4 ms·

Experts envision two scenarios if the new coronavirus isn’t contained

72 points by ilamont 7y ago

kingkawn 7y ago
Given the drop off of the infection rate growth relative to its spread earlier it appears that the quarantine measures put in place by China are having some success.
- shakna 7y ago
  > Given the drop off of the infection rate growth relative to its spread earlier it appears that the quarantine measures put in place by China are having some success. That drop-off rate might also be explained by the information suppression campaign that occurred during the early days of the virus. The origin point might simply be earlier than is acknowledged.
- turk73 7y ago
  I don't believe that. There was a guy who made a Youtube video showing the hundreds and hundreds of daily flights coming and going from China even weeks after the outbreak. He said "there's no quarantine if you have money." What I am wondering is why no significant outbreak in Indonesia? Philippines? Southeast Asia? India? If it is a pandemic, those countries will be hit hard. I would also expect Rio, Mexico City, to see huge increases in cases before Europe and the US. So far that has not happened.
  - ValentineC 7y ago
    > What I am wondering is why no significant outbreak in Indonesia? Philippines? Southeast Asia? India? Those countries might be reporting the cases as influenza or pneumonia, and not the coronavirus.
- sjcsjc 7y ago
  https://youtu.be/ALQTdCYGISw https://youtu.be/ALQTdCYGISw Neil Ferguson of Imperial College estimates the current rate of new infections per day in China is 50,000.
- shock-value 7y ago
  This assumes that neither testing bottlenecking nor information suppression is a factor with respect to reported numbers, which is far from certain.
  - kingkawn 7y ago
    I am not arguing that information isn’t being suppressed, but they’ve essentially closed all public activity in China. There has to be an impact from this beyond just censorship
O5vYtytb 7y ago
> All four, in particular HKU1, can cause pneumonia, and sometimes death. It is rare enough that researchers do not have good estimates of its prevalence or virulence, but two of the others have been better studied. I wonder how many cases of influenza are confirmed via testing? How many cases could be caused by coronaviruses? I know from experience that I've been to the doctor with fever / aches / respiratory issues and been told I have the flu, only to request a test that results negative. They typically don't test for anything else.
- maxerickson 7y ago
  In the US, all of the reported cases would be confirmed by testing, and the number of specimens tested is also published: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
tcpip 7y ago
Current Status Dashboard: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
- clarry 7y ago
  What happened to the map? It's been gone for a while now.
  - yasp 7y ago
    It works for me.
johnchristopher 7y ago
That site is fucking wicked. Every time the space bar is pressed the newsletter form pops up over the article.
yodsanklai 7y ago
I found that the media aren't doing a very good job. It seems that every new case leads to a new article, which isn't really helpful to understand the spread of the virus, the possible scenarios, how are the countries prepared, how worried should we be, what is the latest knowledge on the virus and so on. The last think I need to know is that some taxi driver got infected. I also notice that people aren't following recommendations. For instance, I saw everybody wearing a mask at Singapore airport but I couldn't find any official recommendation saying to do so, unless you're sick. So should I wear a mask?
- soared 7y ago
  https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200208-sitrep-19-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=6e091ce6_2 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... The last section on the last page has WHO’s recommendations for the public.
  - yodsanklai 7y ago
    "Avoiding close contact with people suffering from acute respiratory infections. Frequent hand-washing, especially after direct contact with ill people or their environment. Avoiding unprotected contact with farm or wild animals. People with symptoms of acute respiratory infection should practice cough etiquette (maintain distance, cover coughs and sneezes with disposable tissues or clothing, and wash hands). Within health care facilities, enhance standard infection prevention and control practices in hospitals, especially in emergency departments." Yes, I read this. They don't recommend to wear a mask. I'm quite surprised to see masks everywhere nonetheless.
    - ethbro 7y ago
      I asked a friend who lives in Hong Kong, when I visited a few years back. About 15% of people were wearing masks at the time. His explanation, 'Everyone did it during the SARS period, and then some people just kept doing it.'
    - legulere 7y ago
noahmotion 7y ago
> It’s still possible that quarantines and travel bans will first halt the outbreak and then eradicate the microbe, and the world will never see 2019-nCoV again, as epidemiologist Dr. Mike Ryan, head of health emergencies at the World Health Organization, told STAT on Saturday. That’s what happened with SARS in 2003. Is absence of SARS for 17 years really equivalent to never seeing it again?
- SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
  “Never seeing it again” here contrasts with what happened for the 2009 H1N1 virus, which is now a recurring part of the annual flu season.

