That depends on how we define "our world". For each individual, the most important parameter of "our world" is probably how (dis)satisfied we are. Humans are

That depends on how we define "our world". For each individual, the most important parameter of "our world" is probably how (dis)satisfied we are. Humans are not solitary animals, but a social species. We should not limit ourselves to solitary risk, but also consider social risk. Consider listing your N closest loved ones (I will assume 20). Consider a case fatality rate F (I will use China's average 2.1% which may correspond very well with any health care system that is pathologically overrun by sheer amount of cases, see [1]). Consider I the fraction of the global population that has been uniformly infected. What is the probability that not all of your N loved ones survive? P( not all of my N loved ones survive corona outbreak) = 1 - P( all of my N loved ones survive corona outbreak ) = 1 - P( a person was not infected or survives infection) ^ N = 1 - (1 - P( a person is infected and dies from the infection ) ) ^ N = 1 - (1 - P( a person is infected ) * P( a person dies given he was infected ) ) = 1 - (1 - (I * F) ) ^ N For example: Q: "What is the probability not all of my 20 loved ones survive, assuming 80% of the populace will experience infection, and a case fatality rate of 2.1%?" A: P = 1 - (1 - 0.8 * 0.021) ^ 20 = 28.7% that one or more of these friends will die. This is remarkably higher than the individual risk of 1.68% (0.8 * 2.1%) which only holds for egoists. Let no one tell you what probability is acceptable for you, nor how many friends you should have, certainly let no government tell you to think only about yourself, by setting N = 1. Another example: Q: "Assume just 10% of the population was infected, with the same case fatality rate of 2.1% but this time you have 100 friends" A: P = 1 - ( 1 - ( 0.1 * 0.021 ) ) ^ 100 = 18.96 % And always remember, you may have many friends, but your best friend is statistics, like her or not. And this best friend can not die. [1] According to [1a] China announced an average national fatality rate of 2.1% (their words not my calculation, us world citizens have no access to the WHO database of anonymized CRF CORE and DAILY forms). Let us compare with the cases treated outside of China: According to [1b] at their sum total of international (without Chinese regions) we have: TOTAL 216 (infected) 1 (dead) 4 serious Now 2.1% * 216 = 4.536 deaths expected following official China fatality rate. Well, internationally we see 1 death and 4 individuals in serious condition. The out-of-china hospitals are not currently overrun. If they too at some point get overrun, I would expect those 4 to die as well, and our international numbers match up with China's 2.1%. [1a] http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048815/coronavirus-china-death-toll-hits-425-new-cases-hubei-jump http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048815/coron... [1b] https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus...