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So, today we're learning about 5 infections from a man coming from Singapore (not China) staying there in Contamines-Montjoie from 01/27 to 01/28. So we're now

So, today we're learning about 5 infections from a man coming from Singapore (not China) staying there in Contamines-Montjoie from 01/27 to 01/28. So we're now learning about infections from almost 2 weeks ago, almost a week before the last major airlines stopped their regular flight to/from China. And flights from/to Singapore are still going to this day. Makes you wonder how many people slipped through since then ... (sorry for my broken non native English)

cs702 7y ago
Personally, I'm assuming this new virus has already gone global, with the scale of the outbreak in most major metropolitan areas a few weeks behind Wuhan. For practical purposes, I'm already lumping this new virus in my mind with the "seasonal flu," variants of which travel around the globe every year, requiring annual shots. It seems that most people who get infected have only mild symptoms. Consider: Many major cities in China already have infected populations in the hundreds or thousands, and growing: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... -- these are official, confirmed figures. See also https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930260-9 https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820... for maximum-likelihood estimates of the size of the outbreak as of month-end.
- Cantbekhan 7y ago
  Personally I'm not afraid of the sanitary aspect of this virus. I don't think the mortality is extremely alarming per se. What I'm afraid of is the emotional population reaction and the practical impact on daily services fueled by FUD and sensationalist media coverage. Schools closing unnecessarily forcing many working people to stay home to babysit their kids. Teachers/Drivers/Cashiers going on strike to avoid risks while there is a now globally confirmed shortage of face masks (which might or might not be very useful anyway but it will keep people working if they feel it helps). It's virtually impossible to find a useless face mask where I am in the EU (at a normal non 10x inflated price from opportunistic vendors) and even less possible to find a useful one (N95/FFP2/FFP3 rating). Interesting times for sure.
  - cs702 7y ago
    > I'm not afraid of the sanitary aspect of this virus. I don't think the mortality is extremely alarming per se. Agree. It seems to be most like another global strand of flu.
    - xapata 7y ago
      And the flu kills 10s of thousands annually in the US, despite our widespread vaccination system.
    - platz 7y ago
      Do doctors typically suit up in full biohazard gear when confronting flu?
      - nelblu 7y ago
        > Do doctors typically suit up in full biohazard gear when confronting flu? This was posted earlier on HN Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU - https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebook-life-and-death-in-a-wuhan-coronavirus-icu https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebo...
  - James_Henry 7y ago
    From what I've read, the virus can be a pretty nasty and long one even for those that recover from it. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebook-life-and-death-in-a-wuhan-coronavirus-icu https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebo...
  - mantap 7y ago
    The mortality rate is unknown. The best estimate is on the order of 1%, but it could be a factor of 10 either way. The mortality rate will be different depending on the health system, since a significant number of people with this virus require either supplementary oxygen or more seriously ICU care. If this were to become an epidemic in India for example, a higher mortality rate would be expected. In Africa it could be severely bad due to the large numbers of people with AIDS and the tendency of this virus to suppress the immune system.
- hef19898 7y ago
  Why is it that everybody is using sources other than the official reports? I mean it can't be that difficult to just go to who.int, right? Maybe the best HN could do, is to help the WHO to get their Corona Virus content right on top of the Google search results. Also something Google could do.
