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>Even if the world wasn't in the grip of a respiratory pandemic It hasn't been declared a pandemic yet - Pandemics require home-grown native infective populati

>Even if the world wasn't in the grip of a respiratory pandemic It hasn't been declared a pandemic yet - Pandemics require home-grown native infective populations in multiple countries, I believe.

bordercases 7y ago
How many countries? https://coronavirus.zone/ https://coronavirus.zone/ The virus is more lethal than SARS was on the same timeframe.
- loriverkutya 7y ago
  If you trust the Chinese numbers. However based on interviews those number cannot be correct since there are multiple people with symptoms who does not goes to hospital or anywhere, just try to survive at home, so if they are affected by corona and not with the regular flu virus they still not appearing in the statistics.
  - hyperpape 7y ago
    Would this not have also been the case for SARS? If there are two underestimates, is there a way to compare them reliably?
    - jerf 7y ago
      In general, only if you can be very specific about exactly how underestimated they are, which is equivalent to the problem of knowing the correct values in the first place, so, basically, no. (Sometimes statistics can help you out, but I think that's best understood as a set of fairly specific exceptions with very strong conditions on them, rather than the rule.)
      - bordercases 7y ago
        Here's a paper that explores where underestimates may exist: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020495v1.article-metrics https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020495v...
- marcosdumay 7y ago
  You are missing the "home-grown" part. The virus seems to only be spreading through China, plus, maybe HK. Everywhere else it's still contained.
  - not_a_moth 7y ago
    Singapore has reported several cases of local transmission, no ties to China. https://www.moh.gov.sg/2019-ncov-wuhan https://www.moh.gov.sg/2019-ncov-wuhan
  - billfruit 7y ago
    People have been infected locally in Thailand, and by reports one of the UK persons infected got it in Singapore, so the case may be that it isn't contained in other countries as well.
raverbashing 7y ago
Still, I don't think it's a good idea to have a congress where a non-trivial number of people might have been in China in the 10 days preceding it.

>Even if the world wasn't in the grip of a respiratory pandemic It hasn't been declared a pandemic yet - Pandemics require home-grown native infective populations in multiple countries, I believe.

bordercases 7y ago

How many countries? https://coronavirus.zone/ https://coronavirus.zone/ The virus is more lethal than SARS was on the same timeframe.

loriverkutya 7y ago
If you trust the Chinese numbers. However based on interviews those number cannot be correct since there are multiple people with symptoms who does not goes to hospital or anywhere, just try to survive at home, so if they are affected by corona and not with the regular flu virus they still not appearing in the statistics.
- hyperpape 7y ago
  Would this not have also been the case for SARS? If there are two underestimates, is there a way to compare them reliably?
  - jerf 7y ago
    In general, only if you can be very specific about exactly how underestimated they are, which is equivalent to the problem of knowing the correct values in the first place, so, basically, no. (Sometimes statistics can help you out, but I think that's best understood as a set of fairly specific exceptions with very strong conditions on them, rather than the rule.)
    - bordercases 7y ago
      Here's a paper that explores where underestimates may exist: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020495v1.article-metrics https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020495v...
marcosdumay 7y ago
You are missing the "home-grown" part. The virus seems to only be spreading through China, plus, maybe HK. Everywhere else it's still contained.
- not_a_moth 7y ago
  Singapore has reported several cases of local transmission, no ties to China. https://www.moh.gov.sg/2019-ncov-wuhan https://www.moh.gov.sg/2019-ncov-wuhan
- billfruit 7y ago
  People have been infected locally in Thailand, and by reports one of the UK persons infected got it in Singapore, so the case may be that it isn't contained in other countries as well.

raverbashing 7y ago

Still, I don't think it's a good idea to have a congress where a non-trivial number of people might have been in China in the 10 days preceding it.