figure that exists today. Unless one assumes there were a lot more than 4,500 infections two weeks ago; or people are dying a lot faster than reported. With tens of thousands of infections in the last two weeks (again, at the supposed numbers), how many will be dead at the given rate, in a few more weeks? Something obviously doesn't add up with these figures, one direction or another.
deepGem 7y ago
I don't think the Corona Virus is as benign as a flu virus. Sure the mortality rate is 1% but that is what we know today. No one knows what this Virus is capable of, in terms of mutation etc, and it is because of these unknowns organisations and public officials are on alert and taking quarantining steps - rightly so. It is foolhardy to undermine WHO's cause for concern. I am sorry you are stuck on a ship and I do hope you get to disembark in Singapore.
- randyrand 7y ago
  Corona viruses are a well known class of virus. Sure, this is a new strain, but the flu is a new strain each year too
- tim333 7y ago
  Yeah from the Singapore numbers, 45 cases and 7 in critical care. I don't recall seeing those sort of numbers with flu. edit - googling a bit the % going into critical care seems to be about 0.2% for flu vs the above about 15% for coronavirus.

by orf 7y ago

lisper 7y ago

I'm not saying that nothing should be done. I do think, however, that focusing so much attention on cruise ships is a little ridiculous, and not just because I happen to be on one. The virus us much more likely to spread through airports, but I don't see international air travel being shut down.

divan 7y ago
List of airlines that suspended flights to China. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-airlines-factbox/airlines-suspend-china-flights-because-of-coronavirus-idUSKBN1ZU131 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-airlines-fac...
- lisper 7y ago
  But we have not been to China and we are not going to China. We were originally going to Hong Kong but that plan went out the window over a week ago. We have been denied entry to the Philippines, Taiwan, Viet Nam and Guam (despite the fact that our last landfall was in Guam). How many airlines have suspended service to those destinations?
  - thinkingemote 7y ago
    Two thoughts the first is that quarantines work and the second is that restricting travel across borders do not. You are under quarantine firstly. As a consequence of this you are also being restricted with travel. A boat makes it very easy to do both. Generally closing borders are bad for the sentiments you give: it's unjust, I'm not infected. People will cross a closed border illegally and officials will not be able to know. If you had the opportunity you would leave, right? Open borders allow officials to track those coming in and if necessary quarantine them. Leaky borders have people actively avoiding quarantine and surveillance which could lead to much worse effects
    - lisper 7y ago
      > You are under quarantine. No, we're not. But even if we were, it would be a moot point. Taiwan, Philippines and Guam are closed to all cruise ships. But the airports are still open.
      - MR4D 7y ago
        Wait...you're NOT under quarantine? That's messed up. What were the start / destination ports?
        lisper 7y ago
        We started in Guam. We have not made landfall since.
        lisper 7y ago
        Just in case anyone is still following this thread, this is the sort of insanity I'm referring to: https://www.businessinsider.com/westerdam-cruise-ship-denied-entry-five-ports-thailand-no-coronavirus-2020-2 https://www.businessinsider.com/westerdam-cruise-ship-denied... The Westerdam has been in effective quarantine for two weeks, no one on board has the virus, and they are STILL being refused permission to dock just because they came from Hong Kong. We are still en route to Singapore, scheduled to arrive this afternoon. No hint of anything more going awry for us so far, but I'm not going to count any chickens until I've cleared customs back home in the U.S.
        tim333 7y ago
        Glad they let you off in the end.
        lisper 7y ago
        I was actually not on the Westerdam, I was on the Crystal Symphony. We ended up disembarking in Singapore on Feb 12.
  - royroyroys 7y ago
    Has anyone on board been to China in the last few weeks? Also with the H2H transmissions from Singapore (UK & Korea), it might become difficult to get back from Singapore if they go to Code Red.
    - tim333 7y ago
      heading Singapore tomorrow and hopefully the UK on the 17th...
  - JCharante 7y ago
    But there are people on your ship who may have ncov2019 in it's incubation period. I don't see why it's necessary to risk the lives of our nation's elderly, who are very much loved, who are most at risk from these viruses. In addition while this viruses transmission to cats is unconfirmed unlike the h1n1 where it did happen, I also don't see why it's necessary to risk it. It just takes 1 person in the incubation period infecting someone else who frequents a cat cafe to devastate a community (and the cats would get a bunch of people sick as well). The US has a travel ban for foreigners who have been in China, but they also ask people to self quarantee if they've been in contact with those from areas where the virus is more widespread, which is everyone on your ship. It's unfortunate to be stuck on a ship and it's unfortunate that your captain didn't anticipate these measures.
    - lisper 7y ago
      Our last landfall was in Guam. The passengers who transited through Hong Kong embarked in Guam. They were admitted to the U.S. Technically, we are still in the U.S. So any U.S. travel ban is (or at least should be) irrelevant to our situation.

adventured 7y ago

Further, it's very clearly higher than a 1% mortality rate. Those deaths are from the lower outbreak figures from weeks ago, as people typically don't die in the first two weeks of infection. According to doctors dealing with this in China, it's the third week that is where patients are dying. The questionable official numbers have us at 40,171 infections with 908 dead. That's a 2.2% mortality rate off the max figures. More realistically let's go back in time, conservatively, two weeks ago: on 1/27 there were only around ~4,500 infections. That's a mortality rate a lot closer to 20% (even if you inflate the infection numbers, it's high). Those 4,500 people are the ones that have overwhelmingly contributed to the 908 dead figure that exists today. Unless one assumes there were a lot more than 4,500 infections two weeks ago; or people are dying a lot faster than reported. With tens of thousands of infections in the last two weeks (again, at the supposed numbers), how many will be dead at the given rate, in a few more weeks? Something obviously doesn't add up with these figures, one direction or another.

deepGem 7y ago

I don't think the Corona Virus is as benign as a flu virus. Sure the mortality rate is 1% but that is what we know today. No one knows what this Virus is capable of, in terms of mutation etc, and it is because of these unknowns organisations and public officials are on alert and taking quarantining steps - rightly so. It is foolhardy to undermine WHO's cause for concern. I am sorry you are stuck on a ship and I do hope you get to disembark in Singapore.

randyrand 7y ago
Corona viruses are a well known class of virus. Sure, this is a new strain, but the flu is a new strain each year too
tim333 7y ago
Yeah from the Singapore numbers, 45 cases and 7 in critical care. I don't recall seeing those sort of numbers with flu. edit - googling a bit the % going into critical care seems to be about 0.2% for flu vs the above about 15% for coronavirus.