72 points by ilamont 7y ago

Given the drop off of the infection rate growth relative to its spread earlier it appears that the quarantine measures put in place by China are having some success.

shakna 7y ago
> Given the drop off of the infection rate growth relative to its spread earlier it appears that the quarantine measures put in place by China are having some success. That drop-off rate might also be explained by the information suppression campaign that occurred during the early days of the virus. The origin point might simply be earlier than is acknowledged.
turk73 7y ago
I don't believe that. There was a guy who made a Youtube video showing the hundreds and hundreds of daily flights coming and going from China even weeks after the outbreak. He said "there's no quarantine if you have money." What I am wondering is why no significant outbreak in Indonesia? Philippines? Southeast Asia? India? If it is a pandemic, those countries will be hit hard. I would also expect Rio, Mexico City, to see huge increases in cases before Europe and the US. So far that has not happened.
- ValentineC 7y ago
  > What I am wondering is why no significant outbreak in Indonesia? Philippines? Southeast Asia? India? Those countries might be reporting the cases as influenza or pneumonia, and not the coronavirus.
sjcsjc 7y ago
https://youtu.be/ALQTdCYGISw https://youtu.be/ALQTdCYGISw Neil Ferguson of Imperial College estimates the current rate of new infections per day in China is 50,000.
shock-value 7y ago
This assumes that neither testing bottlenecking nor information suppression is a factor with respect to reported numbers, which is far from certain.
- kingkawn 7y ago
  I am not arguing that information isn’t being suppressed, but they’ve essentially closed all public activity in China. There has to be an impact from this beyond just censorship

O5vYtytb 7y ago

> All four, in particular HKU1, can cause pneumonia, and sometimes death. It is rare enough that researchers do not have good estimates of its prevalence or virulence, but two of the others have been better studied. I wonder how many cases of influenza are confirmed via testing? How many cases could be caused by coronaviruses? I know from experience that I've been to the doctor with fever / aches / respiratory issues and been told I have the flu, only to request a test that results negative. They typically don't test for anything else.

maxerickson 7y ago
In the US, all of the reported cases would be confirmed by testing, and the number of specimens tested is also published: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

tcpip 7y ago

Current Status Dashboard: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

clarry 7y ago
What happened to the map? It's been gone for a while now.
- yasp 7y ago
  It works for me.

johnchristopher 7y ago

That site is fucking wicked. Every time the space bar is pressed the newsletter form pops up over the article.

yodsanklai 7y ago

I found that the media aren't doing a very good job. It seems that every new case leads to a new article, which isn't really helpful to understand the spread of the virus, the possible scenarios, how are the countries prepared, how worried should we be, what is the latest knowledge on the virus and so on. The last think I need to know is that some taxi driver got infected. I also notice that people aren't following recommendations. For instance, I saw everybody wearing a mask at Singapore airport but I couldn't find any official recommendation saying to do so, unless you're sick. So should I wear a mask?

soared 7y ago
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200208-sitrep-19-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=6e091ce6_2 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... The last section on the last page has WHO’s recommendations for the public.
- yodsanklai 7y ago
  "Avoiding close contact with people suffering from acute respiratory infections. Frequent hand-washing, especially after direct contact with ill people or their environment. Avoiding unprotected contact with farm or wild animals. People with symptoms of acute respiratory infection should practice cough etiquette (maintain distance, cover coughs and sneezes with disposable tissues or clothing, and wash hands). Within health care facilities, enhance standard infection prevention and control practices in hospitals, especially in emergency departments." Yes, I read this. They don't recommend to wear a mask. I'm quite surprised to see masks everywhere nonetheless.
  - ethbro 7y ago
    I asked a friend who lives in Hong Kong, when I visited a few years back. About 15% of people were wearing masks at the time. His explanation, 'Everyone did it during the SARS period, and then some people just kept doing it.'
  - legulere 7y ago

noahmotion 7y ago

> It’s still possible that quarantines and travel bans will first halt the outbreak and then eradicate the microbe, and the world will never see 2019-nCoV again, as epidemiologist Dr. Mike Ryan, head of health emergencies at the World Health Organization, told STAT on Saturday. That’s what happened with SARS in 2003. Is absence of SARS for 17 years really equivalent to never seeing it again?

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
“Never seeing it again” here contrasts with what happened for the 2009 H1N1 virus, which is now a recurring part of the annual flu season.