  - cs702 7y ago
    The figures in that map at Johns Hopkins are official, confirmed figures. Did you actually look at the map?
    - hef19898 7y ago
      Unless number increase by a factor 10 since February 7th official, confirmed cases in China are 31,211. Source: WHO situation report from Feb. 7th. EDIT: Counter point to the infected population in the hundreds of thousands you made in the parent. EDIT 2: Misread 100s or 1000s for hundreds of thousands. So yeah, official numbers.
      - yread 7y ago
        GP said hundreds OR thousands
        hef19898 7y ago
        Damn, thanks for pointing it out! I thus stand corrected!
        cs702 7y ago
        FWIW, I just re-read what I wrote, and noticed how easy it is to misread misread "hundreds or thousands" as "hundreds of thousands." Next time I will use "to" instead.
    - hef19898 7y ago
      Don't worry, luckily someone else called me out on it! Funny what a single letter can change right?
- ineedasername 7y ago
  It may in time reach the level of background noise of the flu, but we're years away, decades away from that. The human body has had a few generations to build up baseline immunity to the flu, and we're at minimum a year or so away from a vaccine, likely 3 or 4 before it can reach the industrial scale and distribution infrastructure of the flu vaccine. Even that flu virus, well established, had some minor snafu a few years back and it took months to get back up to speed. In the meantime, the death rate seems more than an order of magnitude higher, and is especially lethal in the > 70 population. So, if this becomes an insurmountable pandemic, you're right that it may eventually reach a flu-like equilibrium and treatability, but we're talking deaths in the millions until then, unless it can be brought under control before that happens.
- JauntTrooper 7y ago
  The mortality rate could be an order of magnitude higher than the flu. The flu in the US kills less than 0.1% of infected. 12,000 - 80,000 people die every year, just in the US. (where nearly half the population gets a flu vaccine every year and there is health infrastructure to treat the worst cases). The new coronavirus' mortality rate is very unknown, but if it's anywhere close to the 2% number, and it spreads in a similar way to the flu, it could easily cause the deaths of millions of people.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- agumonkey 7y ago
  tbh epidemiologist said non asian countries would lag 7-14 days after China, and so far the yellow curve is still flatter than I thought it'd be.
  - pbourke 7y ago
    The New Year holiday in China clearly accelerated the spread of the disease there, so I don’t see how you could extrapolate from the situation there to other countries.
    - agumonkey 7y ago
      well all for the better
mytailorisrich 7y ago
Singapore seems to be the worst affected country out of China. If you read the news the virus is spreading person to person there in an uncontrolled way. Considering the relatively small size of the country and its high population density I agree that it might be a higher risk that China as a whole.
- m4rtink 7y ago
  I have read an opinion that it is just due to the Singapore government working really hard at tracking, containing and reporting all the cases. That might look like more cases compared to countries that either don't care or under-report.
  - mantap 7y ago
    It's not the number of cases confirmed in Singapore that people are concerned about. It's the number of cases confirmed in other countries, from people who have recent travel history to Singapore.
- oefrha 7y ago
  Actually Japan has 89 cases so far and Singapore has 40. But of course it’s much smaller than Japan. Edit: Okay the 89 number I saw includes 64 cases on a Japanese cruise ship.
  - wolco 7y ago
    Do those cases count the criuse ship stuck? That might explain the high number.
    - franknine 7y ago
      Yes, 26 domestic cases and 64 cases on Diamond Princess cruise, total 90 cases
  - mytailorisrich 7y ago
    This is all because of the cruise ship. Things seems under control in Japan.

