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I think 50 years is being overly pessimistic. Self-driving in temperate climates is probably pretty close (<10 years). Waymo has pilot programs currently underw

I think 50 years is being overly pessimistic. Self-driving in temperate climates is probably pretty close (<10 years). Waymo has pilot programs currently underway in California and Arizona[1][2]. [1]: https://techcrunch.com/2019/09/16/waymos-robotaxi-pilot-surpassed-6200-riders-in-its-first-month-in-california/ https://techcrunch.com/2019/09/16/waymos-robotaxi-pilot-surp... [2]: https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/10/20907901/waymo-driverless-cars-email-customers-arizona https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/10/20907901/waymo-driverles...

axguscbklp 7y ago
The thing is, I see no way to have full self driving without AGI. And I don't think humanity is anywhere close to developing AGI. Without AGI you can have level 4++ self driving, maybe, but not level 5.
- xkjkls 7y ago
  How much difference does 4++ vs 5 make for the predicted consequences of self-driving cars though? That's the important thing.
  - axguscbklp 7y ago
    I would say that I would feel comfortable falling asleep in a 5 while it is driving nontrivial distance and/or road conditions, but I would not feel comfortable doing so in a 4++.
    - Dylan16807 7y ago
      Why? Plain old 4 is supposed to be the "safe to sleep" level.
    - xkjkls 7y ago
      How often do you have drives when you need to fall asleep though?
- rifung 7y ago
  > The thing is, I see no way to have full self driving without AGI. Why? AGI seems like a significantly harder problem than self driving cars (itself a hard problem admittedly). What I personally think will happen is we'll meet somewhere in the middle: we can redesign roads/cars to make solving the problem of self driving easier.
  - axguscbklp 7y ago
    Because of all the edge cases that humans can handle a good amount of the time because we have a lot of intelligence compared to any computer. But I agree with you that if we meet in the middle, that could actually work well.

axguscbklp 7y ago

The thing is, I see no way to have full self driving without AGI. And I don't think humanity is anywhere close to developing AGI. Without AGI you can have level 4++ self driving, maybe, but not level 5.

xkjkls 7y ago
How much difference does 4++ vs 5 make for the predicted consequences of self-driving cars though? That's the important thing.
- axguscbklp 7y ago
  I would say that I would feel comfortable falling asleep in a 5 while it is driving nontrivial distance and/or road conditions, but I would not feel comfortable doing so in a 4++.
  - Dylan16807 7y ago
    Why? Plain old 4 is supposed to be the "safe to sleep" level.
  - xkjkls 7y ago
    How often do you have drives when you need to fall asleep though?
rifung 7y ago
> The thing is, I see no way to have full self driving without AGI. Why? AGI seems like a significantly harder problem than self driving cars (itself a hard problem admittedly). What I personally think will happen is we'll meet somewhere in the middle: we can redesign roads/cars to make solving the problem of self driving easier.
- axguscbklp 7y ago
  Because of all the edge cases that humans can handle a good amount of the time because we have a lot of intelligence compared to any computer. But I agree with you that if we meet in the middle, that could actually work well.