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> We shouldn't treat the results of polls as gospel truth, but we should trust them more than we trust our intuitive sense of what's gotta be true. Yes and no.

by Seenso 7y ago

> We shouldn't treat the results of polls as gospel truth, but we should trust them more than we trust our intuitive sense of what's gotta be true. Yes and no. Polls shouldn't be treated as gospel truth, but they shouldn't override our intuitions either. If there's a discrepancy, it means you have to dig deeper find the truth.

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
I think there's a level of discrepancy where they should override our intuitions. If I thought most Americans were unhappy these days, my reaction to seeing this poll would be to question how my intuition went so wrong, not to look for ways the might be biased.
- Seenso 7y ago
  > If I thought most Americans were unhappy these days, my reaction to seeing this poll would be to question how my intuition went so wrong, not to look for ways the might be biased. That's putting undue weight on quantified data, and letting it shut down attempts to actually find the truth. Polls can be biased or badly designed, metrics can be gamed or not actually measure what they claim to, or the poll could be founded some flawed assumptions. If you assume your intuition is wrong when you see a "strong" poll result, you'll never discover errors of the kind I just enumerated.
- guidance 7y ago
  > 'If I thought most Americans were unhappy these days, my reaction to seeing this poll would be to question how my intuition went so wrong, not to look for ways the might be biased.' Your comment reminds me of this anecdote: > "What I've noticed from users is that a windows user will blame the computer every time even if it is their own mistake, and an apple user will blame themselves every time even if the hardware failed. > "Apple users know they have the Fancy Name Brand that Cool People(TM) use, so they have multiple levels of psychological aversion to blaming it for anything. They would be less cool by extension. And the brand image doesn't place any value on being capable of using "regular" technology, so they take no hit to their hipster image by blaming themselves. > "It is really the same as any other name brand item. If a person buys name brand jeans and they tear, they're going to blame themselves for not taking better care of something expensive. Another person who buys a different brand gets mad that it didn't last longer because they only tried to use it in the "normal" way. If they blame it for anything, even its own real failings, then they lose the snob value." The interpretation of said anecdote as it applies to your situation is left as an exercise to the reader.

by Seenso 7y ago

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago

I think there's a level of discrepancy where they should override our intuitions. If I thought most Americans were unhappy these days, my reaction to seeing this poll would be to question how my intuition went so wrong, not to look for ways the might be biased.

Seenso 7y ago
> If I thought most Americans were unhappy these days, my reaction to seeing this poll would be to question how my intuition went so wrong, not to look for ways the might be biased. That's putting undue weight on quantified data, and letting it shut down attempts to actually find the truth. Polls can be biased or badly designed, metrics can be gamed or not actually measure what they claim to, or the poll could be founded some flawed assumptions. If you assume your intuition is wrong when you see a "strong" poll result, you'll never discover errors of the kind I just enumerated.
guidance 7y ago
> 'If I thought most Americans were unhappy these days, my reaction to seeing this poll would be to question how my intuition went so wrong, not to look for ways the might be biased.' Your comment reminds me of this anecdote: > "What I've noticed from users is that a windows user will blame the computer every time even if it is their own mistake, and an apple user will blame themselves every time even if the hardware failed. > "Apple users know they have the Fancy Name Brand that Cool People(TM) use, so they have multiple levels of psychological aversion to blaming it for anything. They would be less cool by extension. And the brand image doesn't place any value on being capable of using "regular" technology, so they take no hit to their hipster image by blaming themselves. > "It is really the same as any other name brand item. If a person buys name brand jeans and they tear, they're going to blame themselves for not taking better care of something expensive. Another person who buys a different brand gets mad that it didn't last longer because they only tried to use it in the "normal" way. If they blame it for anything, even its own real failings, then they lose the snob value." The interpretation of said anecdote as it applies to your situation is left as an exercise to the reader.