cs702 7y ago

Personally, I'm assuming this new virus has already gone global, with the scale of the outbreak in most major metropolitan areas a few weeks behind Wuhan. For practical purposes, I'm already lumping this new virus in my mind with the "seasonal flu," variants of which travel around the globe every year, requiring annual shots. It seems that most people who get infected have only mild symptoms. Consider: Many major cities in China already have infected populations in the hundreds or thousands, and growing: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... -- these are official, confirmed figures. See also https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930260-9 https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820... for maximum-likelihood estimates of the size of the outbreak as of month-end.

Cantbekhan 7y ago
Personally I'm not afraid of the sanitary aspect of this virus. I don't think the mortality is extremely alarming per se. What I'm afraid of is the emotional population reaction and the practical impact on daily services fueled by FUD and sensationalist media coverage. Schools closing unnecessarily forcing many working people to stay home to babysit their kids. Teachers/Drivers/Cashiers going on strike to avoid risks while there is a now globally confirmed shortage of face masks (which might or might not be very useful anyway but it will keep people working if they feel it helps). It's virtually impossible to find a useless face mask where I am in the EU (at a normal non 10x inflated price from opportunistic vendors) and even less possible to find a useful one (N95/FFP2/FFP3 rating). Interesting times for sure.
- cs702 7y ago
  > I'm not afraid of the sanitary aspect of this virus. I don't think the mortality is extremely alarming per se. Agree. It seems to be most like another global strand of flu.
  - xapata 7y ago
    And the flu kills 10s of thousands annually in the US, despite our widespread vaccination system.
  - platz 7y ago
    Do doctors typically suit up in full biohazard gear when confronting flu?
    - nelblu 7y ago
      > Do doctors typically suit up in full biohazard gear when confronting flu? This was posted earlier on HN Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU - https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebook-life-and-death-in-a-wuhan-coronavirus-icu https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebo...
- James_Henry 7y ago
  From what I've read, the virus can be a pretty nasty and long one even for those that recover from it. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebook-life-and-death-in-a-wuhan-coronavirus-icu https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebo...
- mantap 7y ago
  The mortality rate is unknown. The best estimate is on the order of 1%, but it could be a factor of 10 either way. The mortality rate will be different depending on the health system, since a significant number of people with this virus require either supplementary oxygen or more seriously ICU care. If this were to become an epidemic in India for example, a higher mortality rate would be expected. In Africa it could be severely bad due to the large numbers of people with AIDS and the tendency of this virus to suppress the immune system.
hef19898 7y ago
Why is it that everybody is using sources other than the official reports? I mean it can't be that difficult to just go to who.int, right? Maybe the best HN could do, is to help the WHO to get their Corona Virus content right on top of the Google search results. Also something Google could do.
- cs702 7y ago
  The figures in that map at Johns Hopkins are official, confirmed figures. Did you actually look at the map?
  - hef19898 7y ago
    Unless number increase by a factor 10 since February 7th official, confirmed cases in China are 31,211. Source: WHO situation report from Feb. 7th. EDIT: Counter point to the infected population in the hundreds of thousands you made in the parent. EDIT 2: Misread 100s or 1000s for hundreds of thousands. So yeah, official numbers.
    - yread 7y ago
      GP said hundreds OR thousands
      - hef19898 7y ago
        Damn, thanks for pointing it out! I thus stand corrected!
        cs702 7y ago
        FWIW, I just re-read what I wrote, and noticed how easy it is to misread misread "hundreds or thousands" as "hundreds of thousands." Next time I will use "to" instead.
  - hef19898 7y ago
    Don't worry, luckily someone else called me out on it! Funny what a single letter can change right?
ineedasername 7y ago
It may in time reach the level of background noise of the flu, but we're years away, decades away from that. The human body has had a few generations to build up baseline immunity to the flu, and we're at minimum a year or so away from a vaccine, likely 3 or 4 before it can reach the industrial scale and distribution infrastructure of the flu vaccine. Even that flu virus, well established, had some minor snafu a few years back and it took months to get back up to speed. In the meantime, the death rate seems more than an order of magnitude higher, and is especially lethal in the > 70 population. So, if this becomes an insurmountable pandemic, you're right that it may eventually reach a flu-like equilibrium and treatability, but we're talking deaths in the millions until then, unless it can be brought under control before that happens.
JauntTrooper 7y ago
The mortality rate could be an order of magnitude higher than the flu. The flu in the US kills less than 0.1% of infected. 12,000 - 80,000 people die every year, just in the US. (where nearly half the population gets a flu vaccine every year and there is health infrastructure to treat the worst cases). The new coronavirus' mortality rate is very unknown, but if it's anywhere close to the 2% number, and it spreads in a similar way to the flu, it could easily cause the deaths of millions of people.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
agumonkey 7y ago
tbh epidemiologist said non asian countries would lag 7-14 days after China, and so far the yellow curve is still flatter than I thought it'd be.
- pbourke 7y ago
  The New Year holiday in China clearly accelerated the spread of the disease there, so I don’t see how you could extrapolate from the situation there to other countries.
  - agumonkey 7y ago
    well all for the better

mytailorisrich 7y ago

Singapore seems to be the worst affected country out of China. If you read the news the virus is spreading person to person there in an uncontrolled way. Considering the relatively small size of the country and its high population density I agree that it might be a higher risk that China as a whole.

m4rtink 7y ago
I have read an opinion that it is just due to the Singapore government working really hard at tracking, containing and reporting all the cases. That might look like more cases compared to countries that either don't care or under-report.
- mantap 7y ago
  It's not the number of cases confirmed in Singapore that people are concerned about. It's the number of cases confirmed in other countries, from people who have recent travel history to Singapore.
oefrha 7y ago
Actually Japan has 89 cases so far and Singapore has 40. But of course it’s much smaller than Japan. Edit: Okay the 89 number I saw includes 64 cases on a Japanese cruise ship.
- wolco 7y ago
  Do those cases count the criuse ship stuck? That might explain the high number.
  - franknine 7y ago
    Yes, 26 domestic cases and 64 cases on Diamond Princess cruise, total 90 cases
- mytailorisrich 7y ago
  This is all because of the cruise ship. Things seems under control in Japan.